#btc
btc
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🟡 Bitcoin price wobbles ahead of Fed’s rate decision
Bitcoin (BTC) dipped as low as $59,500 on Binance ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market participants are bracing for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), with expectations set for unchanged interest rates.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a mere 4.4% of economists predict a rate cut—the first in over a decade—while a dominant 95.6% anticipate rates to hold steady between 525-550 basis points.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market data indicates a 36% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. Four months ago, the likelihood of maintaining current rates was only about 3%.
Expectations have also shifted to just one reduction this year. Previously, the market anticipated six rate cuts. Additionally, the probability of experiencing two or more rate cuts has diminished to 31%.
🔺 Stagflation risk
Amidst this financial climate, the US grapples with stagflation risks as inflation persists and economic growth slows.
The first quarter of 2024 saw GDP growth decelerate to 1.6%, falling short of the 2.2% forecast and down from the previous quarter’s 3.4%. Concurrently, the US Core PCE inflation index climbed from 2.0% to 3.7%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent data does not make the Fed more confident, suggesting a longer timeline to regain economic stability. He expressed belief in the adequacy of current policies to navigate the risks at hand, hinting at sustained high-interest rates without increases.
Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrored these economic uncertainties, dropping below $62,000 earlier in the week due to renewed stagflation worries.
A brief rally above $64,000 occurred with the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong yesterday, but the momentum was short-lived as investor caution set in ahead of the Fed’s key decision.
$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC) dipped as low as $59,500 on Binance ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Market participants are bracing for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), with expectations set for unchanged interest rates.
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a mere 4.4% of economists predict a rate cut—the first in over a decade—while a dominant 95.6% anticipate rates to hold steady between 525-550 basis points.
According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market data indicates a 36% probability that there will be no interest rate cuts this year. Four months ago, the likelihood of maintaining current rates was only about 3%.
Expectations have also shifted to just one reduction this year. Previously, the market anticipated six rate cuts. Additionally, the probability of experiencing two or more rate cuts has diminished to 31%.
🔺 Stagflation risk
Amidst this financial climate, the US grapples with stagflation risks as inflation persists and economic growth slows.
The first quarter of 2024 saw GDP growth decelerate to 1.6%, falling short of the 2.2% forecast and down from the previous quarter’s 3.4%. Concurrently, the US Core PCE inflation index climbed from 2.0% to 3.7%.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that recent data does not make the Fed more confident, suggesting a longer timeline to regain economic stability. He expressed belief in the adequacy of current policies to navigate the risks at hand, hinting at sustained high-interest rates without increases.
Bitcoin’s trajectory mirrored these economic uncertainties, dropping below $62,000 earlier in the week due to renewed stagflation worries.
A brief rally above $64,000 occurred with the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in Hong Kong yesterday, but the momentum was short-lived as investor caution set in ahead of the Fed’s key decision.
$BTC #BTC #Bitcoin
币圈的好日子还有一周多点就要到头了!
1、5月16号即将上任的凯文沃什，美联储主席新官上任三把火，在前两任主席上台的时候基本都是暴跌，都会在上任的6个月里第二次进行大回撤。
2、沃什极其鹰派并且是芝加哥学派的代表人物，主张缩表！他认为美联储应该默不作声，减少与市场的交流，这对市场流动性的减少是非常致命的。
3、BTC盘面即将到头，目前高位震荡盘整，日线上方重要压力7W9和8W1附近，估计下周开始就会有所动作。
所以说做山寨的朋友能出局的就在这段时间高位出局，刚好现在币圈反弹的非常不错，持有的该出局就出局，等出现大底的时候你再重新以更低的价格买回岂不是更好，不要怕他跌不回来，今年毕竟还是熊市，就算没有沃什，也会有二次探底的，这只是时间问题。
#btc
1、5月16号即将上任的凯文沃什，美联储主席新官上任三把火，在前两任主席上台的时候基本都是暴跌，都会在上任的6个月里第二次进行大回撤。
2、沃什极其鹰派并且是芝加哥学派的代表人物，主张缩表！他认为美联储应该默不作声，减少与市场的交流，这对市场流动性的减少是非常致命的。
3、BTC盘面即将到头，目前高位震荡盘整，日线上方重要压力7W9和8W1附近，估计下周开始就会有所动作。
所以说做山寨的朋友能出局的就在这段时间高位出局，刚好现在币圈反弹的非常不错，持有的该出局就出局，等出现大底的时候你再重新以更低的价格买回岂不是更好，不要怕他跌不回来，今年毕竟还是熊市，就算没有沃什，也会有二次探底的，这只是时间问题。
#btc
Feed-Creator-8f5b024cc:
谁给你今年是熊市？刻舟求剑？
‼️BTC прогноз с 27 апреля по 3 мая ‼️
📍Начало недели:
Ожидаем хороший и импульсный лонг, но не все так просто, будьте внимательны так как по графику вы этот лонг видеть не будете!!!!
