Трезвый Инвестор
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Трезвый Инвестор
Криптосообщество «Трезвый инвестор» — расчет вместо эмоций.
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#GRIFFAIN $GRIFFAIN Looking at adding to the spot portfolio. Will be waiting for an impulse of 50% and more. Stop behind the LOW. LONG LONG LONG
#NEWS #UnitedStates Today in the USA — Independence Day! It is better to perceive this day as a calm trading background, and in our case a positive one, and not to bet on sharp impulses.
#BTC Price Analysis# $BTC
The market gave an impulse, and everyone wants clarity.
We are drawing a good pattern, in which a potential bottom is now visible, from which we can push off, as well as define targets.
Everything in order.
The hourly timeframe formed a diverging triangle.
👀 A liquidity block is visible at $58,600. Taking this into account, a large number of traders bought at these values and continue to add to positions from current levels. However, on the 4-hour timeframe a shelf is already visible at $74,200 — a fat cluster with three FVGs, which the market needs to take.
‼️ Based on clearly expressed indicative data, the $58–62K range is currently the maximum psychological zone, where a sideways movement is forming before the breakout.
At the moment the resistance is the $62,400 level, and support has shifted to $56,800.
⚠️ What is important to consider right now: the price may overcome resistance from current levels as well, however it would be desirable to see a complete fill of the pattern with a subsequent buyback and exit above the sloping line.
✔️ Retest of $58,600 with a subsequent update of the LOW, crash, capitulation of the majority of positively minded market participants and complete belief in a move toward $40,000, after which a reversal of 35–40% of pure movement.
Why exactly 35–40%❓ Almost every strong move downward in previous years was accompanied by growth in July, which I expect to see in 2026 as well.
#LONG vs #SHORT
As for August, it is not excluded that it will return the bearish trend and show us the true BOTTOM.
I will stick to this strategy.
The market gave an impulse, and everyone wants clarity.
We are drawing a good pattern, in which a potential bottom is now visible, from which we can push off, as well as define targets.
Everything in order.
The hourly timeframe formed a diverging triangle.
👀 A liquidity block is visible at $58,600. Taking this into account, a large number of traders bought at these values and continue to add to positions from current levels. However, on the 4-hour timeframe a shelf is already visible at $74,200 — a fat cluster with three FVGs, which the market needs to take.
‼️ Based on clearly expressed indicative data, the $58–62K range is currently the maximum psychological zone, where a sideways movement is forming before the breakout.
At the moment the resistance is the $62,400 level, and support has shifted to $56,800.
⚠️ What is important to consider right now: the price may overcome resistance from current levels as well, however it would be desirable to see a complete fill of the pattern with a subsequent buyback and exit above the sloping line.
✔️ Retest of $58,600 with a subsequent update of the LOW, crash, capitulation of the majority of positively minded market participants and complete belief in a move toward $40,000, after which a reversal of 35–40% of pure movement.
Why exactly 35–40%❓ Almost every strong move downward in previous years was accompanied by growth in July, which I expect to see in 2026 as well.
#LONG vs #SHORT
As for August, it is not excluded that it will return the bearish trend and show us the true BOTTOM.
I will stick to this strategy.
#Ethereum $ETH
SHORT holders outweighed the market, ripped the stop and surged above the sloping line, formed a fat IFVG. For now I am watching the market and see how the bulls are dominating!
👀 Waiting for America's open and the formation of a clear structure. July opened with green candles!
Beautiful, but not in our favor. Today we will be working off the knocked out stops.
#LONG vs #SHORT
SHORT holders outweighed the market, ripped the stop and surged above the sloping line, formed a fat IFVG. For now I am watching the market and see how the bulls are dominating!
👀 Waiting for America's open and the formation of a clear structure. July opened with green candles!
Beautiful, but not in our favor. Today we will be working off the knocked out stops.
#LONG vs #SHORT
#TRUMP #UnitedStates
Where could it be worse? It was $77… now it's $1.6...
The question is no longer "how high can it go", but "can it fall even below $1?". 🤡
Reality is harsh.
