CryptoQuant Quicktake

Liquidity drainage from ETFs isn’t stopping, and for the first time since ETFs have existed, more than 100,000 BTC have left ETF providers’ reserves.
And that’s just for 2026.
If we start from BTC’s all-time high held by these entities (October 2025), we’re at more than 160,000 BTC sold !
In terms of drawdown, this is the largest ETFs have ever experienced. It’s estimated at over $11B in losses, a historic record.
With a realized price hovering around $73,000, BTC holders now mostly find themselves holding BTC at a loss.
The bear market spares no one, not even the ETFs and the biggest players like Blackrock.
Written by Darkfost

Bitcoin's funding rate currently sits at 0.011. It's positive, but the magnitude is low. Looking at the full history puts this reading in context.
Funding rates are periodic payments exchanged between longs and shorts in perpetual futures. A positive rate means longs are paying shorts, reflecting bullish positioning. A negative rate means the opposite, with shorts paying longs. The size of the reading, not just its sign, shows how crowded one side of the market has become.
Past extremes make the pattern clear. In early 2021, funding spiked into the 0.1 to 0.15 range as long positioning reached euphoric levels, and a similar extreme positive reading showed up near the January 2025 all-time high above $109K. On the other end, funding flipped deeply negative during the FTX collapse in November 2022, the yen carry trade unwind in August 2024, and the April 2025 selloff. These negative extremes have historically lined up with short-term bottoms, as panic-driven short positioning got crowded and then unwound.
The current reading sits in neither camp. At 0.011, it's well below the overheated long-side extremes above 0.05 and far from the deeply negative panic readings seen at past lows. Funding turned negative briefly around February, reflecting short-side pressure during that selloff, but that has since cleared and funding has drifted back to a mild positive level.
This matters because it lowers the odds of a one-sided liquidation cascade in either direction. A neutral reading doesn't signal direction on its own, though. If funding starts building again, in either direction, that buildup is worth watching as an early clue for the next volatility move.
The takeaway: funding is positive but far from overheated, sitting in a neutral zone that suggests leveraged positioning has cooled off rather than concentrated on one side.
This reflects my own views. Not financial advice.
Written by Rich_dady

Historically, bull markets have begun once BTC holdings of U.S.-based cryptocurrency custodians (exchanges, digital asset managers, digital asset banks) began exhibiting relative strength against BTC holdings of entities located outside the U.S.
At present, U.S. Bitcoin holdings have not yet shown this turn higher.
This suggests the current period of range bound consolidation may persist somewhat longer before the next bull market materializes.
Written by crypto sunmoon

Looking back, every recurring bear market has brought a bleak period when Bitcoin fell below its realized price, and that has been the best Bitcoin investment opportunity.
The realized price currently stands at around $53K.
If that moment comes again, where price falls below the realized price, invest for the new cycle.
Written by crypto sunmoon

Funding rates for XRP perpetual contracts on Binance indicate increasing selling pressure in the derivatives market, coinciding with the cryptocurrency trading near $1.05. According to the latest data, the funding rate has fallen to approximately -0.0139, its lowest level in more than three months, reflecting a clear shift in trader sentiment toward short positions.
The data shows that funding rates have fluctuated between positive and negative values over the past few months, registering positive readings at various times that coincided with rising XRP prices and increased demand for long positions. However, this balance gradually shifted as bullish momentum weakened, with negative readings becoming increasingly dominant in recent weeks and ultimately reaching their lowest level in more than three months.
Negative funding rates indicate that demand for short positions has surpassed demand for long positions, reflecting traders' growing expectations of continued downward pressure on the price in the short term. Reaching these levels also suggests heightened caution among participants in the perpetual futures market, with a clear preference for adopting defensive strategies rather than opening new long positions.
While persistently negative funding rates reflect weak market sentiment, reaching extremely low levels can sometimes signal that the market is becoming overcrowded with short positions. If spot demand improves or positive catalysts emerge, some traders may close their short positions, potentially triggering a price rebound known as a short squeeze.
Written by Arab Chain

Since the break below $70K, exchange inflows have risen sharply, with the majority of this volume consisting of coins held for roughly six to twelve months, coins most likely accumulated near the cycle highs. This pattern is consistent with capitulation among cycle-top buyers, as holders appear to be cutting losses rather than continuing to hold through the drawdown.
For some, this will be a painful stretch. That said, capitulation events of this kind among cycle-top investors have historically coincided with long-term bottom formation, a pattern observed in both the 2018 and 2022 cycles
Written by crypto sunmoon

