The recent completion of the 4-year Bitcoin halving cycle coincides with a projected economic rebound in 2026, as illustrated by the ISM PMI chart. This synchronicity highlights a compelling pattern between crypto market cycles and broader business cycles.
📉 Understanding the Graph
The ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) tracks economic activity from 2006 to 2028. Periods of contraction are shaded in red, while green arrows mark recoveries in 2013, 2017, 2021—and now a forecasted upswing in 2026. Each recovery aligns closely with Bitcoin’s halving events, which occur roughly every four years and historically trigger bullish momentum in crypto markets.
🔁 The Halving-Economy Connection
Bitcoin halving reduces mining rewards, tightening supply. This often sparks a price rally within 12–18 months. Interestingly, these rallies tend to mirror broader economic recoveries:
- 2013: Post-2008 crisis recovery + BTC boom
- 2017: Mid-cycle expansion + crypto bull run
- 2021: Post-COVID rebound + record crypto highs
- 2026 (projected): Halving completed in 2024 → macro recovery + crypto resurgence?
📊 Cycle Insight for Traders & Investors
This 4-year rhythm offers strategic timing cues:
| Year | Halving Impact | Economic Phase | Crypto Sentiment |
|------|----------------|----------------|------------------|
| 2013 | Supply shock | Recovery | Bullish |
| 2017 | Supply shock | Expansion | Bullish |
| 2021 | Supply shock | Post-COVID rebound | Bullish |
| 2025–26 | Supply shock (2024 halving) | Projected recovery | Accumulation phase |
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