$1 is no longer just a number. It's like an indicator of scam, hype and expectations in one number.
Is there a BOTTOM? Although once $BTC also traded at these values.
💩 How to bankrupt all investors is shown on the chart.
Where could it be worse? It was $77… now it's $1.6...
The question is no longer "how high can it go", but "can it fall even below $1?". 🤡
Reality is harsh.
$1 is no longer just a number. It's like an indicator of scam, hype and expectations in one number.
Is there a BOTTOM? Although once $BTC also traded at these values.
💩 How to bankrupt all investors is shown on the chart.
#NEWS July 1 greets us with news that may lead to increased volatility. June closed in the red zone, and July is only beginning to reveal its potential. The start of the month may turn out to be unpredictable, but by my expectations, the situation looks much more interesting than it seems right now. ‼️ Be ready for sharp movements and possible manipulations. The market is in a waiting phase, therefore any flushes can be aggressive. In which exact direction the movement will occur we will definitely see very soon, and possibly, we will have a good opportunity to take advantage of it.
#Altcoin Season# $HYPE
For now I see the same structure, the right angle is formed, the scenario remains unchanged.
🍏 If Hyperliquid has not prepared another deceptive maneuver, the potential for a decline remains high. We work on the daily timeframe with a clear stop, which is not unimportant for us, and the target is movement according to the outlined scenario.
Of particular interest is the $54 range. It is in this zone that the further fate of the asset and its movement for the coming months will be decided.
SHORT SHORT SHORT
For now I see the same structure, the right angle is formed, the scenario remains unchanged.
🍏 If Hyperliquid has not prepared another deceptive maneuver, the potential for a decline remains high. We work on the daily timeframe with a clear stop, which is not unimportant for us, and the target is movement according to the outlined scenario.
Of particular interest is the $54 range. It is in this zone that the further fate of the asset and its movement for the coming months will be decided.
SHORT SHORT SHORT
#Altcoin Season# $ETH The structure remains descending and at the current moment I see the following picture. 👀 The price is moving in a mid-term channel and may go below the sloping support line in the area of $1,550. 🪙 The scenario assumes a continuation of the downward movement with the formation of a repeated bottom. The key resistance remains the area of $1,603. A repeated retest of this level showed uncertainty of the further direction, from which I draw a conclusion and will stick to this picture. #LONG vs #SHORT
#BTC Price Analysis# $BTC It is important to hold $58,000, or else update the LOW, but buy back above the level. Watching for the consolidation. 💰 If we look at the GAP located in the range of $53,000-$54,000 on the CME, this is the next strong support. However, holding will form a mid-term box, which will send the asset to cover the formed FVGs up to $64,000. 👀 Right now it is important for a buyer to appear for the further development of the price, since below there is one void, which still remains unexplored. #LONG vs #SHORT We have the month close, I already said that I want to see June red, but July GROWTH, all that's left is to hope for the best, but be ready for the worst.
Michigan Temporarily Bans Kalshi From Offering Sports Contracts A court in Ingham County just put Kalshi's sports contracts on hold in Michigan, at least for now. On June 29, the court issued a temporary restraining order barring Kalshi from offering Michigan residents contracts tied to sports event outcomes. The block runs for 14 days, until July 13. ⠀ The stakes for non-compliance are steep. If Kalshi fails to properly geoblock Michigan users, it faces a fine of $120,000 per day. State authorities argue the platform's sports contracts violate Michigan's betting laws, while Kalshi maintains it falls under federal CFTC jurisdiction instead. ⠀ This is becoming a familiar fight across the US. Prediction markets like Kalshi keep clashing with state gambling regulators over whether sports outcome contracts count as financial derivatives or as straight up betting, and the answer to that question could shape how far these platforms can expand state by state. #Kalshi #UnitedStates
Arthur Hayes Backs New Token Linked to Hyperliquid Ecosystem
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes is backing a new decentralized options exchange built on Hyperliquid. He called Hypercall, created by the Synapse team, a serious challenger to Deribit, the leading venue for crypto options.
