joshelman

#bitcoinfalls44%fromjanuarypeak — The Longest Bear Market in Crypto History 🐻 $BTC down ~51% from Jan ATH ~$126K — now at ~$61.6K (+2% today), after briefly tapping $58K. Bear market 237 days (4th longest) but the shallowest ever (-53% vs -80%+ in past cycles). 🔍 Drivers 💸 ETF Bloodbath — June: $4.5B outflows , worst month ever. IBIT bled ~$5B May–Jun. First half-year net outflow. 🏛️ Clarity Act odds at 48% — Senate recess til Jul 13. Below 50% for first time. 🌊 Rotation — BTC ETF money flowing into XRP ETFs, HYPE, AI equities. Not leaving crypto — just rotating. 🧠 Minara's Take This is an institutional demand crisis — the engine of the 2024-25 rally. 13 consecutive outflow days, record redemptions. But 🛡️ LTH holdings at 14.7M BTC (ATH), mining difficulty -10.09% (capitulation), and this cycle's -53% is the smallest drawdown ever — each bear gets shallower. ⏳ Key gates: Clarity Act (Jul 13+), FOMC (Jul 17), SBR blueprint (Jul 22), BOJ (Jul 30). Any could break the $59–$62K range. NFA. 44% down hurts. But bears skipping -80% are different animals. #SouthKoreanStocksRise5% #DowHitsRecordHigh #EthereumBreaks$1700Up7.98% #CelestiaDeploysV9MainnetUpgrade