Today’s takeaway
3 days of exchange outflows, 8 days of OI decline, and funding turning positive suggest short-term deleveraging may be ending, but confirmation is needed.
Key points
Exchange netflow on 2026-03-24 was -1,165 BTC, marking 3 consecutive outflow days after -7,810 BTC (3/23) and -8,428 BTC (3/22). A major outflow of -18,933 BTC occurred on 3/16. Outflows dominate recent data, though size is decreasing, implying easing sell pressure. Whale movement to OTC or cold wallets remains unconfirmed.
OI is $21.51B, down 7.8% from the 3/16 peak ($23.33B), with 8 straight days of decline. This reflects gradual deleveraging rather than forced liquidations. Entering new longs before an OI bottom forms remains risky.
Funding rate is +0.0044%, turning positive after a week of negative values (low: -0.0114%). This suggests short dominance is fading and normalization is underway, though still far from overheated levels.
View
The market is in a phase of resolving uncertainty rather than forming a clear trend. Exchange outflows suggest accumulation, but combined with falling OI, they may also reflect weak demand. The key is whether funding stays positive and strengthens.
The 3/16 outflow aligned with the OI peak, indicating flows were reactive rather than leading price.
This is a post-cooling phase. Watch if OI stabilizes and rebounds, and whether funding sustains above +0.01%. If funding rises without OI recovery, it likely signals noise.
Probabilities
Stabilization: 55–60%
Further downside: 20–25%
Sideways: 15–25%
Summary
Outflows continue, OI is falling, and funding has turned positive.
Deleveraging may be nearing completion, but trend confirmation is still required.
Checkpoints
Netflow direction, OI support near $21.5B, funding trend, and potential return of large inflows.
Written by CoinNiel