TradingShot

A month ago (November 13, see chart below), we gave a strong Sell Signal on Hyperliquid (HYPEUSD) after the Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern turned into an obvious Channel Down, which easily hit our $30.00 Target:

Now we see some short-term relief before the next, larger drop as not only did the price make contact with the bottom (Lower Low trend-line) of the Channel Down, but also the 1D RSI is displaying the same kind of bottoming sequence it did on October 17.
Even though the resulting rebound/ Bullish Leg rose by +50.50%, even breaking above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level, this time the move might be limited by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) posing as a Resistance, even though the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) is the standard long-term one during Bear Cycles.
In any event, our 'modest' short-term Target for this bounce is $33.00.
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#Hyperliquid $HYPE #hypeusdt #signals #hype #hypeusd

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been falling non-stop since its October All Time High and all the signs continue to be there that we have already entered the new Bear Cycle.
We've been sharing extensive analyses with you since September on the markers of the Bear Cycle and the latest indicator that adds to the data set is the STOCH on the 3W time-frame.
As you can see, it has entered a level where all previous three Bear Cycles completed roughly their 1st Phase and rebounded on a dead-cat-bounce. On average it i roughly after every three 3W candles that this happens, this time it was after two, the previous two Bear Cycles after three and the one before (longest) after six.
Also this is the fastest it's reached the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) on a Bear Cycle correction and most likely it will be the same for its 3W MA50 (blue trend-line) and 3W MA100 (green trend-line).
This is another sign that shows how every Cycle gets less and less aggressive. The first Bear Cycle dropped by roughly -94%, the second by -87%, the third by -84% and the fourth (last) by 77%. This decelerating rate reveals BTC's asymptotic behavior as more and more mass adoption kicks in with every passing Cycle. As the market stabilizes, becomes larger and more widespread, the volatility becomes lower and lower. This is a sign of maturity.
So what does this potentially mean for us and this Bear Cycle? Well that the drop will most likely be contained at -70% maximum (-7% less than the previous Cycle), a rate that may be as low as -60% (just after contacting the 3W MA100) if ETF buying interest returns or other fundamental catalysts (bitcoin treasuries etc?) accelerate adoption. So this potential range translates into a possible buy zone of $50000 - $38000 towards the end of 2026 but that's a topic we've analyzed extensively on other studies.
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#BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals $BTC

Shiba Inu (SHIBUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down since the March 2024 High, which was the former Bull Cycle's Top. 4 weeks ago it completed its first ever 1W Death Cross, potentially signaling a strong bearish extension for the current Bear Cycle.
Until that happens, we have a short-term Buy Signal at our hands as not only did the Channel Down price a new Lower Low, thus technically granting the start of a new Bullish Leg, but this also took place on the 4-year Support Zone, which has been unbroken since May 2021.
As you can see, this Zone has offered numerous long-term buy opportunities. As in 2022 and 2023, every such rebound though is limited/ restricted by the presence of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which has been rejecting every test since January 20 2025 (almost 1 year).
Based on that, unless we break the recent low, we expect SHIB to rally on the short-term and peak near the 1W MA50 at 0.0000115.
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$SHIB #shiba #SHIB #Shibalnu #SHIBUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been on a slow rebound following the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) test and is close to forming a 4H Golden Cross for the first time in more than 2 months.
However a similar rebound attempt in December 2021, at the start of the BTC's previous Bear Cycle, after also dropping by -39.50% from the top (against today's -36.20%), failed to form a 4H Golden Cross the 'last minute' and the market resumed the bearish trend towards a new Low, completing a -50.34% total decline.
So far the 1D RSI is similar to December 2021 but there is one key difference. Now Bitcoin has already tested its 1W MA100 (and rebounding) while on the previous Bear Cycle it only came close to it in February 2022. So will that favor and support the market for a little while and make that 4H Golden Cross or the 1D RSI and -36.20% identical drop fractal will push it lower? In the first case, the market will look for a 1D MA200 (black trend-line) test around $105k, which is what happened in March 2022, while in the second for a -47.30% total drop around $67000.
One thing is for sure, if Bulls want to see some relief for some time, they have to defend that 4H Golden Cross.
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$BTC #bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Avalanche (AVAXUSD) has been trading within a 2-year Channel Down which made a Lower Low bottom 3 weeks ago. The price has since then traded sideways, potentially in an attempt to price a technical Support base.
If the market doesn't break below this, there are high probabilities to see this pattern initiating a new Bullish Leg. The previous two Bullish Legs showed a declining rate on their rallies with the first hitting the 0.786 Fibonacci level but the second being only able to hit the 0.68 Fib.
If this decreasing rate continues, we shouldn't go much further than the 0.5 Fib this time. With the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1M MA50 (red trend-line) posing as the two main Resistance levels of this Bear Cycle, we place our Target below at $20.000.
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#AVAX $AVAX #AVAXUSD #Avalanche #Avaxusdt #signals