📍Середина недели:
Манипуляция из-за скрытой информации, которая будет негативно влиять на рост, создавая ему препятствия и трудности.
📍Конец недели:
Есть возможность и силы хорошо рости, но не будут давать это делать в полную силу. Такое ощущение, что искусственно примораживают и подтормаживают. Может выглядеть как сильный рост и сразу ограничения для продолжения роста $BTC
#btc #прогноз
📍Начало недели:
Ожидаем хороший и импульсный лонг, но не все так просто, будьте внимательны так как по графику вы этот лонг видеть не будете!!!!
📍Середина недели:
Манипуляция из-за скрытой информации, которая будет негативно влиять на рост, создавая ему препятствия и трудности.
📍Конец недели:
Есть возможность и силы хорошо рости, но не будут давать это делать в полную силу. Такое ощущение, что искусственно примораживают и подтормаживают. Может выглядеть как сильный рост и сразу ограничения для продолжения роста $BTC
#btc #прогноз
Guys, on the 1-hour chart of $BTC I’m seeing a very clear and strong scalp long opportunity 🤤👀
For the past few hours, $BTC has been following a clean pattern tapping resistance, then coming down to support, and repeating the cycle. Right now, price is reacting perfectly from the support zone and starting to move upward again, which gives a solid long setup.
I’m personally taking this scalp long trade based on this structure 📈
Entry: $77,500 – $77,600
Target: $78,000
Stop Loss: $77,000
Let’s see how this plays out—whether we hit our target or not 🤝
If you have any questions or want more clarity, feel free to drop them in the comments 👇
#Bitcoin #btc #BinanceLaunchesGoldvs.BTCTradingCompetition
For the past few hours, $BTC has been following a clean pattern tapping resistance, then coming down to support, and repeating the cycle. Right now, price is reacting perfectly from the support zone and starting to move upward again, which gives a solid long setup.
I’m personally taking this scalp long trade based on this structure 📈
Entry: $77,500 – $77,600
Target: $78,000
Stop Loss: $77,000
Let’s see how this plays out—whether we hit our target or not 🤝
If you have any questions or want more clarity, feel free to drop them in the comments 👇
#Bitcoin #btc #BinanceLaunchesGoldvs.BTCTradingCompetition
TradeWithEnaya:
Target Will Above 80K
$BTC
*7 Saran Wajib Buat Trader Pemula Biar Akun Nggak Gosong*
Market itu tempat transfer duit dari orang nggak sabar ke orang sabar. Kalau kamu baru mulai, pegang ini:
*1. Lindungi Modal Dulu, Cuan Belakangan*
Target #1 bukan 100% sebulan. Target #1: _jangan ilang modal 3 bulan_.
- *Rule 1%*: Risiko maks 1% modal per trade. Modal 10jt = rugi maks 100rb per posisi. Biar bisa salah 100x sebelum bangkrut.
- Nggak ada SL = judi. Titik.
*2. Cuma Pakai Uang Dingin*
Uang buat trading = uang yang kalau hilang, hidupmu nggak berubah. Jangan pakai uang kontrakan, SPP, apalagi pinjol. Tekanan butuh profit bikin keputusan ngawur.
*3. Kuasai 1 Setup Dulu, Jangan Loncat-loncat*
Belajar 10 indikator = jago 0. Kuasai 1 setup sampai berdarah-darah. Contoh:
- *Break & retest support jadi resistance*
- *Entry cuma kalau BTC searah*
Backtest 100x di TradingView. Kalau winrate + RR-nya bagus, baru pakai duit beneran.
*4. Jurnal = Senjata Rahasia*
Tiap entry catat:
- *Kenapa masuk*: Sinyal apa?
- *Kenapa keluar*: TP/SL kena? Panik?
- *Screenshot chart* sebelum & sesudah
Review tiap minggu. 90% kesalahan pemula itu diulang-ulang. Jurnal bikin kamu sadar.
*5. Jangan Lawan Trend, Apalagi BTC*
“Buy low sell high” bikin banyak pemula nangkap pisau jatuh. Buat pemula: _trend is your friend_.
