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Bitcoin (BTC) just recorded its worst month since June 2022, falling 20.48% amid contracting demand and a risk-off market environment.
Yet three on-chain indicators point to deepening Bitcoin capitulation and early signs of seller exhaustion.
Santiment Says ETF Outflows Near Capitulation Levels
On-chain analytics firm Santiment reported that Bitcoin ETFs have logged $8.475 billion in total net outflows since May 6.
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Bitcoin ETF Outflows Since May 6. Source: X/Santiment
However, the firm argued that fund flows work better as a sentiment gauge than a crash warning. Prices often move in the opposite direction of crowd expectations over time, the firm said.
“The bigger this streak of BTC outflows gets, the more we can reliably identify this stretch as frustration, fear, and retail capitulation rather than a fresh reason to panic,” the post read.
Santiment added that heavy redemptions suggest many weak hands have already left. Extended outflows would therefore strengthen the case that Bitcoin is approaching a “prime bottom zone.”
Underwater Supply Points to Investor Stress
Glassnode data points in the same direction. The firm said roughly 10.83 million BTC now sit at a loss, against 9.22 million in profit. This marks one of the sharpest declines in profitability during the current cycle.
Bitcoin Supply in Profit vs. Loss. Source: Glassnode
Historically, Glassnode noted, loss-making supply overtaking profitable supply has coincided with financial stress and widespread capitulation among newer participants. Meanwhile, long-term holders have returned to accumulation.
Still, the firm cautioned that a final volatility spike driven by capitulation cannot be ruled out.
“The data suggests Bitcoin is transitioning from a distribution phase toward one of accumulation, but confirmation is still needed. While the foundations for a longer-term recovery are gradually taking shape, the market may first need to endure one final test of conviction before a sustainable uptrend can emerge,” Glassnode said.
Bitcoin Net Supply Ratio Hits a 2022 Bear Market Low
AnalystDarkfost highlighted a third signal from Bitcoin’s Net UTXO Supply Ratio.
“This ratio has now been negative for a week and just reached -0.075, corresponding to a buy signal. The last time this happened was at the end of 2022, right at the end of the bear market,” he wrote.
He clarified that the signal does not detect a bottom. Still, the analyst noted that a growing number of indicators have hit extreme levels. In his view, this points to Bitcoin “entering a genuine devaluation phase.”
“We now have several signals pointing to seller exhaustion. The next step is a renewal of demand, and that could take some time,” Darkfost added.
Nonetheless, caution remains warranted. BeInCrypto highlighted that Bitcoin’s Coinbase Premium turned negative in mid-January near $95,583.
By February 24, BTC had crashed 33% to about $64,100. The current negative streak is longer. If the premium stays negative, the January precedent suggests downside risk persists.
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FBI Director Kash Patel disclosed a purchase of between $100,001 and $250,000 in MicroStrategy stock roughly six months after the trade, breaching the STOCK Act reporting window.
According to NOTUS, Patel bought the shares on November 21, 2025, but only reported the transaction to federal regulators on May 26, 2026, stating he had “inadvertently omitted” it from an earlier filing.
Why Kash Patel’s MicroStrategy Trade Draws Scrutiny
The delayed filing has raised questions because it falls outside the STOCK Act’s reporting window. The STOCK Act, the Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act, is a US federal law signed by former President Obama in April 2012.
The law requires covered federal officials to disclose securities trades worth at least $1,000 within 45 days. First-time violators face a $200 fine, which the Justice Department has not imposed on Patel so far, according to NOTUS.
MicroStrategy, rebranded as Strategy, ranks as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC). The firm also works as a contractor for the federal government and has done millions of dollars’ worth of business with the Justice Department, which oversees the FBI.
Meanwhile, the bureau itself investigates cryptocurrency fraud, and Patel has publicly promoted its enforcement record, including a $15 billion Bitcoin seizure announced in October 2025.
The overlap raises questions about federal officials trading shares of companies tied to their agencies. However, late STOCK Act filings are not uncommon. According to NOTUS, more than 30 members of Congress submitted overdue disclosures over the past year.
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Ethics Officials and Watchdogs Split on the Violation
Deputy Assistant Attorney General William Taylor reviewed the amended filing, which attributed the delay to a “miscommunication.” In a May 28 letter, he said,
“I continue to believe that Director Patel is in compliance with applicable laws and regulations governing conflicts of interest.”
However, Dylan Hedtler-Gaudette of the Project on Government Oversight said the disclosure was “absolutely” late under the statute.
“That’s violating the law — no other way to put it,” he stated.
The trade has also proven costly. MicroStrategy stock has lost nearly 48% since Patel’s purchase date. In late June, BeInCrypto reported that MSTR dropped below $100 for the first time since March 2024, before the company announced a financial overhaul plan.
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Crypto companies are entering public markets at a time when investors are asking harder questions about how these businesses actually make money.
A listed crypto company cannot rely only on adoption, user growth, or a strong brand. Public equity investors want to see revenue quality, margins, reserves, governance, client asset protection, and performance across weaker market cycles.
That shift is changing how the industry is judged. Exchanges, stablecoin issuers, miners, custody firms, data companies, and Bitcoin treasury businesses are all being measured against public-market expectations.
BeInCrypto spoke with Anton Efimenko, Co-Founder and Lead Expert at 8Blocks; Fernando Lillo Aranda, CMO at Zoomex; and Federico Variola, CEO of Phemex, about how IPOs and listings reshape expectations for crypto businesses.
A Listed Company Does Not Automatically Lift Its Token
Going public can give a crypto company more visibility. It can also make the business easier for traditional investors to track. But shareholders and token holders are often exposed to different economics.
Anton Efimenko, Co-Founder and Lead Expert at 8Blocks, said token holders should not assume an IPO will directly support token prices.
“Unfortunately, an IPO itself doesn’t really give anything to the crypto community. Many tokens are not tied to the issuer’s business. So even if the company goes public and reports strong annual profit, its token doesn’t have to increase in value. The token price won’t necessarily follow the stock price,” Efimenko said.
He added: “An IPO can bring visibility to the issuer, but it doesn’t guarantee profit for token holders.”
A listed share represents ownership in the company. A token may reflect access, governance, network activity, or market sentiment. Those links are often indirect.
This distinction is becoming more important as more crypto firms move toward public markets. Investors need to understand whether they are buying a company’s earnings power, a token’s utility, or broader exposure to crypto sentiment.
Institutional Access Still Depends on Risk Rules
Public listings can make crypto exposure easier for pension funds, banks, and asset managers. Some institutions cannot hold tokens directly, but they may be able to buy shares in a listed exchange, miner, stablecoin issuer, or custody company.
Efimenko said institutional access still depends on ratings and internal policy.
