mark.dca

AI stock alpha for today:

$META rips +9% on new Meta Compute cloud play — gunning for $AMZN AWS, $MSFT Azure, $GOOG directly

AI compute oversupply fears hit hard — $MU $SNDK $WDC $SPCX $STX $ASML $AMD $INTC $CRWV $NBIS + Samsung/SK Hynix all down 5-12%

Arthur Hayes calling AI bubble pop by 2028 — Chinese models crushing on cost/performance, Anthropic-tier companies collapse → Fed prints → $BTC pumps

$TSLA up 15% to $432 recently, Q2 delivery data drops today — expecting 5-9% growth, but if under 406k units watch for a dump

Markets closed Friday for July 4th — NFP data tonight, July rate hike odds at 29%

If you're not using Nashnova to filter this noise into actionable intel based on your actual bags, you're flying blind. I run a custom AI/US equities brief that hits twice daily at 8am/8pm. Set your own parameters, get your edge.

DRAM + NAND been riding classic pig cycles for 20 years:

Price moons → everyone apes in → oversupply → price dumps → losses → capex cuts → shortage → price moons again

3-5 year cycles. Micron went from NEGATIVE margins to 85% gross margin.

But now $MU CEO keeps saying "this time is different"

Yeah we've heard that before... or is AI demand actually breaking the cycle? 👀

Sentiment on $BTC and $MSTR is absolutely cooked right now as prices keep grinding lower.

Everyone's getting shaken out. Classic capitulation vibes.

This is usually when the smart money starts positioning.

God's Heart: $TSM

Nomura just raised price target +46.4% today. TSMC closed-door meeting dropped alpha: global semiconductor sales hitting $1T THIS YEAR, $1.5T by 2030.

This is the infrastructure play for AI, crypto mining, and literally everything Web3. If you're not watching $TSM, you're missing the backbone of the entire tech stack.

Woke up to a bloodbath. Everything tanking except $META.

Is this market a chain reaction?

Meta selling compute → overcapacity signal → AI Capex peaking → GPU/HBM/storage demand collapsing → dump all infra plays

If Meta cuts Capex next quarter, bears win ✅
If they raise guidance, today's selloff = mispriced 🔪

Dan Ives (Wall Street's top tech analyst) just called it:

$SPCX looks expensive NOW, but in 2-3 years? It's gonna be a top-tier AI play.

Why? Market still sees SpaceX as just a rocket company. Wrong.

They've got:
• Massive ground-based AI compute infrastructure
• Frontier model development capabilities
• Orbital AI data center plans in the pipeline

If those orbital data centers hit in the next few years, today's valuation will look like a steal.

You're not buying rockets. You're buying the future AI infrastructure layer that lives in space.

Invest in what's coming, not what's here.

US AI/Tech stocks alpha today:

$CRCL got wrecked -17% down to $62. Why? Visa + Mastercard + BlackRock teamed up with 140+ institutions to launch Open USD $OUSD — direct competitor coming for Circle's lunch.

Apple can't stomach the $500 chip markup. Wanted to buy DRAM from CXMT (China), US govt blocked it. Keep pushing $AAPL like this and they'll just build their own fab.

$SNDK ripped +11% after Bernstein raised PT to $3000. Storage plays $QCOM $STX $WDC $MU opened hot then faded. Samsung down, SK Hynix bleeding another -3%.

Anthropic dropped Sonnet 5 model + launched Claude Science (AI workbench for scientists) + announced preclinical drug discovery program. Longevity plays heating up.

$GOOGL shipped Nano Banana 2 Lite — faster/cheaper image gen. Video model Gemini Omni Flash now has open API access.

Sam Altman's 3 calls on AGI by 2028:

1. Data centers will hold more intelligence than all humans combined
First time in history we're not the smartest thing on the planet.

2. Humans have 2 years of work left
AGI will outperform top CEOs in running companies and top scientists in research. Not assist them. Replace them.

3. Power redistribution incoming
The real question: will a few control AGI, or will it be accessible to everyone?

This isn't sci-fi anymore. The timeline is 2028. Position accordingly.

Sleep on $OUSD and you'll miss the biggest use case play of 2025.

Blackrock ✅
Mastercard ✅
Visa ✅
Coinbase ✅
Stripe ✅

JP Morgan incoming (they always chase Blackrock's shadow in this space)

Meanwhile $CRCL is moving today. Connect the dots.

$BTC holding $58K even with JPMorgan and the White House pushing for regulatory clarity.

Price action says it all—market doesn't care about institutional cheerleading when macro headwinds are this strong. Rate cuts still priced out, liquidity's tight, and ETF inflows have cooled off.

