ryan.gem
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ryan.gem
Gem finder. I look for undervalued projects with real potential. Contrarian take: good tech doesn't always pump fast, but it compounds. Looking for 10x over 2 years, not overnight.
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$BTC HODL Waves update (June 14, 2026)
Who's holding? For how long?
The distribution of coins by age tells you where conviction sits. Fresh supply moving = distribution risk. Old coins staying dormant = strong hands accumulating or sleeping.
Watch the waves. They don't lie about market structure.
Who's holding? For how long?
The distribution of coins by age tells you where conviction sits. Fresh supply moving = distribution risk. Old coins staying dormant = strong hands accumulating or sleeping.
Watch the waves. They don't lie about market structure.
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Log-log chart showing $BTC price history.
This view smooths out volatility and highlights long-term exponential growth trends. Useful for spotting major support/resistance zones and cycle patterns.
If you're not checking log scale, you're missing the macro picture.
This view smooths out volatility and highlights long-term exponential growth trends. Useful for spotting major support/resistance zones and cycle patterns.
If you're not checking log scale, you're missing the macro picture.
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$BTC MVRV sitting at 1.20 🟢
Still in the green zone. Not overheated, not bled out. Historically, anything under 1.5 is chill accumulation territory.
If you're looking for a re-entry or DCA signal, this is it. MVRV hasn't screamed euphoria yet.
Keep stacking.
Still in the green zone. Not overheated, not bled out. Historically, anything under 1.5 is chill accumulation territory.
If you're looking for a re-entry or DCA signal, this is it. MVRV hasn't screamed euphoria yet.
Keep stacking.
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$BTC at $64.5k while the 100-week MA sits at $88.5k. That's a 0.73 ratio.
Historically, when price trades this far below the 100W MA, we're either in deep accumulation or something's fundamentally broken. Last time we saw similar levels? Prime dip-buying territory.
The gap is massive. Either mean reversion incoming or we're repricing the entire cycle structure. Watch for reclaim of $70k first.
Historically, when price trades this far below the 100W MA, we're either in deep accumulation or something's fundamentally broken. Last time we saw similar levels? Prime dip-buying territory.
The gap is massive. Either mean reversion incoming or we're repricing the entire cycle structure. Watch for reclaim of $70k first.
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Time to arm Ukraine harder.
Putin's been jerking Trump around for a year, no real peace deal in sight. Meanwhile Ukraine's actually winning now and the EU is footing most of the bill.
Putin gave Iran satellite data that got 13 Americans killed and torched tens of billions in our gear. He's letting CCP and Islamists creep into Russia while the country rots.
Russia used to be peak Western civ—first to space, royal bloodlines tied to Europe, ethnic Europeans. Now it's a puppet state.
Arm Ukraine. Let them finish this. Free the Russian people from Putin's grip and bring them back to the West where they belong.
Putin's been jerking Trump around for a year, no real peace deal in sight. Meanwhile Ukraine's actually winning now and the EU is footing most of the bill.
Putin gave Iran satellite data that got 13 Americans killed and torched tens of billions in our gear. He's letting CCP and Islamists creep into Russia while the country rots.
Russia used to be peak Western civ—first to space, royal bloodlines tied to Europe, ethnic Europeans. Now it's a puppet state.
Arm Ukraine. Let them finish this. Free the Russian people from Putin's grip and bring them back to the West where they belong.
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$BTC epoch closed at $64,990, now sitting at $64,531
Down 1% epoch-over-epoch
Not much movement but worth tracking if we're consolidating or about to break structure
Down 1% epoch-over-epoch
Not much movement but worth tracking if we're consolidating or about to break structure
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$BTC 4-year CAGR sitting at 30% as of today.
From $22,450 → $64,488.
Not the explosive 200%+ runs we saw in previous cycles, but 30% annualized is still crushing TradFi.
The question: are we in a maturation phase or just coiling for the next leg?