That was the last indicator standing and now it is as clear as it can get. With last month's candle close, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has confirmed that it has already started a new Bear Cycle.
The reason is simple and it is one of the most basic trading indicators out there. The 1M MACD was already on a Bearish Cross since October, and November's closing widened the gap to such extent that it is not recoverable anymore.
This has happened every time during a BTC Bear Cycle and in two of the past three cases, it took place while already on the Bear Cycle. History has shown that there is no coming back from this and BTC should start looking for the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) - 1M MA100 (green trend-line) Zone. If all the Bear Cycle indicators we've shown on analyses since September were early signs, the MACD is conclusive and as mentioned, has confirmed it.
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#BTC $BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #BTCUSD #signals

A month ago (November 05, see chart below) we gave a strong sell signal on Sui (SUIUSD), targeting 1.4320 right at the bottom of its 1-year Channel Down:
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SUIUSD/klLnKrpc-SUIUSD-Channel-Down-to-accelerate-more-selling-towards-1-4320/
The price made direct contact with the pattern's bottom (thus hitting our Target) and rebounded, pricing a Lower Low. Right now the market is in the process of forming the Bullish Leg of the Channel Up (1W RSI almost got oversold also), which we don't expect to be completed like the previous one as this is a dead-cat bounce at the time, limited by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is technically the Resistance during Bear Cycles.
The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level is also at a cluster level were the 1W MA50 could reject this bounce along with the 1W MA100 (green trend-line). We believe that the next Bearish Leg will likely break below the Channel Down and target the All Time Low Higher Lows trend-line around 0.8500, which will be a -66.00% decline from the top, similar to the previous two selling sequences.
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#sui #SUIUSDT $SUI #signals #suiusd

