cryptoanalysis

$BTC has broken below the key trendline and continues to hold in a bearish structure. On the weekly timeframe, the price action is showing a potential Head & Shoulders formation, and what makes this pattern even more significant is the strong bearish divergence appearing on the head of the structure.
This combination of trendline break + bearish market structure + divergence strengthens the probability of a larger downside move.
However, patience is key.

Before taking any short position, I will wait for:
Completion of the right shoulder
A clear break below the neckline
A clean retest of the neckline to confirm bearish continuation

Only then will I look for a short entry with strict risk management and clear invalidation levels.
If this setup plays out, $BTC could deliver a high-probability move on the weekly chart. Watching this closely.

If you find this analysis helpful, hit LIKE and drop your thoughts in the comments. Follow for more advanced BTC setups, market structure breakdowns, and confluence-based trading ideas!

#BTC #Bitcoin #Crypto #CryptoAnalysis #HeadAndShoulders

✅ Trade here on $BTC

Ethereum is approaching a crucial inflection point on the daily chart, with fading bullish momentum, tightening liquidity, and a dense ceiling of resistance levels shaping the next major move. After failing to hold above $3,300, ETH has slipped back toward the low $3,100s, where buyers are attempting to stabilize the market despite softening trend signals and increasingly aggressive ask-side pressure.
The short-term recovery that pushed ETH toward last week’s highs has begun to lose steam. The 9-day EMA — previously rising — is now flattening, revealing a slowdown in bullish momentum, while the 20-day EMA sits only marginally above it, showing that Ethereum remains stuck in a mid-trend transition rather than committing to a decisive breakout. MACD momentum continues to improve but at a slower pace, suggesting that bearish pressure has eased but has not flipped into strong upward control. The RSI’s slight retreat reinforces the sense of cooling momentum after a multi-day rebound.
Resistance remains the defining obstacle. A thick cluster between $3,300, $3,338, and $3,371 has repeatedly rejected attempts to break higher. The failed push at $3,324 highlights trader caution near this zone. Only a clean daily close above $3,371 would confirm a bullish structural shift and open the path toward the mid-$3,400s.

On the downside, ETH is testing a support band around $3,137, $3,077, and $3,069. This zone has historically acted as a stabilizing region where buyers re-enter to absorb selling pressure. A break below the lowest layer of support would signal a deeper pullback toward the low $3,000s and hand firmer control to the bears.
Order-book data shows why ETH is stuck in a tightening price box. Thick bid walls at $3,189–$3,188 signal that bulls are clustering liquidity to defend the structure, while overlapping ask walls at $3,208, $3,201, and $3,195 are repeatedly capping attempts to push higher. Clearing these ask layers could re-activate momentum traders and provide the thrust needed for another challenge of the $3,300 barrier.
Long-side traders are watching for a sustained close above $3,200 and a breakout through the $3,300–$3,338 range as confirmation of renewed bullish strength. Short-side traders remain focused on whether the $3,137 band can hold — a breakdown here, especially with collapsing bid-wall liquidity, would open the door to a more pronounced bearish continuation.
With both liquidity and momentum compressing, Ethereum is entering a decisive window where the market must choose a direction. A breakout could reignite bullish sentiment, while a breakdown risks dragging ETH back toward its deeper structural support levels. Traders across the market are bracing for volatility as ETH approaches this critical crossroads.
#Ethereum #ETH #CryptoAnalysis $ETH

Hey everyone, I wanted to share some crucial insights I've been observing in Bitcoin's price action lately. What's happening right now could be one of the most important turning points we've seen in years, and I think it's worth discussing openly.

Understanding Bitcoin's Monthly Picture: The Three Pillars of an Uptrend
Let me break down what I look for when analyzing Bitcoin's long-term health. Think of it like checking the vital signs of the market—there are three key indicators that tell us whether we're truly in a bull market or not.

The Three Essential Conditions:
First, the MACD indicator needs to show a golden cross—that's when the momentum shifts positively. Second, Bitcoin's monthly price needs to stay above both its 20-period exponential moving average and its 20-period simple moving average. Third, these two moving averages themselves need to maintain their own golden cross, with the exponential average staying above the simple one.
When all three conditions align, history shows us that bull markets thrive. Looking back at previous cycles, every time these three factors came together (marked by those green circles on the chart), Bitcoin powered through sustained rallies.