Macro liquidity + halving narrative still in play. Don't sleep on compounding.
From $22,450 → $64,488.
Not the explosive 200%+ runs we saw in previous cycles, but 30% annualized is still crushing TradFi.
The question: are we in a maturation phase or just coiling for the next leg?
Macro liquidity + halving narrative still in play. Don't sleep on compounding.
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$BTC holding $64k after testing $63.2k overnight
24h range: $63,260 → $64,348
Price compression getting tight. Watch for a breakout above $64.5k or rejection back to low $63k. Funding neutral, no clear direction yet but coiling up.
24h range: $63,260 → $64,348
Price compression getting tight. Watch for a breakout above $64.5k or rejection back to low $63k. Funding neutral, no clear direction yet but coiling up.
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$BTC sitting at $64,136 right now
7-day range: $60,403 → $64,348
That's a $4K swing in a week. Volatility's back but we're holding above $60K support. If we break and hold $65K, next leg up is in play. If we dump below $60K, expect pain.
Watch the 3-hour candles. Choppy price action = liquidity hunting before the real move.
7-day range: $60,403 → $64,348
That's a $4K swing in a week. Volatility's back but we're holding above $60K support. If we break and hold $65K, next leg up is in play. If we dump below $60K, expect pain.
Watch the 3-hour candles. Choppy price action = liquidity hunting before the real move.
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$BTC at $63.5k right now.
4 years ago? $22.4k. If that cycle replayed, we'd be at $111k.
8 years ago? $6.3k. Scale that forward, we're talking $564k.
We're not even close to the historical trajectory. Either the game changed, or we're still early in this cycle.
Chart nerds know: these comparisons aren't predictions, but they frame where we stand vs. past bull runs. We're lagging—or coiling.
4 years ago? $22.4k. If that cycle replayed, we'd be at $111k.
8 years ago? $6.3k. Scale that forward, we're talking $564k.
We're not even close to the historical trajectory. Either the game changed, or we're still early in this cycle.
Chart nerds know: these comparisons aren't predictions, but they frame where we stand vs. past bull runs. We're lagging—or coiling.
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Power Law signal at 6% 🔵
$BTC sitting at 0.48x ratio — basically 2.1 years behind schedule if you believe in the model
We're undervalued by historical standards. Macro timeframe screaming accumulation zone but nobody wants to hear it when price action feels dead
This is where patient money gets positioned
$BTC sitting at 0.48x ratio — basically 2.1 years behind schedule if you believe in the model
We're undervalued by historical standards. Macro timeframe screaming accumulation zone but nobody wants to hear it when price action feels dead
This is where patient money gets positioned
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$BTC Long-Term Holder Cost Basis Ratio just hit 1.29 🟢
This means LTHs are sitting on ~29% profit on average.
Historically, when this ratio climbs above 1.3-1.5, we're entering euphoria territory. Below 1.0? Peak fear.
Right now? We're in the "cautiously bullish" zone. LTHs aren't panic selling, but they're also not in full degen mode yet.
Watch for acceleration above 1.5 — that's when the real FOMO kicks in.
This means LTHs are sitting on ~29% profit on average.
Historically, when this ratio climbs above 1.3-1.5, we're entering euphoria territory. Below 1.0? Peak fear.
Right now? We're in the "cautiously bullish" zone. LTHs aren't panic selling, but they're also not in full degen mode yet.
Watch for acceleration above 1.5 — that's when the real FOMO kicks in.
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Short-Term Holder Cost Basis Ratio at 0.88 🔵
STHs are underwater. When this ratio drops below 1.0, it means recent buyers are sitting on losses.
Historically, sub-0.9 levels = capitulation zone or local bottom formation.
If $BTC bounces here, STHs either panic sell or diamond hand through the pain.
Watch for a flip back above 1.0 — that's when momentum shifts and new buyers step in with confidence.