“Pension funds will be able to buy shares of crypto companies, but only if the rating of those shares matches the fund’s investment policy. For such large financial institutions, the asset’s rating matters a lot because they can’t afford to lose their depositors’ money,” he said.
Many institutions may still choose lower-yielding traditional assets over crypto-native returns if the risk profile is clearer.
“That’s why it’s easier for them to invest in US Treasuries at 3% annually than to stake USDT at 5.5%,” Efimenko said.
Tokenized Treasuries could create a middle ground. They may allow institutions to use digital asset systems while relying on the rating of the underlying government debt.
“But once Treasuries become tokenized assets, pension funds may be able to hold them on their balance sheets based on the rating of the underlying asset,” he said.
Exchanges and Stablecoin Issuers Have the Clearest Case
The experts were most confident about exchanges and stablecoin issuers as public-market businesses.
Fernando Lillo Aranda, CMO at Zoomex, said stablecoin companies have the strongest structural position because their revenue can become more recurring and less dependent on trading volumes.
“Stablecoin infrastructure is the strongest structural position. This model benefits from network effects, float economics, payments expansion, and increasingly becoming financial rails rather than pure crypto businesses. Revenue can become more recurring and less dependent on trading cycles,” Aranda said.
Stablecoin issuers can benefit from reserve income, payments growth, and wider institutional use. Their challenge is scrutiny around reserves, regulation, and concentration risk.
Exchanges also remain among the strongest crypto businesses when they execute well. They sit close to users, liquidity, and transaction activity.
“Exchanges offer the strongest cash generation (when executed well). Exchanges still monetize attention and liquidity better than most crypto businesses. The best ones evolve beyond trading into custody, cards, lending, staking, payments, launchpads, and brokerage layers. The challenge is cyclicality and fee compression,” Aranda said.
Federico Variola, CEO of Phemex, also placed exchanges and stablecoin issuers at the top of the public-market list.
“The strongest business models in public markets are, for sure, exchanges and possibly stablecoin issuers. Others will face certain constraints, whether because of their business model or because there is some seasonality in their revenue,” Variola said.
He added: “Exchanges and stablecoin companies tend to have a more stable baseline in terms of revenue and room for growth, especially exchanges.”
Exchanges still face pressure from market cycles, falling fees, regulation, and user trust. But compared with many crypto business models, their revenue engines are easier for public investors to understand.
The Less Visible Infrastructure Businesses May Age Better
Some of the strongest public-market crypto businesses may be less visible to retail investors.
Aranda pointed to custody, market services, analytics, data, and compliance providers as important long-term categories. These companies provide the operational layer institutions need before they allocate more capital to digital assets.
“Custody and market infrastructure offers a quiet but powerful category. Institutions entering digital assets need custody, reporting, settlement, compliance, and execution layers. This often behaves more like financial infrastructure than speculative crypto exposure,” Aranda said.
These firms may benefit from digital asset adoption without relying fully on token prices. Their revenue can come from enterprise contracts, reporting tools, surveillance systems, and compliance services.
Miners and Bitcoin Treasury Firms Face a Harsher Cycle Test
Miners and Bitcoin treasury companies can attract attention because they offer public-market exposure to Bitcoin. That can be useful for equity investors who want Bitcoin-linked upside without buying the asset directly.
The weakness is their exposure to market cycles.
Aranda said miners remain vulnerable to energy prices, hardware costs, and commodity-like economics.
“Miners. Public markets like the Bitcoin beta, but mining remains exposed to energy costs, hardware cycles, and commodity-like economics unless vertically integrated,” he said.
Bitcoin treasury companies face a different problem. They can raise capital around Bitcoin exposure, especially in bullish markets, but their operating value can become harder to defend over time.
“Bitcoin treasury companies. Very powerful for capital formation and attracting BTC exposure through equities, but harder to defend operationally. Over time they risk becoming viewed more as leveraged holding vehicles than operating businesses,” Aranda said.
Variola said treasury firms, miners, and other market-sensitive businesses are likely to face more pressure when crypto prices fall.
“I think treasury companies in particular are bound to suffer significant stress when the market turns bearish. The same can be said for miners and other firms that are more exposed to market volatility,” he said.
These companies may remain popular during strong Bitcoin cycles. Public investors, however, will keep asking whether they can create value beyond holding or producing Bitcoin.
Overall, the gist is that crypto’s public-market era will reward companies that can explain their business in financial terms. The firms that rely only on market excitement will face a harder audience.

The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for June on Thursday at 12:30 GMT.
With investors pricing in a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) policy outlook with the new Chairman Kevin Warsh at the helm, the underlying details of the employment report could influence the timing of a possible interest rate increase.
Payroll data is among the indicators that generally trigger a significant market reaction. Still, this time, with all eyes on the inflation front, only a dismal print could hurt the US Dollar in a meaningful way.
What to Expect From the Nonfarm Payrolls Report?
Investors expect NFP to rise by 110K following three consecutive months of surprisingly strong increases. The Unemployment Rate is seen holding steady at 4.3%, while the annual wage inflation, as measured by the change in the Average Hourly Earnings (AHE), is projected to edge higher to 3.5% from 3.4% in May.
TD Securities analysts note that they expect NFP to rise at a softer pace than what markets expect.
“We expect June payrolls to moderate to 80k (55k private, 25k government) after strong early‑2026 gains. Job growth broadened beyond healthcare, led by trade/transport and leisure, but should cool this month. Local governments may stay firm on World Cup effects. We see the Unemployment Rate edging down to 4.2% as participation dips. AHE likely moderated to 0.2% m/m (3.5% y/y),” they add.
The Automatic Data Processing (ADP) reported on Wednesday that private sector employment in the US grew by 98K in June. This print followed the 122K increase recorded in May and came in below the market expectation of 113K.
Similarly, National Bank of Canada Senior Economist Jocelyn Paquet forecasts a 90K increase in NFP and explains:
“Based on the weekly data released by ADP and previously published ‘soft’ employment indicators, such as S&P Global’s flash composite PMI, job creation likely remained fairly robust during the month, although not as robust as what we had been accustomed to between February and May. Layoffs, for their part, may have increased slightly, judging by the rise in initial jobless claims recorded between the May and June survey periods. These two factors combined should, in our view, result in an increase of 90K in nonfarm payrolls.”
How Will the US May Nonfarm Payrolls Affect EUR/USD?
Although crude Oil prices came down to levels seen since pre-US-Iran conflict, investors remain concerned over global inflation remaining sticky, mainly due to heightened costs of consumer electronics via AI-driven hardware demand.
As a result, the US Dollar (USD) has been outperforming its major rivals, supported by growing expectations for a tighter Fed policy.
