AriaNaka
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AriaNaka
Founder of BlockWeb3 | Elite KOL at CoinMarketCap and Binance | On-Chain Research and Market Insights
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All signals are shared in the group first before being posted anywhere else. Some exclusive trades are only available in the group, including certain Alpha coins that won’t be posted elsewhere.
Join the group, connect with me there, and feel free to message me directly.
Let’s grow together. 🚀
$BTC liquidity update
> Long liqLevels: 399 | Short liqLevels: 133 (Δ +266 / ~$10B)
> Longs are becoming increasingly exposed.
What’s notable:
Yesterday’s selling was fully absorbed by passive bids, leading to the bounce we’re seeing now.
However:
Since then, a significant amount of new liquidity has built up.
Price has reacted almost perfectly at the AVWAP so far.
With today’s US holiday, I’m not expecting much directional expansion.
My expectation:
More ranging, liquidity spikes, and positioning before the next meaningful move.
HTF plan remains unchanged
> Long liqLevels: 399 | Short liqLevels: 133 (Δ +266 / ~$10B)
> Longs are becoming increasingly exposed.
What’s notable:
Yesterday’s selling was fully absorbed by passive bids, leading to the bounce we’re seeing now.
However:
Since then, a significant amount of new liquidity has built up.
Price has reacted almost perfectly at the AVWAP so far.
With today’s US holiday, I’m not expecting much directional expansion.
My expectation:
More ranging, liquidity spikes, and positioning before the next meaningful move.
HTF plan remains unchanged
Nothing has changed with my $BTC swing long.
I'm expecting to hold this for 1.5–2 years.
I expect BTC above 80K in Q1 next year, and above 110K around Q4 2027.
~488 days to go.
If you can't be patient, don't follow me. However, you might regret it later.
I'm expecting to hold this for 1.5–2 years.
I expect BTC above 80K in Q1 next year, and above 110K around Q4 2027.
~488 days to go.
If you can't be patient, don't follow me. However, you might regret it later.
$BTC Longs currently outweigh shorts 2:1, with almost $5 billion in long liquidations compared to only about $2 billion in short liquidations.
This simply reflects how aggressive perp buyers have been over the past week.
For me, this kind of greed isn’t what you typically see at the absolute bottom.
Also doesn’t mean we can’t go higher from here.
This simply reflects how aggressive perp buyers have been over the past week.
For me, this kind of greed isn’t what you typically see at the absolute bottom.
Also doesn’t mean we can’t go higher from here.
$BTC Rising Wedge, Reversal?
Looking for a break of this ascending trendline to confirm LTF pullback.
62k resistance held strong, so far...
Looking for a break of this ascending trendline to confirm LTF pullback.
62k resistance held strong, so far...
Really strong $NEAR bounce over the $1.8 support. Now squeezing against the local downtrend resistance looking for the bullish breakout.Key decision time
$SOL just broke $80 after bouncing +32% from the recent low of $60.
The RSI is also showing a reversal.
$ANSEM single handedly revived the trenches.
The RSI is also showing a reversal.
$ANSEM single handedly revived the trenches.
$BTC Massive buy wall below.
Looking at the order book pressure, there are massive amounts of bids between 58k and 55k.
This marks the strongest support zone from a demand perspective.
Now the only question is whether we’ll revisit this zone and fill some of those orders, or if the market front-runs them instead.
In my opinion, we won’t fill all of these bids, but I still believe the bottom isn’t in yet.
I expect one final push lower, but I think it’s very unlikely that we’ll see 50k this cycle.
Looking at the order book pressure, there are massive amounts of bids between 58k and 55k.
This marks the strongest support zone from a demand perspective.
Now the only question is whether we’ll revisit this zone and fill some of those orders, or if the market front-runs them instead.
In my opinion, we won’t fill all of these bids, but I still believe the bottom isn’t in yet.
I expect one final push lower, but I think it’s very unlikely that we’ll see 50k this cycle.
The gap between the resistance levels of high-leverage positions for $ETH is quite wide.
Although it is currently being suppressed by strong pressure, a rapid rise is possible if the situation reverses.
The size of the high-leverage long positions to be liquidated is also small.
Although it is currently being suppressed by strong pressure, a rapid rise is possible if the situation reverses.
The size of the high-leverage long positions to be liquidated is also small.
$BTC MACD monthly chart is right on schedule.
Once the MACD had a bearish crossover in 2022, it took ten months to find THE bottom.
If similar, then we find bottom in 3 months.
Once the MACD had a bearish crossover in 2022, it took ten months to find THE bottom.
If similar, then we find bottom in 3 months.
$BTC Only a matter of time before the high-leverage shorts to the upside get liquidated.
Most are turning bearish at the lows, while July has historically produced upside during bear markets.
I remain long, targeting 64K & 69K.
Most are turning bearish at the lows, while July has historically produced upside during bear markets.
I remain long, targeting 64K & 69K.
Even if $BTC is going lower on the LTF
I expect some relief first.
We just swept major liquidations at the lows. If we are going to see one final leg into the low 50Ks, I wouldn't be surprised to see a little rally first.
Before the FTX collapse, BTC rallied on the LTF before the final flush. Something similar could play out again.
I expect some relief first.
We just swept major liquidations at the lows. If we are going to see one final leg into the low 50Ks, I wouldn't be surprised to see a little rally first.
Before the FTX collapse, BTC rallied on the LTF before the final flush. Something similar could play out again.
$SOL continues to bounce but higher time frames suggest it's not altseason.
Flip the 4th retracement target from resistance into support + higher time frames flip bullish = changes viewpoint.
Price dropped -40% and now we are seeing a bounce.
Flip the 4th retracement target from resistance into support + higher time frames flip bullish = changes viewpoint.
Price dropped -40% and now we are seeing a bounce.
The Total Altcoin Market Cap has already confirmed a breakdown from its 2.5+ year range.
There was an attempt at breaking back into it two weeks ago but this has ended up in a bearish retest.
It now finds itself in between two major horizontal levels with the breakout level from November 2023 right below.
There was an attempt at breaking back into it two weeks ago but this has ended up in a bearish retest.
It now finds itself in between two major horizontal levels with the breakout level from November 2023 right below.
$BTC Inverted Head and Shoulders + Falling Wedge Pattern.
After sweeping that big chunk of liquidation last night, its likely we see a small bounce today.
Wednesdays are also normal pivot days, usually sweeping Monday / Tuesdays PA.
After sweeping that big chunk of liquidation last night, its likely we see a small bounce today.
Wednesdays are also normal pivot days, usually sweeping Monday / Tuesdays PA.
The 6 month candle closes in just a few hours.
Over the past 2 cycles, $BTC has never printed more than 2 consecutive red 6 month candles.
Another interesting observation: in both previous occurrences, Bitcoin never revisited the low of the second red 6-month candle.
Either way, I would bet on the next 6 month candle being green.
Over the past 2 cycles, $BTC has never printed more than 2 consecutive red 6 month candles.
Another interesting observation: in both previous occurrences, Bitcoin never revisited the low of the second red 6-month candle.
Either way, I would bet on the next 6 month candle being green.
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