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Hayes wants asymmetry, meaning high upside with limited downside. He shared a post from investor Duncan, who argues SYN offers strong risk to reward. FDV sits around $160 million, no VC unlocks are coming, and 88% of supply already trades on Binance and Kraken. The case is that Hypercall adds real utility to SYN through buybacks. Hayes called it compelling but urged followers to do their own research.
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Context matters. Hayes recently exited $HYPE , $WLD , $ZEC , and $NEAR , citing energy prices, AI IPOs, and political risk. In June he sold 6,000 $ETH at a loss near $1,690, days after buying ETH at $1,793. ZachXBT recently accused him of hyping coins before dumping them. Hayes says he just shares his own decisions.
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On-chain data, sourced from #CMCAgentHub by @CoinMarketCap , adds caution. SYN open interest jumped almost 28x in 14 days, funding sits at 3.2% per 4 hours, about 20x above crowded levels, and short liquidations make up nearly 77% of activity, a classic squeeze signature rather than organic demand. The setup is flagged as overextended.
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Fundamentals are thin. Aside from Hayes' post and unconfirmed Hypercall talk, Synapse's official channels have stayed silent for two weeks with zero confirmation.
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This looks like a narrative driven squeeze, not a fundamentals driven rally. Moves like this often give back 40 to 60% of gains as fast as they formed. The real catalyst is whether Synapse confirms Hypercall. Until then, it's speculation.
#SYN $SYN
BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes is backing a new decentralized options exchange built on Hyperliquid. He called Hypercall, created by the Synapse team, a serious challenger to Deribit, the leading venue for crypto options.
⠀
Hayes wants asymmetry, meaning high upside with limited downside. He shared a post from investor Duncan, who argues SYN offers strong risk to reward. FDV sits around $160 million, no VC unlocks are coming, and 88% of supply already trades on Binance and Kraken. The case is that Hypercall adds real utility to SYN through buybacks. Hayes called it compelling but urged followers to do their own research.
⠀
Context matters. Hayes recently exited $HYPE , $WLD , $ZEC , and $NEAR , citing energy prices, AI IPOs, and political risk. In June he sold 6,000 $ETH at a loss near $1,690, days after buying ETH at $1,793. ZachXBT recently accused him of hyping coins before dumping them. Hayes says he just shares his own decisions.
⠀
On-chain data, sourced from #CMCAgentHub by @CoinMarketCap , adds caution. SYN open interest jumped almost 28x in 14 days, funding sits at 3.2% per 4 hours, about 20x above crowded levels, and short liquidations make up nearly 77% of activity, a classic squeeze signature rather than organic demand. The setup is flagged as overextended.
⠀
Fundamentals are thin. Aside from Hayes' post and unconfirmed Hypercall talk, Synapse's official channels have stayed silent for two weeks with zero confirmation.
⠀
This looks like a narrative driven squeeze, not a fundamentals driven rally. Moves like this often give back 40 to 60% of gains as fast as they formed. The real catalyst is whether Synapse confirms Hypercall. Until then, it's speculation.
#SYN $SYN
Dubai Braces for Wave of European Crypto Firms
Europe's crypto compliance deadline is becoming Dubai's business opportunity. CoinDesk reports that Dubai is expecting an inflow of European crypto companies as the MiCA transition period wraps up. Starting July 1, firms without proper authorization will no longer be able to offer regulated services to clients in the EU.
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NeosLegal lawyer Irina Heaver says her firm is now fielding over 120 inquiries a week from companies looking to set up business in the UAE. About half of those requests are coming from Europe, where heavy bureaucracy and steep compliance costs are pushing firms to look elsewhere.
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It's a familiar pattern in crypto. Tighter regulation in one region often just redirects capital and talent to wherever the rules are friendlier, and right now that destination looks like Dubai.
