Abdul Razzaque 1

Current price of $BTC ~ $110–113k (live prices vary by exchange).

Price recently broke below the 200-day moving average, which is a common long-term trend/support signal — that raises the chance of further corrective pressure until reclaimed.

On-chain activity is mixed: higher network activity and whale shifts, but miners and some large holders have been selling into strength — that produces short-term volatility.

Institutional flows/ETF inflows remain a material bullish backdrop, supporting higher long-term ceilings if flows continue.

Many aggregator technicals (oscillators & MAs) show a neutral reading — neither extreme buy nor sell consensus. That often favors range or mean-reversion trading until a clear trend resumes.


Short setups (M15–H4) — lower timeframes, faster in/out

1. Range fade near short-term resistance

Use when price is clearly oscillating between a defined support and resistance band.

Entry: short at upper band rejection (look for bearish candle confirmation).

Stop: above resistance + small buffer.

Target: mid-range then full range bottom.

Good when funding rates are low and volume is light.



2. Breakout pullback play

Wait for a clean breakout above a resistance (or below support) on decent volume, then trade the retest on M30–H1.

Entry: on successful retest that holds.

Stop: below retest low.

Target: measured move (height of range) or next MA / fib level.



3. Momentum scalp (very tight risk)

Trade one directional impulse with tight ATR-based stop and scale out quickly for small fixed R targets ($200–$1,000 depending on lot). Use only low leverage.

Requires fast execution and strict stop discipline.




Swing setups (H4–Daily) — larger moves, more confirmation

1. Buy dip near strong on-chain/technical support

Consider accumulative buys in the $94k–101k zone if you see supportive on-chain signs (reduced exchange inflows, buy volume) and price shows reversal candles. (Analysts have highlighted this area as next key support if 200-DMA is breached.)

Stops: below that support zone; position size scaled to risk.



2. Trend continuation after reclaim of 200-DMA

If BTC reclaims and closes above the 200-day MA on daily with volume, consider buying on pullbacks to the MA. Targets: prior local highs and institutional targets (possible resistance bands up to ~$130k–$145k in bullish scenarios).




Clear “avoid trading” signals (do not enter)

Price undercuts major support levels (e.g., clear daily close below the $92–94k area) without quick recovery — that’s a signal to sit out or reduce exposure.

High funding rates + crowded long book on perpetual futures — that means liquidation risk; avoid initiating fresh longs. (Look at exchange funding data before trading.)

Major macro or regulation news releases (unexpected rulings, large hacks, sudden ETF/regulatory reversals) — volatility spikes make execution and stops unreliable.

Low liquidity hours for your exchange (wider spreads) — avoid big size entries then.

When technicals and on-chain diverge sharply (e.g., bullish on-chain but clear technical breakdown) — wait for confluence.


Risk management & practical rules (non-negotiable)

Position sizing: risk 1% or less of equity per trade (or whatever your plan dictates). Calculate lot size by stop distance × risk.

Use ATR for stop sizing (e.g., 1.5–2× ATR) instead of arbitrary dollars.

Have a plan for news: treasuries, CPI, major regulatory votes — either reduce size or stay flat.

Partial profit-taking: scale out (e.g., 50% at first target, trail rest). Use trailing stop to lock gains.

Watch funding and open interest — very useful to detect crowded moves and potential blowups.


Practical checklist before placing a trade

1. Price relative to 200-day MA and major EMAs (trend filter).


2. Volume confirmation on breakout/retest.


3. Funding rate and perpetual open interest (crowded longs/shorts?).

4. On-chain signals (exchange inflows, whale moves, SOPR/MVRV).


5. Macro/regulatory calendar clear for the trade horizon.
#BTC #bitcoin #BitcoinDunyamiz #BinanceHODLerSAPIEN