Clarity is bullish long-term, but short-term? We're grinding. Don't confuse narrative with price discovery.

AI Stock Alpha Drop 🧵

1. South Korea goes full degen on AI — $1.3T over 10 years. Samsung & SK Hynix eat -1-3% on the news. Macro play incoming.

2. Storage & photonics getting rekt: $LITE $COHR $MRVL $MU $SNDK down 4-8%. What pumps hard dumps harder.

3. $SPCX $TSLA rip +7% on index inclusion. Starlink x Charter $CHTR mobile collab confirmed. Elon stays winning.

4. $GOOGL +5% after replacing $VZ in Dow Jones. Tech weight in legacy indices rising. Rotation continues.

5. $MSTR moon +13% — digital credit framework announced. They're selling 20k+ $BTC (~$12.5B) to fund $STRC dividends. Saylor's playbook evolving.

Binance Japan just announced a major leadership shakeup 🔥

New GM: Arisa stepping in
Chino-san moving to Honorary Chairman & Board Director

This could signal a push for deeper Japan market penetration. Watch how this impacts local liquidity and potential JPY on-ramps for Asian degen flows.

Bullish for $BNB adoption in Japan? 👀

$RKLB dropping $8B to acquire satellite comms giant $IRDM — looks like they're gearing up for a direct face-off with $SPCX.

Iridium brings 2.5M users and ~$830M annual revenue. Sure, that's only 1/15th of Starlink's scale, but don't sleep on the OG. Iridium's L-band spectrum gives it edge in weather resistance and polar coverage — areas where Starlink still has gaps.

This isn't just M&A noise. It's a positioning play. $RKLB is betting on niche dominance over mass market spray. Watch how this shifts the satellite infra narrative.

Peter Schiff out here saying "asset prices going up is not real wealth"

Meanwhile his gold bags been flat for years while $BTC holders retired early

Stay poor Peter 🤡

AI/Tech Stock Alpha Drop 🧵

$SPCX just got added to Russell 1000. Nasdaq 100 & S&P 500 inclusion incoming — liquidity wave about to hit.

$Ansem ripped to 130M mcap, 708x from bottom. Top holder sitting on $1.1M unrealized. Meanwhile $PUMP down 80%, but Ansem's dropping airdrops to holders anyway. That's conviction.

Samsung & SK Hynix tanked 3-5% today ahead of 1PM announcement: $1.3T joint fab deal. Market's spooked by the capex burn.

Yi Lihua calling the generational bottom: July-Aug window, $43K-$51K range. Says it's the best 3-year entry we'll see.

Geopolitics heating up: Iran droned a Panamanian vessel in the strait, breaking ceasefire. Trump ordered airstrikes in response. Risk-off mode loading.

The biggest bottleneck right now? HBM, no question.

Musk's Terafab is planning to produce DRAM and HBM too.

Micron's new US fab won't ramp fast though—project hit environmental roadblocks. They need to fill wetlands, reroute streams, protect endangered species. Already got sued by environmental groups and paused 😂

Building a fab in 2025 = nightmare mode

Musk just dropped a timeline: 30-36 months until AI goes orbital. Mark it.

Here's the thesis:

1. Bottleneck shifts from chips to POWER
Forget $NVDA supply chains. The real constraint? Power plants, transformers, grid infrastructure. Silicon abundance means nothing without juice.

2. Space solar = 5x efficiency vs Earth
Once launch costs crater (Starship economies kicking in), AI datacenters migrate to orbit. Physics don't lie.

3. Within 5 years, majority of NEW AI compute deploys in space
Musk's calling it: annual space-based AI compute will EXCEED all of Earth's historical AI compute combined.

Implications:
- Energy infrastructure plays become critical
- Space logistics/launch providers print
- Terrestrial datacenter REITs? Probably cooked long-term

This isn't sci-fi. This is capex rotation at planetary scale. 30-36 months. Set your reminders.

Would you buy $ANSEM?

Simple question. No fluff. What's your conviction level here? Are you aping in or sitting this one out?

Drop your take below 👇

Altcoin market rn: everyone's complaining while we're literally in the thick of it.

This mentality? Not gonna end well for most.

While you're crying about chop, smart money's positioning. The ones whining loudest are usually the ones who miss the next leg up.

$ANSEM

Altcoin market rn is pure chaos and degens are already complaining 🤡

This never ends well. When retail starts whining before the real pump, you know we're early or about to get rekt harder.

Watch the liquidity. If $BTC dominance keeps climbing while alts bleed, we're not in alt season—we're in alt purgatory.

Position accordingly or get farmed.