#Dubai
Europe's crypto compliance deadline is becoming Dubai's business opportunity. CoinDesk reports that Dubai is expecting an inflow of European crypto companies as the MiCA transition period wraps up. Starting July 1, firms without proper authorization will no longer be able to offer regulated services to clients in the EU.
⠀
NeosLegal lawyer Irina Heaver says her firm is now fielding over 120 inquiries a week from companies looking to set up business in the UAE. About half of those requests are coming from Europe, where heavy bureaucracy and steep compliance costs are pushing firms to look elsewhere.
⠀
It's a familiar pattern in crypto. Tighter regulation in one region often just redirects capital and talent to wherever the rules are friendlier, and right now that destination looks like Dubai.
#Dubai
Chinese Businessman Sentenced to 30 Years for Crypto Fraud
A scheme worth over $1 billion just landed someone three decades behind bars. On June 29, a Federal Court in New York sentenced Chinese businessman and political exile Guo Wengui to 30 years in prison over a crypto fraud case. The court also ordered him to pay back $889 million.
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According to the US Department of Justice, the scheme touched more than $1 billion and involved the Himalaya Exchange platform. A jury found Guo guilty on nine counts back in July 2024, and now the sentencing closes out one of the more drawn-out crypto fraud cases in recent memory.
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Thirty years is a heavy number even by the standards of crypto fraud sentencing, signaling how seriously courts are starting to treat schemes at this scale.
#news
A scheme worth over $1 billion just landed someone three decades behind bars. On June 29, a Federal Court in New York sentenced Chinese businessman and political exile Guo Wengui to 30 years in prison over a crypto fraud case. The court also ordered him to pay back $889 million.
⠀
According to the US Department of Justice, the scheme touched more than $1 billion and involved the Himalaya Exchange platform. A jury found Guo guilty on nine counts back in July 2024, and now the sentencing closes out one of the more drawn-out crypto fraud cases in recent memory.
⠀
Thirty years is a heavy number even by the standards of crypto fraud sentencing, signaling how seriously courts are starting to treat schemes at this scale.
#news
#VELVET $VELVET I see potential for growth above the current level; right now, SHORT holders are literally clinging to the asset. As long as they remain in the majority, the asset will rise at their expense. ‼️ High-risk asset Prices are fluctuating rapidly but effectively. LONG LONG LONG
SEC Wins Default Judgment Against NanoBit Fraud Scheme A platform that simulated trading and "disappeared" the moment investors tried to withdraw just got hit with a court verdict. The Eastern District of New York issued a default judgment against NanoBit Limited, Radiant Horizons Limited, Sweet Karma Fashion Inc., Zhao Tropical Deli Inc., and individuals Jiajie Liu and Hua Zhao. The SEC reported they were found liable for investment fraud through a fake crypto platform. ⠀ The scheme ran from at least September 2023 to June 2024. Scammers approached victims through WhatsApp groups and posed as finance professionals. They lured people onto NanoBit, a platform that faked trading activity and fabricated profits. The moment users tried to cash out, the site simply vanished. NanoBit also falsely claimed broker registration through an affiliated entity, NanobitUS Securities, and pushed fake ICOs promising high returns. ⠀ The damage hit 18 investors who lost at least $967,835 combined. Roughly $725,335 came in as crypto, funneled through three non-custodial wallets, while another $242,500 moved as fiat. According to the SEC, the funds were ultimately routed from the US to accounts in Hong Kong. ⠀ Financial penalties total over $5.5 million. NanoBit Limited alone owes around $1.8 million, while the other three entities were fined roughly $1.2 million each. All defendants are now permanently barred from issuing, buying, offering, or promoting securities, with Liu and Zhao only allowed to trade through their personal accounts. ⠀ The judgment came by default since none of the defendants showed up to contest it. That says a lot about how confident these operators were they'd never face consequences. #SEC