Hammack Flags Broad Inflation, Keeps Rate Hike Option Alive
In an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack delivered a moderately hawkish message with the FXS Speechtracker score at 6.4/10.
This is slightly softer relative to the historical average of 7/10 but still signals a tightening bias. By stressing that the job market is “right around full employment” and that growth “looks good,” while warning that “inflation is still too high” and that rate hikes may need to be considered, the speech underscores a willingness to tighten policy despite concerns about the broader economy.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 34% probability of the Fed raising the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) as early as July, compared to a 6% chance seen in early June. Moreover, the probability of at least two rate increases by the end of 2026 now sits slightly above 40%.
Source: CME Group
Another positive surprise of 130K or higher in the headline NFP could feed into July rate hike projections and fuel another leg higher in the USD. In this scenario, EUR/USD could remain under bearish pressure and extend its downtrend in the near term.
On the other hand, a significantly disappointing print below 70K could trigger an upward correction in the pair. However, a steady bullish reversal is unlikely to materialize unless Fed policymakers shift their tone and put more emphasis on labor market conditions rather than the inflation outlook.
Given three consecutive months of very strong prints, however, a single NFP miss is likely to be overlooked, keeping any potential rebound in EUR/USD short-lived.
Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD:
“EUR/USD’s near-term technical outlook doesn’t point to oversold conditions and suggests that the bearish bias stays intact. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart remains below 40 after recovering from oversold territory and the pair trades slightly above the lower arm of the Bollinger Band.”
“On the downside, 1.1320-1.1280 (lower arm of the Bollinger Band, static level) forms the first support ahead of 1.1160 (static level) and 1.1000 (psychological level, static level).”
“Looking north, a strong resistance area could be spotted at the 1.1485-1.1500 region (20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), round level) before 1.1600 (round level, 50-day SMA) and 1.1650-1.1660 (200-day SMA, descending trend line, 100-day SMA).”

XRP price rose about 2% to trade near $1.05 on July 2, but the buying behind the move is thinning fast.
Long-term holders are adding less, futures traders are cutting exposure, and momentum is flashing an early warning. Together they suggest the 2% bounce may struggle to hold.
XRP Price Rises, but Momentum Refuses to Confirm
The 2% gain came on lighter trading volume than the days before it, since June 26. When price rises while volume falls, fewer buyers are behind each push higher. That leaves a weak base under the move.
The XRP RSI tells the same story. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum gauge that measures the speed of recent price moves, sits at 37.97, well below the neutral 50 line. Momentum is still soft even as price ticks up.
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There is a deeper warning. Price is printing lower highs while RSI prints higher highs, a setup called a developing hidden bearish divergence. It often signals that a downtrend is about to resume.
XRP Daily RSI And Volume: TradingView
This signal is not confirmed yet. It completes only if XRP fails to reclaim its recent swing high (around $1.069) and the next daily candle turns lower. For now, it is a building risk, not a done deal.
The people who know XRP best appear to see the same soft setup.
Long-Term Holders Cut Buying by About 11%
The XRP news from on-chain data backs the chart. HODLer Net Position Change, a Glassnode metric that tracks the net change in the supply held by long-term holders, fell about 11% to 213.6 million XRP on July 1, down from roughly 239.3 million XRP a day earlier on June 30.
That drop landed even as price climbed. In short, the steadiest holders slowed their buying into the minimal strength rather than chasing it.
XRP HODLer Net Position Change: Glassnode
The data suggests these investors may sense a stall ahead. When conviction buyers pull back by double digits, rebounds often lose their footing.
Yet a weaker bid does not guarantee a violent drop, and the futures market shows why.
Futures Bets Drop 11%, Which Softens Crash Risk
XRP open interest, the total value of active futures contracts, fell about 11% from $865.52 million on June 23 to $766.32 million now. Fewer open bets mean less leverage stacked on the market.
The XRP funding rate, a recurring fee that shows whether traders lean long or short, also stayed negative. That signals caution rather than crowded long bets, which leaves little fuel for a sharp downside flush.
XRP Open Interest And Funding: Santiment
This actually limits the downside. With so much leverage already cleared out, a pullback would have less forced selling to fuel it. Any drop would likely be shallow rather than steep.
That balance of soft momentum and cushioned downside now hands the decision to a few key XRP price levels.
XRP Price Levels Turn Critical Now
The XRP price meets first resistance at $1.069. A clean daily close above it would invalidate the hidden bearish divergence for now and reopen the upside.
Real strength arrives only above $1.099, the 0.618 Fibonacci level. Reclaiming it would swing some momentum back to buyers and support a firmer XRP price prediction.
On the downside, $1.046 is the first floor. A break there exposes the psychological $1.00 zone, with deeper XRP support levels near $0.979 if selling builds.
XRP Price Analysis: TradingView
Given the 11% holder pullback and the developing divergence, the bearish signal confirms if XRP rejects resistance and closes lower. The level at $1.069 separates a push toward $1.099 from a slide back toward the $1.00 zone.

France has recorded 77 crypto-related kidnappings, extortions, and attempts since January, Interior Minister Laurent Nuñez said, as he unveiled a security plan he called more ambitious to protect digital asset holders.
The figure marks a sharp rise from the previous year and puts the spotlight on France again as the global center of violent crypto crime.
Inside the French Security Plan To Counter Crypto Kidnappings
Nuñez addressed members of the Association pour le Développement des Actifs Numériques (ADAN) this week.
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Ce soir, je me suis rendu auprès des représentants et acteurs de la filière crypto pour leur redire que les services du ministère de l’Interieur sont à leurs côtés pour garantir leur sécurité. J’ai pu leur présenter notre nouveau plan d’actions en la matière, qui vient… pic.twitter.com/7BtMGbVQ2g
— Laurent Nuñez (@NunezLaurent) June 30, 2026
According to BFMTV, he outlined a plan built on three pillars.
Strengthening intelligence sharing: He called this “fundamental and extremely effective.” The focus is on gathering more intelligence on the criminal teams behind these crimes, since those ordering them are sometimes based abroad.
Strengthening the partnership with ADAN: This includes creating a network of experts to bring together industry players and relevant state agencies.
Strengthening operational coordination: Finally, he pointed to improving coordination between government departments to neutralize offenders, as well as deepening cooperation with foreign states where the perpetrators of these crimes are located.
Concern had been building for months. In April, officials said France had suffered at least 41 crypto-related kidnappings and home invasions. That pace equaled roughly one every 2 to 3 days.
Notable Cases Drive the Crackdown
The plan follows a run of cases in 2026. In February, intruders targeted the home of Binance France’s chief executive. He was not there, and they fled with two phones.