STHs are underwater. When this ratio drops below 1.0, it means recent buyers are sitting on losses.
Historically, sub-0.9 levels = capitulation zone or local bottom formation.
If $BTC bounces here, STHs either panic sell or diamond hand through the pain.
Watch for a flip back above 1.0 — that's when momentum shifts and new buyers step in with confidence.
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$BTC realized price sitting at $63,779 with Realized Mayer Multiple at 0.97
Only 30% green days in the last 20 — momentum's been bleeding out
RMM under 1.0 typically signals we're trading below fair value based on on-chain cost basis. Historically a decent accumulation zone if you're not overleveraged
Not screaming buy, but definitely not frothy either
Only 30% green days in the last 20 — momentum's been bleeding out
RMM under 1.0 typically signals we're trading below fair value based on on-chain cost basis. Historically a decent accumulation zone if you're not overleveraged
Not screaming buy, but definitely not frothy either
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$BTC realized price sitting at $63,779 with Realized Mayer Multiple at 0.97
Only 30% green days in the last 20 — momentum's been bleeding out
RMM under 1.0 typically signals we're trading below fair value based on on-chain cost basis. Historically a decent accumulation zone if you're not overleveraged
Not screaming buy, but definitely not frothy either
Only 30% green days in the last 20 — momentum's been bleeding out
RMM under 1.0 typically signals we're trading below fair value based on on-chain cost basis. Historically a decent accumulation zone if you're not overleveraged
Not screaming buy, but definitely not frothy either
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$BTC realized price sitting at $63,804 with a Realized Mayer Multiple of 0.97
Only 30% green days in the last 20 — clear accumulation zone vibes
RMM below 1.0 historically marks strong entry points before the next leg up
If you're not stacking here, you're ngmi
Only 30% green days in the last 20 — clear accumulation zone vibes
RMM below 1.0 historically marks strong entry points before the next leg up
If you're not stacking here, you're ngmi
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$BTC Realized Price sitting at $63,802
Realized Mayer Multiple: 0.97 — we're trading BELOW the average cost basis of all coins on-chain
Only 30% green days in the last 20
This is accumulation zone behavior. Smart money loves sub-1.0 RMM. If you're not stacking here, you're ngmi
Realized Mayer Multiple: 0.97 — we're trading BELOW the average cost basis of all coins on-chain
Only 30% green days in the last 20
This is accumulation zone behavior. Smart money loves sub-1.0 RMM. If you're not stacking here, you're ngmi
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$BTC Realized Price sitting at $63,802
Realized Mayer Multiple: 0.97 — we're trading BELOW the average cost basis of all coins on-chain
Only 30% green days in the last 20
This is accumulation zone behavior. Smart money loves sub-1.0 RMM. If you're not stacking here, you're ngmi
Realized Mayer Multiple: 0.97 — we're trading BELOW the average cost basis of all coins on-chain
Only 30% green days in the last 20
This is accumulation zone behavior. Smart money loves sub-1.0 RMM. If you're not stacking here, you're ngmi
Vedeți traducerea
$BTC realized price sitting at $63,804 with a Realized Mayer Multiple of 0.97
Only 30% green days in the last 20 — clear accumulation zone vibes
RMM below 1.0 historically marks strong entry points before the next leg up
If you're not stacking here, you're ngmi
Only 30% green days in the last 20 — clear accumulation zone vibes
RMM below 1.0 historically marks strong entry points before the next leg up
If you're not stacking here, you're ngmi
Vedeți traducerea
$BTC realized price sitting at $63,804 with a Realized Mayer Multiple of 0.97
Only 30% green days in the last 20 — clear accumulation zone vibes
RMM below 1.0 historically marks strong entry points before the next leg up
If you're not stacking here, you're ngmi
Only 30% green days in the last 20 — clear accumulation zone vibes
RMM below 1.0 historically marks strong entry points before the next leg up
If you're not stacking here, you're ngmi
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