$400 млн — и ставка не на крипту для криптанов, а на крипту как инфраструктуру для совсем других индустрий. Венчурная фирма Framework Ventures привлекла $400 млн в новый фонд. Деньги пойдут в проекты на пересечении токенизации, стейблкоинов и технологий следующего поколения — то есть фокус смещается с чисто крипто-продуктов в сторону более широкой финансовой инфраструктуры. Сооснователь фирмы Майкл Андерсон в комментарии CoinDesk обозначил главное отличие от прошлого цикла: в 2020–2021 годах криптопродукты делались в основном для крипто-аудитории, а сейчас блокчейн всё больше превращается в финансовый слой для капиталоёмких отраслей — ИИ, робототехники, энергетики. Это смена фокуса видна по самому портфелю: среди примеров новой стратегии — Daylight, Uranium Digital, TVL Capital, Mecka AI и Plasma. Набор имён говорит сам за себя — это не DeFi-протоколы для трейдеров, а проекты, где блокчейн выступает инструментом для физических и капиталоёмких секторов экономики. Логика венчурного капитала здесь довольно показательна: крупный фонд формируется не вокруг очередного нарратива внутри крипторынка, а вокруг идеи, что токенизация и стейблкоины становятся универсальной расчётной и финансовой инфраструктурой за пределами самой индустрии. Если тезис Андерсона верен, следующая волна крипто-роста может прийти не от новых мемкоинов, а от того, насколько глубоко блокчейн встроится в энергетику, робототехнику и ИИ. #Crypto
Loopring объявил о закрытии своей децентрализованной биржи и автоматического маркетмейкера. Причины разработчики назвали без прикрас: проект так и не добился массового распространения, у команды не хватало навыков развития бизнеса, а конкуренция с современными zkEVM-решениями оказалась слишком сильной. Техническая подоплёка тоже понятна: архитектура Loopring устарела на фоне конкурентов, полностью совместимых со смарт-контрактами $ETH . Делистинг токена $LRC с крупных бирж в 2026 году только усилил давление — без листингов и без совместимости проект оказался в тупике с обеих сторон. Важная деталь — команда не бросает пользователей с пустыми кошельками. Средства вернут напрямую на Ethereum-адреса: сначала опубликуют список балансов для проверки (две недели на сверку), затем выплатят всем с балансом выше $10, причём комиссии за газ покроет сам проект. Для крипторынка, где закрытия часто сопровождаются исчезновением команды, это скорее исключение, чем правило. Кейс Loopring — хорошая иллюстрация того, как быстро устаревает технологическое преимущество в DeFi: то, что было прорывом несколько лет назад (zk-rollup решения от одного из пионеров направления), сегодня проигрывает более универсальным и совместимым альтернативам. #Loopring #DeFi
Восемь месяцев молчания — и три дня подряд активных покупок. Sharplink явно что-то решила про эфир. По данным Arkham, компания провела серию внебиржевых сделок: в четверг 5000 $ETH , в пятницу ещё 5000 ETH на $7,9 млн, а в субботу — уже крупный транш в 29 196 ETH на $46,7 млн. Руководство причины не комментирует, но сама динамика — нарастающая, не разовая — говорит о возобновлении системной покупки, а не о тестовой сделке. Контекст здесь действительно интересный: Sharplink докупает эфир на фоне его слабости. За месяц ETH потерял 21,4%, с начала года — почти 50%, торгуется в районе $1581, капитализация просела до $190,6 млрд. То есть покупка пришлась именно на просадку, а не на ралли. Совпадение по времени тоже показательное: Sharplink вместе с Bitmine запустили некоммерческую организацию Ethlabs — проект, нацеленный на масштабирование сети Эфириума. Логика компаний прозрачна: рост стейблкоинов, токенизированных активов и AI-расчётов подталкивает бизнес выбирать Эфириум как открытый блокчейн для расчётов, и Ethlabs должен подготовить сеть к этому корпоративному спросу. Для сравнения масштаба — Bitmine, которая на прошлой неделе докупила 52 203 ETH на $90 млн, доведя резерв до 5 672 956 монет, давно обошла Sharplink как крупнейший держатель альткоина среди публичных компаний. Возвращение Sharplink к покупкам может говорить о том, что эта гонка резервов ещё не закончена. #Ethereum
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