Data shows that the number of ERC20 stablecoin deposit transactions into Binance has started to increase again recently, currently around 27K transactions.
For $BTC, this is a signal worth watching because stablecoin deposits often reflect capital being moved onto exchanges, possibly to prepare for trading or wait for buying opportunities.
However, the current increase is still not truly strong compared to previous periods of explosive inflows. This suggests that liquidity is returning, but market sentiment remains cautious.
In other words, capital is flowing into Binance, but not clearly enough to confirm that strong spot buying pressure has returned.
For $BTC, if deposits continue to rise while price holds support, the market may gradually improve. But if deposit flows remain weak, a strong recovery will need further confirmation from volume and real buying pressure.
Written by Rei Researcher

Bitcoin has been in a sideways phase for nearly five months now, a dynamic that keeps investors on edge with every price swing, especially as the symbolic $60 000 threshold approaches.
Last week, BTC came back to retest this $60k zone, and investor reaction was immediate. Over that single week, we observe around $1.7B in stablecoin outflows from Binance, a platform that alone concentrates almost 70% of stablecoins held on exchanges.
This liquidity flight illustrates the nervousness of part of the market, with some investors choosing to exit the market entirely by withdrawing their stablecoins from the exchange.
Two elements, however, invite us to put the structural significance of this move into perspective, and suggest a more operational explanation :
— Despite Binance’s renewed assurances regarding its MiCA license, some European users find themselves forced to withdraw their funds from the platform while the situation gets resolved.
— This chart only accounts for ERC-20 stablecoins, the chain predominantly used for stablecoin flows, so it’s possible that part of these outflows is also due to rotation between chains.
While these strong outflows do describe investors continuing to protect their capital, these two factors nuance the reading of these stablecoin outflows.
Written by Darkfost

Bitcoin open interest has fallen from a July 2025 peak near $45B to roughly $20.4B now, nearly cut in half. This isn't just price weakness showing up on a chart. It reflects leverage actually being removed from the system.
Open interest measures the total notional value of futures positions still outstanding. A falling OI means positions are being closed, either through liquidation or voluntary unwinding. That makes a sharp OI decline a sign of cooling excess and a painful deleveraging process at the same time.
This stretch included several major liquidation events. On October 10, the market saw its largest single-day liquidation on record, and price dropped from an all-time high near $122,574 to roughly $105,000. By February 5, leverage had unwound more than 20% in just days, and price fell to around $61,000. Forced selling continued into June with another round of liquidations pulling open interest lower still.
Viewed through a deleveraging lens, the market has now shed more than 45% of peak leverage, a magnitude similar to the price decline over the same period. Leverage and price have been coming down at a comparable pace. That symmetry points toward an orderly deleveraging process rather than a panic-driven crash where price collapses faster than positions get unwound.
The bear case still applies. A drop in open interest doesn't automatically mark a bottom. In past cycles, OI has fallen and then price chopped sideways or kept sliding before any real reversal showed up. Current open interest at $20.4B is still well above the roughly $10B lows seen in 2023, leaving room for further deleveraging.
The takeaway: this OI decline signals that excess leverage is genuinely being worked off, but that alone doesn't confirm a bottom. With leverage and price falling at a similar pace, this looks more like an orderly unwind than a panic event.
This reflects my own views. Not
Written by Rich_dady

The U.S. to The Rest Reserve Ratio is flashing a familiar warning sign. After peaking near 1.79 in July 2025, this crucial metric, which tracks the relative share of Bitcoin held by U.S. institutions versus the rest of the world has collapsed to 1.59.
Historically, when American demand dries up and the ratio drops, price weakness follows. We saw this leading indicator map out previous macro shifts, and it is happening again: the ratio broke down before Bitcoin even rolled over from its $125K peak.
While a falling ratio doesn't guarantee an immediate freefall but as seen during the 2022 floor-seeking phase, this chart heavily tilts the odds in favor of the bears. U.S. capital flows have fundamentally anchored this cycle’s aggressive rallies. With American entities aggressively reducing their relative exposure faster than global counterparts, the market is losing its primary engine.
Until this institutional supply drain finds a definitive floor, expect heavy resistance overhead and rising bearish momentum in the weeks ahead. Keep a close eye on the 1.50 level becasue more decline would mean more dumping in ETH by US.
Written by TopNotchYJ

