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Основные выводы

Сингапур и ОАЭ показали, что четкие правила лицензирования и стейблкойнов могут привлечь учреждения, не заставляя стартапы уходить за границу.
Стейблкойны и токенизация стали приоритетами для регулирования, формируя рамки в ЕС, США, Гонконге и Южной Корее.
Страны с определенными путями одобрения двигались быстрее, чем рынки, полагающиеся на действия правоохранительных органов или неформальные рекомендации.
Исполнение, а не объявления, разделили юрисдикции, которые обеспечили оперативную ясность от тех, кто все еще находится в стадии консультаций.

Ripple’s XRP is entering a delicate transition phase. While ETF inflows initially painted a bullish picture, deeper market signals now suggest that support is weakening beneath the surface. A combination of slowing ETF demand, long-term holder distribution, and declining derivatives participation hints that XRP’s next move may be shaped more by fragility than strength.

8
ETF Inflows: From Catalyst to Cooldown

XRP ETFs delivered a strong early boost, pushing Total Net Assets to approximately $1.24 billion. However, recent sessions show that daily inflows have sharply slowed, with several days barely registering new capital.

Importantly, this is not a mass exit — assets remain elevated. Instead, it signals that the initial ETF-driven demand wave is losing momentum. Price stability without strong follow-through buying suggests accumulation has stalled.

Earlier, institutional inflows combined with whale accumulation helped absorb sell pressure quietly. That stabilizing force now appears to be fading.

Long-Term Holders Are Reducing Exposure

On-chain data reinforces this shift.

According to Glassnode HODL Waves, wallets holding XRP for 2–3 years — typically considered long-term, conviction-based holders — have significantly reduced their share of supply:

Late November: ~14.26%

Late December: ~5.66%

This sharp decline in just one month suggests profit-taking or strategic de-risking by long-term participants. When such holders step aside during a period of slowing inflows, the market loses an important layer of structural price support.

Derivatives Market Signals Caution
The derivatives side tells a similar story.
XRP’s Open Interest on Binance has dropped to around $450 million, the lowest level since November 2024. This marks a notable decline from recent highs and reflects:
Widespread position closures
Reduced leveraged long exposure
Traders stepping back rather than positioning for upside

Falling OI usually indicates risk aversion, not bullish buildup. With less leverage in the system, price action becomes more thin, reactive, and sentiment-driven.

Market Implications
With ETF inflows cooling, long-term holders distributing, and leverage unwinding, XRP is losing the foundational support that previously kept price stable.

This doesn’t automatically imply a sharp sell-off — but it does mean that:
Upside catalysts need fresh demand
Downside moves may accelerate on weak confidence
Price is more vulnerable to sudden sentiment shifts

Outlook: Confidence Will Decide the Next Move

XRP now sits in a confidence-driven zone. Without renewed participation from institutions, long-term holders, or derivatives traders, the market lacks a clear anchor.
The next meaningful move — up or down — is likely to be driven not by hype, but by whether conviction returns.
For now, XRP remains stable, but exposed.