Other 2026 attacks turned costly. In March, fake police officers robbed a couple of 900,000 euros in Bitcoin (BTC). In April, two men extorted 700,000 euros from a family of five.
The violence had intensified through 2025. One of the notable cases in January that year was when kidnappers seized Ledger co-founder David Balland and his partner.
These cases highlight the need for stricter security measures in France. The reach of the new plan will test whether the state can protect the sector.
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Forward Industries, the largest corporate Solana (SOL) holder, saw its share price rise by double-digits on Wednesday.
The uptick came after the company revealed it bought over 500,000 Solana (SOL) in fiscal Q3 2026.
Forward Industries SOL Treasury Tops 7.5M
FWDI closed at $4.70 on July 1, up 11.37%. The gain extended a rally that began in late June, when SOL started to recover. That rebound has offered relief to a stock weighed down by a broader 2026 downturn.
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Forward Industries Stock Performance. Source: Google Finance
According to the announcement, the firm acquired the tokens at an average price of about $79 each. Forward held 7.55 million SOL as of June 30, 2026.
SOL-per-fully diluted share rose to 0.0729 from 0.0669 in the prior quarter, a 36% annualized growth rate. Furthermore, shares outstanding fell to 73.85 million from 76.31 million.
Meanwhile, the company sold 93,642 shares through its at-the-market program during the quarter. Forward also cited its recent inclusion in the Russell 2000 and Russell 3000 indexes.
“By repurchasing shares when Forward trades at a discount to NAV and issuing equity when our shares trade at a premium, we dynamically allocate capital in a way that compounds SOL per share and enhances long-term intrinsic value,” CIO Ryan Navi said.
Losses Still Weigh on the Largest SOL Holder
The buying spree came after a painful stretch. Forward recorded a $283.1 million net loss for the quarter ended March 31, 2026, driven by fair-value markdowns on its SOL stack. Revenue still quadrupled year over year on staking rewards.
Market conditions have since turned more favorable. SOL gained over 15% over the past week on strong network activity, outperforming large-cap cryptocurrencies,BeInCrypto Markets data shows.
Solana (SOL) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Markets
The coming months will test whether SOL’s recovery can hold, a swing that flows directly to Forward’s balance sheet as the largest SOL holder.
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OpenAI has reportedly proposed giving the US government a 5% stake, a position valued at nearly $42.6 billion.
The Financial Times reported the story on Thursday. The administration’s appetite for the deal is unknown.
OpenAI Reportedly Offers Trump Administration 5% Stake
CEO Sam Altman raised the 5% figure during initial talks with President Donald Trump’s team, per the FT. According to him, allowing the public to hold a financial interest in the company is the best way to distribute the benefits created by AI.
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Based on OpenAI’s latest valuation, a 5% equity stake would be worth approximately $42.6 billion. The company secured a record funding round in March, pushing its post-money valuation to $852 billion.
OpenAI is also preparing for an initial public offering (IPO). It filed confidentially with the SEC in June but emphasized that timing remains flexible.
The proposal also calls for other US AI firms to transfer comparable equity stakes to the government. However, it remains uncertain whether the firms would adopt the plan.
The concept has a long paper trail. Altman first floated government ownership to Trump personally in early 2025, NOTUS reported. A source told CNBC in early June that the discussions had been in progress for over 12 months.
OpenAI and the White House did not immediately respond to BeInCrypto’s requests for comment sent outside regular business hours.
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Senator Cynthia Lummis defended the Clarity Act against Senator Elizabeth Warren, rejecting claims that the digital-asset bill creates illicit finance loopholes and pointing to more than 16 safeguards written into the legislation.
The Wyoming Republican responded after Warren argued that adversaries exploit crypto to move billions and that the bill would weaken standards. Their clash comes as the Senate races against a narrow legislative calendar.
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More evidence that our adversaries exploit crypto to move billions. The Clarity Act, as it's currently written, would make this problem worse. Congress should be strengthening illicit finance standards, not creating new loopholes. pic.twitter.com/61lqFgRntH
— Elizabeth Warren (@SenWarren) June 28, 2026
Lummis Points to Built-In Safeguards
Lummis countered that the Clarity Act strengthens illicit finance rules rather than weakening them. She listed specific provisions in a public rebuttal.
Lummis noted that Section 201 applies the Bank Secrecy Act and anti-money laundering (BSA/AML) rules to crypto. Section 303 adds new sanctions aimed at Iran. Section 305 lets exchanges freeze dirty money.
“If you don’t like crypto, then say it, but stop these baseless attacks,” she said.
Illicit finance concerns have become a central sticking point for the legislation. Law enforcement groups and Catholic coalitions pushed back in separate letters last month.
Their objections targeted Section 604, the bill’s developer safe harbor. Critics say broad exemptions could weaken oversight of criminal fund flows.
Clarity Act Passage Odds Slide on Polymarket as Deadline Nears
Meanwhile, the timing raises the stakes for the bill. The Senate returns from recess on July 13, leaving a narrow window before the August break.
The bill must clear the Senate by then to stand a chance of becoming law this year. That path requires 60 votes, including at least seven Democrats.
Prediction markets have turned cautious. On Polymarket, the odds of the Clarity Act becoming law in 2026 fell to 39%, down from 64% in early June.
Polymarket Odds for the Clarity Act Being Signed Into Law in 2026. Source: Polymarket
Analysts have shifted, too. Galaxy Research now puts the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law in 2026 at 50%, down from 60% on June 5, citing the shrinking Senate calendar.
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Michael Saylor reiterated on X that Strategy’s corporate objective remains for STRC to trade between $99 and $100, as the preferred stock attempts to climb back from its all-time low set on June 26.
The comment came as STRC rebounded from that record low of $71.25 to around $87.46 off the back of a new capital framework announcement. Even so, the gap to par remains wide with Bitcoin’s price also languishing.
STRC Still Trades Below Saylor’s Target
STRC, Strategy’s Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock, is not common stock. It is a preferred security designed to trade near a $100 face value. Strategy adjusts its dividend rate monthly to keep the price anchored, unlike common shares.
Bitcoin (BTC) had dropped below $60,000 in the same week STRC recorded its low, deepening a preferred stock crash that had already alarmed investors. STRC has since recovered but the stock is still about $13 short of the par value Saylor says remains the company’s goal.
STRC is mounting a recovery thanks to its new capital framework announcement, but it still has more to climb. Image Source: Trading View
On Monday, June 29, Strategy raised STRC’s dividend rate by 50 basis points to 12%. The increase takes effect for July record dates and is part of the capital management overhaul Strategy announced the same day.
Strategy reviews the rate using STRC’s trading level, Bitcoin’s price and volatility, and its own cash reserves. It will not raise the rate automatically just because the stock trades below par.