Litecoin (LTCUSD) started its new Bear Cycle after a rejection on the 4-year Lower Highs trend-line. Now that it sits below its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which was formally a Resistance during the Bull Cycle, we can claim that the next stage should be targeting the Higher Lows 1 trend-line.
Given that all previous Bear Cycles lasted for at least a year and that the last one dropped less than the 2018, we can expect LTC's new Bear Cycle to last up until August 2026 at least. Even a 'modest' decline should still see it targeting Higher Lows trend-line 2, which by the end of August 2026 should have hit $43.00 at least.
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$LTC #Litecoin #LTC #LTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has entered a new Bear Cycle while the stock markets remain near their All Time Highs (ATH). The general notion is that when BTC starts a Cycle (either Bull or Bear), the stock market, which on this particular analysis is the S&P500 (blue trend-line) follows suit. But how much truth is in it?
Here we see those Bear Cycles since 2011. As you can see in 2011 and 2022 both BTC and the S&P500 dropped around the same time. In 2018 even though both started falling, the S&P500 recovered shortly after, even made new ATH but dropped again remaining volatile. On the other hand in 2014, the S&P500 kept rising, even though BTC was in a Bear Cycle.
As a result, the above notion isn't 100% accurate, not entirely a 'myth' but for sure not a certainty. We even plotted all previous S&P500 sequences during BTC's Bear Cycle, on today's Cycle and as you can see the worst case scenario based on that is a 2022 type correction (grey fractal), which would bring the index back to the April 2025 lows. Bitcoin will most likely have a typical Bear Cycle, especially with the last two (2022 and 2018) being almost identical.
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$BTC #BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) remains on a short-term rebound, as mentioned before, a standard counter-trend/ dead cat bounce during Bear Cycles.
Here you see the Mayer Multiple Bands (MMB), an indicator we've used countless times to determine tops, bottoms and general trends of a Cycle. This time we plot this simple yet powerful tool to make an early estimate on the potential bottom of this Bear Cycle.
We will keep this short as there is no reason to overcomplicate things, especially at this stage. BTC is as we said on a small rebound currently after almost testing the 2SD below (blue trend-line) of the MMB. On all previous Bear Cycles show on this chart, every time this happened, the market bounced and consolidated then.
When the 2SD below trend-line broke, the market reached the 3SD below (green trend-line) rather aggressively and quickly. In all instances, that was the Bear Cycle bottom, with the only exception being the 2022 Bear Cycle, which gave one last short-term rebound/ consolidation and bottomed when it broke below the 1W MA300 (red trend-line).
The 1W MA300 has historically had a hidden but key role on BTC Cycles. When tested, always after the initial MMB bottom, it provided a 2nd and final opportunity to enter (buy) the new Bull Cycle at such a low price.
It is possible to see something like that happen again. With its course (1W MA300), assuming the current Bear Cycle also lasts for around 52 weeks (364 days) like the previous two, we estimate it to be a little under $60000 by October 2026. The MMB 3SD below though could be by that time around $40000. It is possible of course that we breach the 1W MA300 (much) earlier thus at a lower price, meaning also potentially hitting the MMB bottom a little higher.
In any case the bottom range seems roughly by $60k - $40k. Since determining the Cycles (hence Tops - exits, Lows - entries) has always been more about timing and less about pricing, this is why we've discussed before that it would be a good idea to start buying (call it DCA if it suits you better) around $60k. As always, however, these are just the facts. The decision is yours.
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#BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Stellar (XLMUSD) is in the middle of its Bear Cycle and currently consolidating within its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) - 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) in anticipating of Phase 2 of the Cycle's structure.
As you can see, the dominant pattern since the January 2018 High has been a Triangle, with the recent Cycle Top making direct contact with the Lower Highs trend-line and the bottom with the Higher Lows trend-line.
There is a very high degree of symmetry among those Cycles. Fine example is the 1W RSI, which every time it hit 38.50, the price had always tested the 1W MA200 while on its Bear Cycle and always after breaking below the initial (dashed) Triangle, which is the first pattern post the Bull Cycle Top.
As far as the bottom is concerned, there is obviously the Higher Lows trend-line to consider but at the same time, the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level can also assist as the previous two Cycle bottoms were priced just above it.
As a result we estimate that this Bear Cycle may bottom around 0.13000 before XLM turns into a long-term buy opportunity again.