Lessons From 2018 and 2022: A Pattern We Can't Ignore
Here's where things get concerning, and I'm not trying to spread fear—just sharing what the data actually shows us.
In both 2018 and 2022, we saw the same sequence of events unfold. The first condition broke initially, then within two to three months, the other two conditions followed. After that? The market entered extended downtrends and long accumulation phases. These weren't just minor corrections—they were full market cycle transitions.

Where We Stand Today: Warning Signs Flashing
This is the part that made me want to write this analysis. Right now, we've already lost the first condition. The MACD golden cross has broken. Even more concerning, the other two conditions are showing serious weakness and could break at any moment.
The big question everyone should be asking: Will conditions two and three break again, just like they did in previous cycles? If they do, we might be looking at the beginning of a bear market, not just a temporary pullback.

The Weekly Chart Tells a Sobering Story
Zooming into the weekly timeframe, the picture becomes even clearer—and honestly, it's not what bulls want to see.
Momentum Has Left the Building
The RSI (Relative Strength Index) at the 44 level has been our friend since September 2023. It acted like a floor that supported every healthy pullback during the uptrend. But in November 2025, we broke below that 44 level decisively. When momentum support like this breaks, it's usually not a false alarm.
Trendlines Are Broken
Both the ascending trendlines that had been guiding Bitcoin higher have now been violated. We're currently seeing a bounce attempt at one of these broken trendlines, which is actually normal price behavior (we call this a "retest"). But here's the reality: there are no more ascending trendlines below current levels to catch the fall.
Unless Bitcoin can reclaim these broken trendlines convincingly, the path of least resistance is down. That's not pessimism—it's just reading what the chart is telling us.

Support Levels to Watch: Where Could Bitcoin Find Footing?
If this downtrend continues, here are the zones where I'd expect Bitcoin to find potential support:
- $78,000 - First potential bounce zone
- $69,000 to $71,500 - Stronger support cluster
- $58,700 to $60,200 - High-probability major support
- $47,000 to $52,000 - Deep value zone (unlikely but possible)
Being realistic, if both the weekly and monthly charts confirm downtrends, a move toward the $58,700–$60,200 range makes the most sense from a technical perspective. Would we go as low as $47,000–$52,000? Probably not, but if we did, I'd personally consider that a once-in-a-cycle buying opportunity.

The Bullish Scenario: What Could Change Everything
Now, I'm not here to say all hope is lost. Technical analysis shows us possibilities, not certainties.
If Bitcoin can close a weekly candle above the $105,000–$107,000 zone, everything changes. That would reclaim the area where momentum was lost in November, and we'd need to completely reassess the bearish setup. The weekly uptrend could resume, and we'd be back in business.

My Personal Take: Stay Informed, Not Emotional
Look, I've been through multiple Bitcoin cycles, and the hardest lesson I've learned is this: the market doesn't care about our feelings or our bags. It moves according to its own logic.
Right now, the technical structure is clearly deteriorating. That doesn't mean Bitcoin is going to zero, and it doesn't mean crypto is dead. It means we're potentially transitioning between market phases, and being aware of that can help you make better decisions.
Whether you're a long-term holder, a trader, or just someone interested in Bitcoin, understanding these technical realities helps you navigate what's coming with clearer eyes.

What Should You Do?
I'm not giving financial advice here—everyone's situation is different. But personally, I'm watching those support levels closely, keeping an eye on whether the monthly conditions break completely, and staying ready to adjust my strategy based on what the market shows me, not what I want it to show me.
The next few weeks and months will be crucial. Will Bitcoin bounce from current levels and invalidate the bearish setup? Or will we see those monthly conditions break completely and enter a prolonged correction phase?
Either way, staying informed and objective is our best strategy.
What are you seeing in the charts? How are you positioning yourself right now? Let's discuss in the comments—I'm genuinely curious about different perspectives.
#Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoAnalysis
Remember: This is technical analysis and educational content, not financial advice. Always do your own research and never invest more than you can afford to lose.