“As Strategy disclosed Monday: our corporate objective is for $STRC to trade over time at $99–$100.”
Saylor
As Strategy disclosed Monday: our corporate objective is for $STRC to trade over time at $99–$100. https://t.co/FbXiLlA7Zw
— Michael Saylor (@saylor) July 1, 2026
The tweet repeats language from Monday’s press release without adding new detail. Its timing during STRC’s rebound suggests Strategy wants the market to read the recovery as validation of its plan.
The reiteration follows weeks of criticism from Ripple (XRP) CEO Brad Garlinghouse. He called STRC’s slide a damning indictment of Strategy’s financing model. Rosen Law Firm has also opened a securities investigation into the company’s disclosures.
Whether STRC can climb back to par depends largely on Bitcoin’s trajectory. Bitcoin remains the primary driver of Strategy’s capital structure and dividend coverage.

Meta’s plan to sell surplus computing power hit chip stocks hard on Wall Street. Meta’s own shares climbed nearly 9% on the news.
The announcement flipped years of assumed AI compute scarcity into a supply warning. It erased billions in semiconductor and neocloud value in a single session.
A Supply Signal Rattles Wall Street
Meta is building a business called Meta Compute. The unit will lease idle data center capacity to outside clients. The approach mirrors SpaceX’s model. SpaceX has rented spare capacity to firms including Anthropic.
Meta’s stock price jumped above $600 on the news of Meta Compute. Image Source: Trading View
For years, investors rewarded chip suppliers on one premise. They believed AI demand always outstripped supply. Meta’s admission of excess capacity broke that premise. Recent Nvidia institutional money flow data already show large investors pulling back.
Micron sank more than 10% on July 1. SanDisk, Intel and AMD each lost between 6.9% and 10.6%. Nvidia slipped just 1.25%, a modest decline that stood out against the broader rout.
Neoclouds and Big Tech Diverge
CoreWeave and Nebius rent GPU capacity to AI developers and saw their stocks fall 14% and 17% respectively on fears that Meta will undercut their pricing.
Meta has paid for similar cloud services before, but its shift into the same business now puts it in direct competition with its own vendors.
Other Magnificent 7 members gained ground. Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Tesla all closed higher as some strategists link the split to AI spending cycle winners rotating away from pure hardware plays.
South Korea Feels the Spillover
The sell-off spread to Asia as Samsung and SK Hynix memory stocks fell more than 7% and 9% respectively in early trading and the KOSPI triggered another trading halt. The move extended a pattern from a prior Big Tech selloff spillover that hit Asian chipmakers earlier this year.

Aave logged its largest single-day wallet growth in nearly five years, with 1,806 new addresses created on Ethereum on June 30, according to on-chain analytics firm Santiment.
The surge lines up with a $3,500 price target on Aave (AAVE) from Standard Chartered, a bank that has repeatedly cut its own Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) forecasts this year.
A Familiar Pattern of Forecasts
Standard Chartered initiated coverage of AAVE with a target implying nearly 50 times upside by 2030, built on an Aave $3,500 forecast tied to tokenized assets flooding decentralized finance (DeFi). The bank made a similar call on Uniswap (UNI) weeks earlier, and that forecast also triggered a jump in Uniswap network activity before it cooled off.
✍️ TL;DR: AAVE (On Ethereum) ends June with its highest network growth day since 2021📊 Metrics used: Network Growth🔗 Link to chart: https://t.co/PYPTArPYdg📈 Aave (on Ethereum) has just seen 1,806 new wallets created in 24 hours, marking its strongest network growth day… pic.twitter.com/FbwYRgFdg0
— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) July 1, 2026
The same research desk cut its 2026 Bitcoin target from $150,000 to $100,000 and slashed its Ethereum price target 47%, from $7,500 to $4,000, within the same three-month stretch.
“We forecast significant upside for digital asset token prices into year-end, and we think Aave has moved beyond the April incident.”Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered
That April incident was the KelpDAO exploit, which drained roughly $292 million and fed a KelpDAO exploit fallout that briefly cut Aave’s deposits nearly in half. Aave has since restarted its AAVE buyback program under Aavenomics 3.0, confirmed by founder Stani Kulechov, adding a direct revenue-to-token mechanism behind the current move.
Whether new wallets convert into deposits and borrowing, rather than short-lived attention, will decide if Aave’s growth outlasts Standard Chartered’s own forecasting record.

The KOSPI sank below 8,000 on July 2. The drop pushed the Korea Exchange (KRX) to activate a sell-side sidecar within minutes of the opening bell.
The Korea Exchange suspended program trading on KOSPI-listed shares for five minutes. Heavy selling in semiconductor stocks drove the move. The benchmark opened 4.46% lower and kept falling from there.
Another Halt in a Record-Breaking Year
The index had dropped 534.25 points, or 6.43%, to 7,769.16 by 9:51 a.m. local time. A sell-side sidecar triggers automatically once KOSPI 200 futures fall 5% or more for at least one minute.
The KOSPI Index has faced a lot of volatility of late; posting record highs, but also seeing sharp declines. Image Source: Trading View
Thursday’s pause is far from an isolated event. The exchange has repeatedly triggered sidecars and circuit breakers throughout 2026. Volatility this year has already topped the 2008 financial crisis, when the KOSPI set its prior annual sidecar record of 26 halts.
By late June, the KRX had logged close to 30 sidecar activations and five circuit breakers this year alone. Both figures already beat that 2008 tally.
Chipmakers Bear the Brunt
Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix together make up roughly half of the KOSPI’s market capitalization. The two chipmakers have repeatedly driven these swings. Their shares extended losses again Thursday, tracking a global chip stock selloff that started on Wall Street overnight.
The Nasdaq Composite slid 0.66% Wednesday. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF lost 5.4%. Micron Technology and Sandisk each dropped more than 10%. The rout followed weeks of sharp reversals in the KOSPI’s chip-driven rally, a rally that had pushed the index to record highs earlier this year.
Semiconductor stocks still dominate the index. Traders now face a familiar question: will Thursday’s selloff deepen further, or fade as quickly as prior swings have this year.

The Bitcoin Power Law, the model physicist Giovanni Santostasi has championed for over a decade, is now peer-reviewed science. The new study argues Bitcoin’s (BTC) long-term price growth follows a predictable mathematical trend rooted in network adoption.
Elsevier’s journal Nonlinear Science published the study online on June 29. Analyst Benjamin Cowen quickly joined the congratulations.
From Reddit Post to Peer-Reviewed Science
Santostasi, a former physics professor who spent years researching gravitational waves, first sketched the idea in a 2014 Reddit post. He noticed Bitcoin’s price climbing along a strikingly straight line when plotted on logarithmic scales.
