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Stock-to-Flow in history of #bitcoin was more undervalued at other times than in the current bear market, even though it reached -2.0 range again

Historically, these deviations in bull/bear market from the current price and fair price of S2F model always occurred and tend to repeat because the market is dynamic.

This indicator quantifies how much price #BTC is deviating from the model on a logarithmic scale, normalized against annual history using a 365-day rolling Z-score — a good option for capturing extreme peaks

#Onchain #stocktoflow #S2FModel $BTC

IBCI Daily remains at 4.76 points 🟢

#bitcoin price ~$60k 🔺

#BTC #Onchain #CYCLE $BTC

#bitcoin hit a new low once again and Price Z-Score MA200d continues to show an active bullish divergence

#BTC #technicalanalyst #BitcoinSlidesTo$59250 $BTC

Fibonacci Retracement Cycle Zone #bitcoin at 100%

Following the pattern #BTC cycles, this indicator calculates percentage price retracement from most recent ATH toward the previous cycle low, since lows tend to form near previous ATH.

Historically, values above 78 have marked Bitcoin bottoming zones.

The indicator reached 100% on three other occasions in history: 2012, 2018, 2022 — and now.

#Onchain #CYCLE #Fibonacci $BTC

STH Realized Price #bitcoin is currently in ~$73k range

Historically #BTC bottoms have been formed when STH Realized Price Deviation reaches -40% region

As the price moves further away from the STH RP, it forces this category of investors to capitulate — if it hasn't already done so

#Onchain #sth #CYCLE $BTC

IBCI Daily remains at 4.76 points 🟢

#bitcoin price ~$58k 🔻

#BTC #Onchain #CYCLE $BTC

LTH Realized Cap Dominance #bitcoin is nearing bottom🟢 range around 70%

Is a test of conviction for long-term holders coming?

#BTC #Onchain #CYCLE $BTC

STH Realized Cap Dominance #bitcoin is approaching 20% — a historical bottoming region

Speculative capital evaporated from the market🩸

We've entered a phase of dormancy and quiet accumulation — only the conviction holders remain 💪

#BTC #Onchain #sth #accumulating $BTC

MVRV-NUPL Composite Score #bitcoin hits 0.00

This happened only 1x in history during the 2015 bear market ⚠️

During all other bear cycles, this indicator got very close to its lowest point and #BTC formed floor in this zone.

#Onchain #CYCLE #MVRV $BTC

Aggregate #bitcoin ETF Spot total $16.15 billion in unrealized losses

This is the first capitulation cycle in history of ETFs Spot

The aggregate cost basis of ETFs Spot #BTC is in range ~$73k

#ETFvsBTC #Onchain $BTC

IBCI Weekly remains at 4.76 points 🟢

The indicator is at this same level for at least 6 consecutive weeks.

The last pending on-chain cycle signal is NUPL component to fall below 0 indicating a capitulation phase, based on this specific data.

#bitcoin price ~$60k 🔻🔺

#BTC #Onchain #CYCLE $BTC

#bitcoin $54k price range concentrates large clusters of long liquidation orders

It is an extremely important region with the realized LTH price situated in this range, in addition if #BTC reaches this price, the Strategy position will be at -30% unP/L increasing FUD around Saylor's strategy and attracting selling volume to market.

Keeping an eye on $58k 👀 — the last key level in current subcycle.
If broken, the price BTC will likely move towards the long-awaited ~$54k

#Liquidations #Saylor #futuresignal $BTC

Saylor announced plans of selling up to $1.25b in #BTC to build a USD reserve to cover dividends

If Strategy were to sell some #bitcoin to capitalize its USD reserve, it would be realizing loss by capitulating.

Currently Strategy BTC position has an unrealized loss of -$13.26 billion 🔴

The magnitude Strategy unrealized loss was already much greater during the previous bear market in 2022 and yet the company survived with its #Bitcoin treasury strategy.

However, the company’s BTC position during that period was 3x smaller than its current position.

In addition, during that period, the company did not sell in loss to cover its obligations.

This raises a question in the market:
Is the #Saylor strategy profitable? 🤔

Buy BTC at any cost
Don’t sell Bitcoin while it’s in the green
Sell BTC at a loss 🩸 to build up USD reserves

#MSTR #losses $BTC

ADCI Percent Change 30d #bitcoin hits a new low of -29.23%

Historically, during last three #BTC bear markets the indicator signaled bottom forming within yellow range (20%–35%)

#Onchain #CYCLE #indicador $BTC

STH Capitulation Composite Z #bitcoin fell below the Extreme Capitulation region at least 2x in the current bear market

This indicator combines the SOPR STH weighted by the fraction of the normalized loss supply with a 365-day Z-score

When short-term holders are selling at loss and the supply in loss zone is widespread, the composite indicator reaches -2.00 range, signaling capitulation of this category investors and indicating a high probability of bottom forming #BTC

#Onchain #losses #CYCLE $BTC

#bitcoin Supply in Loss MA7d hits again above 50

#BTC #losses #Onchain #CYCLE $BTC

IBCI Daily remains at 4.76 points 🟢

#bitcoin price ~$60k🔻

#BTC #Onchain $BTC

Strategy has not yet suffered as much as it did during #bitcoin 2022 bear market, for a moment the company's position was around -50%

The position during that period was around 3x smaller than the current position #BTC

The most important question is:
This time Saylor able to withstand that much pain?

#Onchain #Saylor #MicroStrategy $BTC

Dormancy-NUPL Composite #bitcoin approaches bottom zone

This indicator measures profit quality adjusted for the age of coins

Positive values 🔴 above 2.00 = Speculative profit - STH euphoria
Negative values 🟢 below -2.00 = Capitulation - signs of a market bottom

#BTC #CYCLE #NUPL $BTC

IBCI Daily remains at 4.76 points 🟢

#bitcoin price ~$60k 🔺

#BTC #Onchain #CYCLE $BTC