Data from the Open Interest Turnover Ratio for XRP on Binance shows that the derivatives market is currently experiencing relative stability, with a noticeable decline in open interest compared to the peak reached in the second half of 2025. According to the latest data, open interest stands at approximately 375.56 million XRP, while the Open Interest Turnover Ratio remains stable at around 0.71.
The data indicates that open interest previously exceeded 1.3 billion XRP before entering a gradual downward trend and stabilizing near 400 million XRP in recent months. Meanwhile, the Open Interest Turnover Ratio experienced several temporary spikes above 4, coinciding with periods of heightened volatility and increased trading activity. However, the indicator has since returned to more normal levels.
The stability of the Open Interest Turnover Ratio near 0.71, coupled with lower open interest, suggests that traders have become more cautious about opening new positions, while the pace of short-term speculation has slowed compared to previous periods. This also reflects a decline in the turnover of derivatives positions, which could help reduce market volatility if these conditions persist.
The current reading points to a calmer and more stable derivatives market than in recent months. However, any sudden increase in the Open Interest Turnover Ratio, particularly if accompanied by rising open interest, could serve as an early signal of renewed speculative activity and increased volatility in XRP's price in the coming period.
Written by Arab Chain

Ethereum derivatives positioning is showing a broad reset across two major exchanges, with open interest falling toward historically important levels even as ETH remains near the $1,600 area.
On June 30, ETH open interest on Binance dropped to $1.95 billion, its lowest level since February, when the exchange recorded roughly $1.91 billion.
At the same time, Gate.io open interest fell to a new chart low of $1.84 billion.
The Gate.io reading is particularly notable because it sits below the previous low of $2.67 billion recorded on April 11, 2025, when ETH traded near $1,570.
That means Gate.io’s current ETH open interest is around $830 million lower, or roughly 31% below, the leverage level seen during that earlier market-bottom period.
The simultaneous decline across Binance and Gate.io suggests the move is not isolated to one exchange.
Combined ETH open interest on the two platforms has fallen to about $3.79 billion, highlighting a broader reduction in leveraged exposure among derivatives traders.
The comparison with April 2025 does not guarantee that ETH will repeat the same price path. However, it shows that speculative positioning is now even lighter than it was when ETH previously traded near a major low before later moving toward new highs.
In other words, ETH is revisiting a similar price zone with substantially less leverage sitting on Gate.io and Binance.
That can reflect continued caution and weak risk appetite in the short term, but it also leaves the market less crowded with leveraged positions if fresh spot demand begins to return.
Written by Amr Taha

Altcoins are arguably the segment that has suffered most throughout this bear market. Every attempt at a momentum recovery has failed outright, and the Total 3, which tracks altcoin market capitalization excluding ETH, continues to slide, with a weekly close below the 200 DMA now confirmed.
This chart covers every altcoin available for spot trading on Binance, the exchange with the highest trading volumes globally.
As of today, approximately 84% of altcoins listed on Binance are in a state of total underperformance, trading below the key technical threshold of the 200-day moving average.
This has now been the case for nearly eight months.
This chart also shows that altcoins have remained highly correlated with Bitcoin's price action throughout this cycle.
A prolonged period of stagnation across the majority of altcoins, one that is pushing investors to their limits. That said, this marks the second longest underperformance streak since 2020. The only comparable episode occurred during the last bear market, where this dynamic lasted approximately ten months.
While this confirms the prevailing bearish trend, such periods have historically also presented medium-term opportunities, though today, identifying them demands significantly more rigorous asset selection than in previous cycles.
Written by Darkfost

Tether's 60-day market cap change has dropped to -$3.55B, sitting near the floor of its range. This is a mean-reverting series. It stretches, exhausts, and pulls back toward its average. The deeper it runs below the mean, the more loaded the reversion becomes.
The metric measures USDT supply created or destroyed over a rolling 60-day window. Below zero means redemptions are outpacing issuance, the dry powder behind most of the buying in this market is contracting instead of building.
So are we at a liquidity inflection point? We could be, if we get good momentum from here. But "could be" and "is" are very different words in this spot. Stretched below zero is where reversions load, it's also where things can sit longer than anyone expects before they turn.
What confirms the turn is the cross. Mean reversion doesn't ask whether we go up, it stretches until it exhausts and then pulls back to the mean. The reading is at -$3.55B while the 30-day average is still sitting positive near +$0.58B and falling. The metric has to climb back through that average for contraction to flip to expansion. No crossover yet.
It's not confirmed, but it's likely we see some momentum pop in the coming weeks if stablecoins start coming back to the market. Below zero loads the setup. The crossover is what fires it.
Written by RugaResearch