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#XLM #stellar #XLMUSDT #xlmusd #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is on its 3rd straight week of consolidation on its 1W MA100 (green trend-line) after marginally breaking below it (green circle). We've shown in previous analyses how the build up, including the Higher Lows trend-line (1W RSI Lower Highs Bearish Divergence) and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) rebound, of the 2025 Bull Cycle High, mirrors the 2021 peak formation.
Given the strong similarities, there are valid probabilities suggesting that those can expand into the Bear Cycle too. And this is what we attempt to do on today's post, mapping the new Bear Cycle based on the 2022 price action.
As you can see, we have classified the 2022 Bear Cycle into three phases. The key characteristic of those is MA contact. Phase 1 ends when the price hit the 1W MA100, Phase 2 when it hits the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and Phase 3 the 1W MA350 (red trend-line). So far the symmetry is also high on the time range between the 1W MA50 and 1W MA100 contacts among the two fractals (245 days vs 224 days).
If this holds for the whole duration of the 2026 Bear Cycle as well, we can expect it to roughly be 52 weeks (364 days) rom the Bull Cycle Top to the Bear Cycle bottom, like the 2022 sequence.
The time Fibonacci levels help at maintaining a sense of positioning within the Bear Cycle, with the 0.236 Fib being just before Phase 1 ends and Fib 0.618 when Phase 2 makes contact with the 1W MA200.
Even though a straight up repeat of the -77.36% decline of the 2022 Bear Cycle would put the potential new bottom just below $30k, a Fibonacci extension symmetry suggests that Fib 1.0 was the Low we just made (1W MA100), Fib 1.5 ext around the time the price makes contact with the 1W MA200 and Fib 2.0 when the Cycle bottoms.
This indicates that $63900 is the first point of interest (and potentially start of buying) and $51000 the potential bottom.
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#BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Ethereum (ETHUSD) completed on Saturday its first 1D Death Cross in 9 months (since February 28 2025) and today the market is (so far) reacting violently to it with a strong sell-off.
The market didn't even manage to re-test its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on last week's rebound and if it follows the 2022 Bear Cycle, it may look for a bottom after completing a -52.50% decline from its Cycle Top. Technically, even the build up to the Cycle Top resembles the 2021/22 fractal and as you can see the similarities are even evident on their 1D RSI sequences.
As a result, if this 1st Bear Cycle wave for ETH bottoms around $2400, we could be expecting a first rebound to test the 1D MA50 (within the 0.382 - 0.5 Fibonacci range, i.e. around $3100) and get rejected, followed by one last to test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), within the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci levels (i.e. above $3350) and get rejected to start the 2nd wave of the Bear Cycle.
Would you 'trust' this Bear Cycle build up?
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#ETH #Ethereum #ETHUSD #ETHUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has more likely than not entered a new Bull Cycle, a subject that we've covered extensively over the past 2 months.
As discussed however, there is no reason not to expect technical rallies here and there, practically as we've shown those are quite common in the basic Bear Cycle structure. Historically, moreover, bullish rallies of Bear Cycles have been on average more aggressive than those during Bull Cycles.
So now that the intro is over, let's move to the main course. BTC's sell-off since its October 06 $126400 All Time High (ATH) has been a Bearish Leg similar to the previous major correction of January 20 - April 07. In fact it technically seems that they are both a part of a Channel Up. Having also just completed a 1D MACD Bullish Cross as in March (though that structure made one final Low), it appears as if the first counter-trend rally of this Bull Cycle that we've talked about in the past 10 days, may materialize.
In fact, it is already under way and as we've shown in past analyses, it aims and is restricted by the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is the natural technical Resistance during Bear Cycles. If it actually repeats the Jan - April 2025 correction, it should now test the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on the Lower Highs trend-line, which has been the Resistance during these past 2 months.
That strong immediate Resistance Cluster also has the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which is also where the April rebound got rejected and consolidated for a few days. As a result, Target 1 is at $95850.
The second and final (over extended) Target of this is, as mentioned the 1D MA200, outside of the Lower Highs trend-line. A target scenario for this, where the price could make marginal contact with the 1D MA200, is $106450. This is where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level is, which was also Target 2 for the April fractal and where the second consolidation took place.
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#BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