For years, the theory lived on social media and community charts, which Santostasi expanded into a 2024 Medium essay. Critics dismissed it as curve fitting, the same charge leveled at Bitcoin’s famous rainbow chart.
Academics had connected Bitcoin’s value to network size before. Timothy Peterson published a Metcalfe’s Law analysis in 2018, and a Royal Society study followed in 2019. However, both treated Bitcoin’s growth rate as a number fitted to data, not one the math itself predicts.
That gap is what Santostasi and co-author Stephen Perrenod claim to close. They defended the model before independent reviewers, and the journal accepted it.
“Achievement unlocked! Power Law paper published. Thank you for all your support and constuctive criticism along the way,” Santostasi wrote in a post on X.
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Cowen, a nuclear engineering PhD who founded analytics firm Into The Cryptoverse in 2019, publicly congratulated him days later.
congrats! https://t.co/mHHNCHL6Uu
— Benjamin Cowen (@benjamincowen) July 1, 2026
What the Bitcoin Power Law Study Found
The paper analyzed 5,696 daily Bitcoin prices from July 2010 through February 2026. Across that stretch, one steady mathematical curve, known as a power law, explains about 96% of the price’s long-run variation.
The authors trace the pattern to two simple forces:
New users join Bitcoin in accelerating waves.
The same growth shape documented in a 1989 study of the US AIDS epidemic.
The network gains value as each newcomer connects with everyone already inside.
Multiplied together, those two effects predict almost exactly the growth rate Bitcoin has shown for 15 years. The prediction lands within 1.6% of the measured figure.
Speculation still matters, the authors argue. However, booms and busts wash in and out around the trend instead of driving it. The paper also lists conditions that would break the model, keeping the theory testable.
Can the Model Survive the Bear Market?
The timing adds intrigue. Bitcoin trades near $60,642, according to BeInCrypto Markets data. That is 43% lower over the past year and 52% below its October 2025 record of $126,080.
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto
Other popular frameworks have struggled in this downturn. Stock-to-flow has broken down, while Standard Chartered and Galaxy Digital stake out floors of $59,000 and $40,000 in the Bitcoin bottom debate.
Cycle-based tools face similar questions. The 500-day halving rule still points to a buy window in November 2026, while Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong defends the 4-year cycle.
The paper offers a direct answer to the survival question. Every earlier bear market stayed within the model’s normal range of swings. Stability tests found no structural breaks between 2011 and 2026.
The authors also identify five conditions that would break the trend, each with measurable early signs:
Floor violation (F1) — price falls more than 3 standard deviations below the trend line and stays there over a year. In 2025 terms, that floor was roughly $10,000.
Adoption collapse (F2) — address growth slows sharply below its cubic rate in rolling estimates, e.g., if a rival network starts absorbing Bitcoin’s marginal adopters.
Exponent drift (F3) — the growth exponent drifts outside the 5.0–7.0 band over a multi-year period.
Metcalfe breakdown (F4) — price and address count decouple (Metcalfe fit R² sustained below 0.7), meaning the market stops pricing Bitcoin as a network good.
R² collapse (F5) — the rolling 3-year fit of the price power law drops below 0.80 for two consecutive years.
However, the study’s data ends in February 2026, leaving the latest slide outside it. A peer-reviewed trend line does not guarantee future returns, and the authors avoid price targets.
That gap makes this bear market the Bitcoin Power Law’s first live test as published science.
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James Wynn has been liquidated twice in 24 hours for $982,000, this time shorting S&P 500 perpetual futures. The losses push his career tally past 200 liquidations.
On-chain intelligence firm Arkham flagged the losses on July 1. Another 0.35% rise in the index would end his remaining position.
From Crypto Blowups to S&P 500 Shorts
Wynn has not left Hyperliquid. Instead, his shift into traditional finance (TradFi) swaps Bitcoin (BTC) and meme coin bets for leveraged index perpetuals on the same exchange.
“JAMES WYNN LIQUIDATED FOR $1M IN TRADFI. James Wynn appears to have moved on from trading crypto, and is now shorting the S&P500 instead. He has been liquidated twice in the last 24 hours for a total of $982K. If the S&P500 rises 0.35% from here, he will be liquidated again,” Arkham indicated.
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The equity shorts extend a bearish stance from April. Back then, he outlined a defensive multi-asset strategy that included shorting US stocks.
Days later, a Bitcoin rally liquidated his 40x short. The blowup collapsed an account that once held $100 million to roughly $900.
A 2.5% rise was all it took. His new S&P 500 short leaves even less room for error.
James Wynn’s TradFi Pivot Ends in $1M Liquidation After 200+ Crypto Wipeouts. Source: Arkham on X James Wynn Liquidations Keep Climbing
Wynn entered April with 194 liquidations on record. Six more in two weeks pushed him past 200. One earlier streak, logged by Arkham, packed nine liquidations into two days and left his balance at $500.
The trader built his reputation by turning $7,600 into $25 million on the meme coin PEPE. From there, he moved to high-leverage perpetuals, where his profile remains publicly tracked.
He is not alone on Hyperliquid. Jeffrey Huang, known as Machi Big Brother, has logged 335 recorded liquidations. Meanwhile, Andrew Tate returned with a fresh 40x Bitcoin bet after 107 wipeouts of his own.
The pattern now travels across asset classes. In April, Bitcoin needed a 2.5% move to erase Wynn’s account. The S&P 500 needs just 0.35%.

SOL trades near $77 after a 16% weekly bounce, yet it remains about 74% below its record high. On-chain activity is climbing toward yearly highs as the price attempts to bottom.
The contrast sets up a decisive month for SOL. A bearish price structure on higher timeframes now collides with some of the strongest network readings Solana has posted this year.
Solana Network Activity Tests Yearly Highs
On-chain data paints a healthier picture than price alone suggests. The number of active addresses is rising sharply and retesting yearly highs just below 7 million.
SOL number of active addresses. Source: Glassnode
Transactions per second, measured on a seven-day average, are trending steeply higher toward 1,100. That reading is approaching a new all-time high for network throughput.
This creates a clear divergence. Network activity continues to grow while the token price sits near its lowest level in more than a year.
SOL number of transactions per second. Source: Glassnode
Much of the recent surge in throughput stems from meme coin launchpads and speculative airdrops on Solana. Sustained usage above these levels would strengthen the fundamental case for a price recovery.
Weekly Chart Keeps SOL in a Bearish Range
The weekly chart tells a more cautious story. SOL sits roughly 74% under its all-time high of $293 and trades at its lowest level since December 2023.
Price is currently defending the long-term 0.786 Fibonacci retracement near $73. That level marks the last major support before deeper downside opens up.