Observation
Synthetix (SNX) recently experienced a massive structural anomaly on centralized exchanges. On June 25, Binance recorded a staggering net inflow of over +4.15 million SNX, pushing exchange reserves from 32.9M to 37.0M in a single day. This event single-handedly drove the 7-day average netflow up by 3,031% compared to its quarterly baseline.
Context
This extreme supply injection aligns perfectly with recent governance actions—specifically the decommissioning of the depegged sUSD and the subsequent compensation of users with SNX tokens. The on-chain data visualizes the immediate aftermath: users receiving their compensation and transferring it to Binance, creating heavy localized sell pressure that briefly pushed the price down to $0.20.
Comparison
Historically, a sudden 4-million-token exchange inflow creates a prolonged bearish overhang. However, SNX displayed surprising resilience. By June 27, the market actively absorbed this liquidity; withdrawal transactions spiked, over 1.9M SNX flowed back out of Binance, and the price sharply rebounded by roughly 20% (back above $0.24).
Takeaway
The rapid absorption of this governance-driven supply shock suggests that while short-term participants sold their compensation, longer-term market actors stepped in to accumulate. With the 2026 roadmap pivoting toward real-yield (buybacks via fee revenue), this successful digestion of sell pressure may indicate that the local bottom has been structurally established.
Written by CryptoOnchain

With Bitcoin quoted at $60,133.66 (+1.27% in 24h and -6.47% in 7d), what stands out in the current scenario is, undoubtedly, the MVRV-STH registered at 0.816. This indicator acts as the definitive radar for market panic. By hitting this value, it exposes that short-term holders (Short-Term Holders) are accumulating unrealized losses of approximately 19%. In on-chain dynamics, dives below 0.85 are historical zones of brutal capitulation, marking the macro bottoms where retail reaches maximum psychological exhaustion and whales begin their long-term accumulations.
CAPITULATION
To validate this thesis, the first pillar of support is the SOPR-STH at 0.99. If the MVRV reveals the latent pain, the SOPR confirms the execution of that pain. A value below 1.0 proves that retail has thrown in the towel and is effectively selling its coins at a loss, transferring cheap liquidity directly to the over-the-counter (OTC) market.
LEVERAGE
To close the triad and shield the analysis, derivatives show a change in dynamics with the recent appreciation of Open Interest (OI), which registered a nominal injection of US$ 169.35 million (+0.83%) in the last 24 hours. This addition of contracts indicates the direct entry of new leveraged fuel onto the board. Far from being an organic rise, the increase in OI creates the critical mass necessary for a violent movement, where the liquidation of captured players (long or short) will serve as the driving force for price resolution.
CONCLUSION
With retail capitulation initiated at the bottom and the derivatives market setting up a new liquidity trap, the environment draws the perfect technical structure for a solid and directional Swing Trade movement as soon as institutional flow gives the green light.
Written by GugaOnChain

CryptoQuant data shows a significant increase in large whale spot orders, indicating that big players are actively accumulating at current levels.
From a technical perspective, the asset is trading near the bottom of its long-term monthly channel, a zone that has historically offered strong risk-to-reward opportunities.
📈 Key Takeaway:
Whales are accumulating on spot.
Price is at a major long-term support zone.
This could be an attractive area for long-term investors to start building positions.
Always manage your risk and do your own research before investing.
Written by Abdullah Zia

1) CryptoQuant: When LTH-SOPR approaches or drops below 1, long-term holders are moving coins at or near a loss - a historically rare condition that has marked generational buying opportunities.
2) The last time LTH-SOPR opened and closed below 1 on the monthly timeframe for more than three months was in October 2022. BTC: 20K.
3) What is shown are Japanese candlesticks using only the open and close, with the wicks (high and low) removed to filter out noise.
Written by Facundo Fama

Bitcoin exchange inflows have started to increase and are currently outpacing outflows, indicating that market activity is picking up and fresh capital is entering the crypto market.
This rise in inflows suggests growing participation from investors, while whales continue to accumulate near key long-term support levels.
📊 What This Means:
• Bitcoin exchange inflows are increasing.
• Market participation is strengthening.
• Fresh money is entering the crypto market.
• Current levels could offer an attractive opportunity for long-term accumulation.
As always, use proper risk management and do your own research before investing.
Written by Abdullah Zia

On-chain data shows that Ethereum's spot trading volume is rising relative to leveraged (derivatives) volume, a healthy sign that buying is being driven by actual spot demand rather than excessive leverage.
This often indicates that whales and long-term investors are accumulating ETH instead of chasing short-term speculative moves.
📊 Key Takeaways:
• Spot volume is increasing relative to leveraged volume.
• Stronger spot demand suggests healthier market conditions.
• Whale accumulation appears to be increasing.
• This could support a stronger long-term bullish trend for Ethereum.
⚠️ Always manage your risk and do your own research before investing.
Written by Abdullah Zia