First of all allow me to wish everyone Happy Thanksgiving with all the blessings this day may bring to your family and loved ones.
As for Bitcoin (BTCUSD), the anticipated short-term rebound is targeting the first Lower High of the emerging Bear Cycle. What's critical in this? The 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and the reason is simple.
As the previous three Cycles show on this graph, when BTC starts a Bear Cycle and breaks below its 1D MA200, it then turns into the Resistance for the rest of the Cycle. And as you can see, it rejected every single time the Lower Highs. Practically that is the most optimal level for someone to short for as long as the Bear Cycle lasts.
As a result, we expect the current counter-trend rally/ dead-cat bounce (call it as you want), to be limited by the 1D MA200, which is currently at $110k and falling, then get rejected and start the next Bearish Leg of the Channel Down.
So do you think the 1D MA200 will play the role of the long-term Resistance from now on? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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#BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Dogecoin (DOGEUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down since its December 02 2024 weekly High, which turned out to technically be the top of its Bull Cycle.
The latest Lower Low of that pattern was on the October 06 2025 weekly flash crash but since then it retraced back into the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) - 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) range. The 1W MA200 has been the market's Support throughout the whole 2025. The 1W MA50 typically assumes the role of the long-term Resistance during Bear Cycles.
As a result, we expect a short-term rebound now for Doge, but that should be limited by the 1W MA50. This is also where the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level is from the October 06 Low, a Fib level where he September 08 2025 Lower High was priced.
Based on that, Doge could target $0.20 (Fib 0.618) and then resume the downtrend on the Channel's new Bearish Leg. If it follows the -7% decreasing rate of the previous Bearish Leg, we can see it bottom after a 59% decline, which should be around $0.085.
Notice also that last week's Low, wasn't only on the 1W MA200 but also on the 1W RSI's Support Zone. A Zone that has been holding since June 05 2023, essentially the major Support of the Bull Cycle, and has provided four perfect buy entries already.
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#DOGE #Dogecoin‬⁩ #DOGEUSD #DOGEUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is experiencing a short-term rebound, whose possibility of taking place we discussed last week. This rebound can technically test and get rejected on a trend-line that all previous Bear Cycles did, the Lower Highs trend-line.
As you can see, that trend-line has been present during all cyclical corrections, essentially being the Bear Cycle's natural Resistance level. Basically the whole structure of every Bear Cycle has been similar, displaying also a Pivot trend-line, which was either a previous High or a Support and once broken, strong sell-off continuation towards the Cycle's bottom. The first two Cycle's (since 2014), bottomed on their 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), while the last one near the 1M MA100 (green trend-line).
Right now the market almost hit that Pivot and a short-term rebound and rejection on the Lower Highs trend-line, may initiate Phase 2 by February 2026.
Notice also the similar 1W RSI Lower Highs structure among the Bear Cycles, being a Bearish Divergence early call for the Bull Cycle Top.
Based on all the above, it shouldn't be surprising if BTC bottoms near or on its 1M MA100 this time also, even though (as explained on previous analyses), it would be a good idea to start buying after roughly $60000 breaks.
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#BTC #bitcoin #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Cardano (ADAUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down since its December 02 2024 weekly top and undeniably has (long) started its new Bear Cycle.
This Channel Down has however bottomed (Lower Low) and with the 1W RSI hitting also its 3 year Support (essentially the Support of the whole Bull Cycle), it is possible to give us a strong Bear Cycle rally.
This rally would technically be the pattern's new Bullish Leg with the previous two both peaking on the 0.8 Fibonacci level. This time however, ADA is trading below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and during Bear Cycle's, that is the trend's main Resistance.
As a result, we believe the rebound is limited at a maximum price of $0.6500.
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#Cardano #ADA #ADAUSD #ADAUSDT #signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed last week brutally below its 2W MA20 (red trend-line) and has started this week off with the first signs of a potential rebound. We explained on previous analyses the dynamics of the 1W MA50 bearish closing as well as the rebound potential on the 1W MA100 but today are looking at what this 2W MA20 bearish closing means.
First of all, observe for a moment the remarkable symmetry between the 2W MA20 bearish closings across all Bear Cycles. The date range between the March 31 2014 and March 26 2018 2W MA20 closings was 104 candles (1456 days), March 26 2018 and December 06 2021 was 97 candles (1351 days) and December 06 2021 and today's November 10 2025 was again 103 candles (1435 days).
As you can see on two of those three occasions, BTC initially rebounded above the 2W MA20 again but then got rejected back below and consolidated while turning the 2W MA20 into its main Resistance for the rest of the Bear Cycle. In 2022 it just fell below it and consolidated for 4 months before getting violently rejected to new Lows.
As a result, given also the amazing symmetry of the 2W RSI sequence among those fractals, we still expect the market to potentially deliver the first counter-trend rally (limited) of the Bear Cycle, namely 'Santa's Rally' but then get strongly rejected below the 2W MA20 again.
We call this the start of the 'Bear Cycle's High Volatility Period' and needless to say, it is the phase where due to the aggressive ups and downs in range, most traders/ investors can potentially get trapped. Following Bitcoin's 4-year Cycle Theory (and our 2020 Golden ratio) has historically never let us down and until invalidated will continue to be the way to go for us.
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#bitcoin #BTC #BTCUSD #BTCUSDT #signals

Tron (TRXUSD) closed last week below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since March 20 2023. Those +2.5 years it has been riding the new Bull Cycle within a Channel Up that peaked on the December 02 2024 1W candle, around the majority of the altcoin market.
The current 1W MA50 break seems similar to the December 13 2021 one that was also initiated after a 0.236 Fibonacci level rejection and confirmed the subsequent Bear Cycle. With the 1M RSI brutally falling below its MA, we believe the market may have again confirmed the new Bear Cycle and the next target (as then) is the 1W MA100 (green trend-line).
Our long-term projection for a Cycle bottom is the 0.786 Fib, unless the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) gets hit after August 2026. If not we believe the market may bottom around at least 0.16500, which is still a more optimistic scenario as it falls even above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level from the November 14 2022 (previous) bottom.
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#Tron #TRX #TRXUSD #Trxusdt #signals