The first meaningful resistance sits at the 0.618 Fibonacci level around $120. A move back to that zone would require a gain of more than 55% from current prices.
SOL weekly chart. Source: Tradingview
Weekly volume continues to contract, which often signals accumulation and low volatility. However, the broader structure stays bearish until buyers reclaim higher levels. The recent leverage liquidations across the market underline how fragile sentiment remains.
Solana Price Prediction: $80 Line in the Sand
The daily chart offers the first signs of a possible bottom. SOL broke down from an ascending channel in June and hit its measured target near $63.
Price then bounced firmly off that support and now retests resistance just below $80. The Relative Strength Index has climbed toward 60, which indicates building momentum from buyers.
A daily close above $80 would strengthen the recovery case and open the path toward $100 and eventually $120. Failure to hold $73 would expose the $63 demand zone again.
SOL daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The upcoming Alpenglow consensus upgrade could act as a catalyst if activation nears in the third quarter. Broader market weakness, seen in recent ETF outflows, remains the main risk. July now hinges on whether SOL can convert strong network fundamentals into a decisive break above $80.

Brent crude oil has erased its entire war premium, sliding roughly 40% from its March peak near $120 to trade around $72.25 on Wednesday. The move returns oil to its pre-war support base.
The retreat follows stalled diplomacy between Iran and the United States. Traders have shifted focus away from conflict risk and back toward supply, demand, and the broader economic outlook.
Brent Crude Oil Falls Back Into Its Multi-Year Channel
The weekly chart frames the whole story. Brent crude oil has traded inside a descending parallel channel since late 2023. That structure defined the pre-war regime for more than two years.
The channel’s upper band rejected price four separate times through 2024 and early 2026. Each test capped rallies and sent oil back toward the middle of the range.
Then the conflict changed everything. Price broke out sharply after the Iran-US escalation, with the Doha talks still unresolved. Brent surged into a distribution zone between $104 and $114, peaking near $120.
UKOIL weekly chart. Source: Tradingview
That advance has now fully unwound. The weekly chart shows a 40.02% decline from the peak. Oil has fallen back into the accumulation zone between roughly $60 and $72.
The upper band of the channel now sits directly beneath the price. Old resistance can flip into support, and that band is the first line the bulls must defend.
Daily Triangle Breakdown Pushes RSI to Oversold
The weekly structure hints at support, yet the daily chart complicates that read. Momentum has turned sharply against oil.
Brent crude oil built a symmetrical triangle after the March top. Price coiled between a lower series of highs and a rising series of lows toward an apex near $108.
The pattern resolved lower. Oil broke down from the triangle in late May and fell in a near-vertical drop as war fears faded around Hormuz shipping lanes.
UKOIL daily chart / Source: Tradingview
Price is now back on the pre-war support zone between $68 and $73. That band held as a base during January and February before the conflict began.
The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 30. That marks the first oversold reading since April 2025 and signals deeply negative momentum. However, such stretched readings often precede a pause or bounce.
Oil Price Prediction Hinges on the $68 to $72 Support Zone
The two timeframes converge at a single decision point. The weekly upper band, the daily support base, and a rising trendline off the early-year lows all stack up between $68 and $72.
Brent crude oil sits at the top of that confluence near $72.25. The triangle’s widest span measured about $29, and the breakdown near $100 projected toward roughly $71. That target has now been met, suggesting much of the downside has been spent.
A hold here keeps the pre-war base intact and could open a rebound toward the $80 shelf that broke in June. A daily close back above $80 would ease the bearish pressure.
A loss of $68 would invalidate that thesis. The next support sits near $60 at the accumulation floor, with the lower channel band below it.
Fundamentals could tip the balance either way. Falling US inventories and a supply warning argue for a floor, while a fresh Iranian oil license and cooling war risk keep rallies capped.
Whether oil holds this zone or slides toward $60 now depends on the next Middle East headline, weighed against the forces of supply and demand.

Ethereum Institutional launched Wednesday, the ecosystem’s second nonprofit in nine days, backed by Tom Lee’s BitMine, SharpLink Gaming and co-founder Joe Lubin.
The launches show the backers doubling down while price stays weak. Ether (ETH) trades near $1,600, down about 67% from its 2025 peak.
Ethereum Price Performance. Source: TradingView Two Nonprofits in Nine Days
Ethereum Institutional follows the research nonprofit Ethlabs, which launched on June 22. Its backers cast Ethlabs as readying the network for an institutional supercycle.
1/ Announcing Ethereum InstitutionalAn independent non-profit dedicated to accelerating the institutional adoption of Ethereum, its L2s, applications and overall ecosystem. pic.twitter.com/XUeViH6rrq
— Ethereum Institutional (@ethereuminsti) July 1, 2026
Both share the same anchor funders and the same aim, drawing institutional interest to Ethereum. The launches come as the Foundation keeps narrowing its core role to protocol stewardship.
The funders are heavily exposed to ETH. BitMine, the largest corporate holder, controls about 5.7 million ETH, or roughly 4.7% of supply, per a late-June company disclosure. SharpLink, the second-largest treasury, added 10,000 ETH just before the launch.
BitMine and SharpLink among Top 2 Ethereum Treasuries. Source: Coingecko
ETH traded near $1,610 as of this writing, up almost 5% over 24 hours. However, the largest altcoin on market cap metrics still sits about 67% below its August 2025 record high. That is a steeper drop than Bitcoin (BTC), which trades about 53% below its own peak.
The token has spent 2026 near the low end of its range. The backers are wagering that institutional demand can lift ETH before price follows.
Ethereum Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto Ethereum Institutional’s Neutral Front Door
Ethereum Institutional describes itself as a credible, independent front door for institutions assessing the network, according to its website. Its founding team previously built the Ethereum Foundation’s enterprise function.
David Walsh, Marius Smith and Matthew Dawson lead the organization. Walsh earlier ran the Foundation’s enterprise efforts.
The nonprofit set five priorities from day one. These span institutional engagement, market intelligence, ecosystem marketing, industry research and events. More supporters are expected soon.
“The world’s largest institutions are deciding where tokenization, stablecoins, and onchain markets will settle. We’re ready to make Ethereum the base layer for institutional finance,” read an excerpt in the announcement.
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Standard Chartered Sees a Bigger Opportunity
Geoff Kendrick, global head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, called the two launches important for Ethereum’s commercialization. He said they arrive as TradFi enters the network at scale, filling a longstanding gap in Ethereum’s institutional outreach.
“This commercialization is central to ensuring Ethereum capitalizes on its current lead towards becoming the settlement layer of the global economy,” Kendrick wrote in a client note.
Kendrick sees Ethlabs and Ethereum Institutional as complementary. One readies the protocol, while the other brings institutions through the door.
Tom Lee, who chairs BitMine, welcomed the launch, after floating a long-term ETH target of $250,000, betting tokenization pulls institutions onchain.
Congratulations @ethereuminsti on this announcement– another great team set to do great things for @ethereum https://t.co/q3jJFrXWku
— Thomas (Tom) Lee (not drummer) FundstratDirect.com (@fundstrat) July 1, 2026
The ambition runs ahead of the price. Whether the two nonprofits convert institutional interest into demand will show in the months ahead.

World launched on July 1 as an onchain prediction market on Solana (SOL), live in Phantom Wallet and using Chainlink oracles to automatically settle trades in the CASH stablecoin.
Its debut adds a Solana-native challenger to a sector Polymarket and Kalshi already lead, where volumes have hit records.
millions wondered "what is world xyz?" 🌎world is the @solana prediction marketworld is live in @phantom with @chainlink as oracle infraworld is how the world trades what happens nextworld is just getting started https://t.co/Dkis959FTU pic.twitter.com/CtTg8ZaGWL
— world (@world_xyz) July 1, 2026
How World Works Inside Phantom
World operates as a non-custodial protocol rather than a traditional exchange. It routes orders to liquidity providers on Solana and does not hold user funds or run the markets itself. Traders keep positions in their own wallets as tokens until they choose to cash out.
Settlement runs through Chainlink Data Streams and its runtime environment, which feed prices and resolve outcomes with limited human involvement. Winning positions redeem automatically in CASH, a Solana stablecoin.
At launch, World lists short-duration Bitcoin (BTC) up-or-down contracts and markets on the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The debut lands as Solana runs hot.
Solana’s SOL token rose more than 5% on the day and about 16% over the week, according to BeInCrypto data.
Solana (SOL) Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto
The team plans to add sports, politics, and macro markets through July.
World Replaces Kalshi in the Wallet
The launch is the public reveal of infrastructure that has quietly run for weeks. Phantom offered Kalshi-powered markets through a DFlow integration from December 2025. It then switched to World for all positions opened on or after June 1.
Full story — what World Prediction Markets does, how it replaced DFlow/Kalshi, and what the disclosure actually says: https://t.co/hMC39dsIHj
— Solana 🧭 Compass (@SolanaCompass) June 30, 2026
Under the old setup, traders redeemed winning positions themselves, whereas World settles them automatically once an event ends.
That switch matters because Phantom reaches roughly 20 million users, giving World immediate distribution without a separate app. Kalshi, meanwhile, remains a formidable rival and is reportedly weighing a $40 billion valuation.
Before the reveal, the project ran a stealth campaign built around a glowing globe and the tagline “Trade Everything.” It even told followers there was “no product.”
“Prediction markets are one of the most powerful applications you can build on a high-performance blockchain. World is designed to show what Solana makes possible: real-time markets, onchain settlement, and a user experience that meets people where they are,” Pedro Miranda, Head of Consumer at the Solana Foundation, said in the launch announcement.
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Can World take on Polymarket and Kalshi?
The incumbents carry moats World has not built. Polymarket proved the model in 2024, when more than $3 billion traded on its US presidential market. It has since expanded onto Solana through a February integration with Jupiter, contesting the same turf World now claims.
For the first time, @Polymarket is coming to Solana. On Jupiter. Integrating Polymarket is primed for making Jupiter the most innovative predictions platform on SolanaTrade all the markets you want. On one onchain platform. The best user-experience on Solana 🤝The biggest… pic.twitter.com/lSpxZ93SaK
— Jupiter (@JupiterExchange) February 1, 2026
Their regulatory paths diverge sharply. Kalshi is a US-regulated exchange that beat the CFTC in court in 2024 to list election contracts. Polymarket took the opposite route, paying a $1.4 million CFTC penalty in 2022 that forced it offshore for years.
World sidesteps both, running as a permissionless onchain protocol with no license and no gatekeeper.
That freedom cuts two ways. The non-custodial model removes intermediaries, but it also forgoes the oversight and protections that anchor a regulated venue like Kalshi.
World has not published volume or liquidity figures, so its trading power stays unproven. Prediction markets reward deep books, which produce tighter spreads and steadier pricing. Distribution can pull in users fast, but that kind of depth takes time to build.
Sector momentum still helps, with prediction market open interest hitting a record $1.48 billion in June.
An unaffiliated memecoin using the World name sparked speculation on Pump.fun, though the team confirmed there is no link to it.
Prediction Market Open Interest. Source: X/a16z crypto
World’s case rests on distribution and instant onchain settlement, not proven scale. The World Cup becomes the first real test of whether embedded access inside Phantom turns into lasting liquidity.

Elon Musk dismissed a Wall Street Journal report that SpaceX built a prototype AI device, calling it “utterly false”. SpaceX stock (SPCX) fell about 7% on Wednesday as investors weighed the conflicting accounts.
The report said the company privately showed investors a handset-like device before its public listing. The denial gave traders little clarity on a stock already prone to sharp swings.
SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Performance. Source: Google Finance Musk Rejects the AI Device Report
The Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX showed investors a device slimmer than an iPhone before its June listing. The prototype reportedly ran a proprietary operating system on a Qualcomm (QCOM) Snapdragon chipset.
It also drew on technology from Musk’s xAI unit, now folded into SpaceX. Sources described the project as early-stage, with a design that could still change. Elon Musk has however refuted the claims. The post has since been deleted.
Elon Musk Rejects WSJ Report Claims. Source: Musk on X
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No filing, image, or product demonstration has backed the report, and SpaceX has stayed publicly silent. The denial echoes February, when Musk rejected a Reuters report that SpaceX was building a Starlink phone.
Still, the report fits how SpaceX sells itself. The company spans rockets, satellite internet, and AI. Its broader AI push, though, has favored data centers and satellites over consumer gadgets.
SpaceX Stock Extends Its Post-IPO Slide
SPCX fell to $157.88, down about 7% from Tuesday’s close of $170.86. As of this writing, it was trading for $158.33, with the drop leaving the stock roughly 30% below its June peak of $225.64. It has deepened a retreat that began soon after the stock’s record IPO debut.
SpaceX (SPCX) Stock Performance. Source: TradingView
SpaceX priced that June offering at $135 a share, raising about $75 billion. That gave it a valuation near $2.09 trillion.
Qualcomm shares edged higher as some traders read the report as a new chip partnership. That split reaction captured the market’s uncertainty. SpaceX now trades near a make-or-break support level that analysts have flagged for weeks.
Qualcomm (QCOM) Shares Performance. Source: TradingView
The muted company response leaves investors waiting for clarification. Musk’s denials have not always ended speculation. Continued silence from SpaceX could keep pressure on SPCX in the coming sessions.