BTC turun = altcoin berdarah. Mau long alt? Tunggu BTC kasih lampu hijau dulu.
*6. Jauhi Grup Signal & “Guru” Pamer Profit*
Kalau dia jago trading, ngapain jualan grup 50rb/bulan? Fokus ke proses, bukan ikut-ikutan call. Nggak ada yang peduli sama duitmu selain kamu.
*7. Weekend Libur, Otak Reset*
Ini nyambung sama chat tadi. Likuiditas tipis = chart ngawur. Pakai weekend buat belajar, evaluasi, istirahat. Trader itu maraton, bukan sprint.
*Bonus Mindset*:
- *Kalah itu biaya sekolah*. Nggak ada trader yang nggak pernah MC. Bedanya: yang beneran belajar dari loss.
- *Bosen itu bagus*. Kalau trading kamu isinya nunggu setup A+ berjam-jam, berarti kamu di jalur benar. Adrenalin = musuh.
#btc #solana
*7 Saran Wajib Buat Trader Pemula Biar Akun Nggak Gosong*
Market itu tempat transfer duit dari orang nggak sabar ke orang sabar. Kalau kamu baru mulai, pegang ini:
*1. Lindungi Modal Dulu, Cuan Belakangan*
Target #1 bukan 100% sebulan. Target #1: _jangan ilang modal 3 bulan_.
- *Rule 1%*: Risiko maks 1% modal per trade. Modal 10jt = rugi maks 100rb per posisi. Biar bisa salah 100x sebelum bangkrut.
- Nggak ada SL = judi. Titik.
*2. Cuma Pakai Uang Dingin*
Uang buat trading = uang yang kalau hilang, hidupmu nggak berubah. Jangan pakai uang kontrakan, SPP, apalagi pinjol. Tekanan butuh profit bikin keputusan ngawur.
*3. Kuasai 1 Setup Dulu, Jangan Loncat-loncat*
Belajar 10 indikator = jago 0. Kuasai 1 setup sampai berdarah-darah. Contoh:
- *Break & retest support jadi resistance*
- *Entry cuma kalau BTC searah*
Backtest 100x di TradingView. Kalau winrate + RR-nya bagus, baru pakai duit beneran.
*4. Jurnal = Senjata Rahasia*
Tiap entry catat:
- *Kenapa masuk*: Sinyal apa?
- *Kenapa keluar*: TP/SL kena? Panik?
- *Screenshot chart* sebelum & sesudah
Review tiap minggu. 90% kesalahan pemula itu diulang-ulang. Jurnal bikin kamu sadar.
*5. Jangan Lawan Trend, Apalagi BTC*
“Buy low sell high” bikin banyak pemula nangkap pisau jatuh. Buat pemula: _trend is your friend_.
BTC turun = altcoin berdarah. Mau long alt? Tunggu BTC kasih lampu hijau dulu.
*6. Jauhi Grup Signal & “Guru” Pamer Profit*
Kalau dia jago trading, ngapain jualan grup 50rb/bulan? Fokus ke proses, bukan ikut-ikutan call. Nggak ada yang peduli sama duitmu selain kamu.
*7. Weekend Libur, Otak Reset*
Ini nyambung sama chat tadi. Likuiditas tipis = chart ngawur. Pakai weekend buat belajar, evaluasi, istirahat. Trader itu maraton, bukan sprint.
*Bonus Mindset*:
- *Kalah itu biaya sekolah*. Nggak ada trader yang nggak pernah MC. Bedanya: yang beneran belajar dari loss.
- *Bosen itu bagus*. Kalau trading kamu isinya nunggu setup A+ berjam-jam, berarti kamu di jalur benar. Adrenalin = musuh.
#btc #solana
AI Kiani:
Thanks. Wish you the same :)
Bitcoin is currently sitting in a decisive breakout range between $77.8K and $80K.
As long as price holds above $76K, the broader bullish structure remains intact.
A confirmed daily close above $80K would likely trigger the next leg up toward $87K, with further upside targets at $94.5K and $102K.
Losing $76K would weaken the structure and increase the probability of a pullback toward $74.3K, and possibly as low as $71.9K.
$80K — breakout confirmation
$76K — critical support
$87K — initial upside target
#btc #Write2Earn #TRUMP $STO
As long as price holds above $76K, the broader bullish structure remains intact.
A confirmed daily close above $80K would likely trigger the next leg up toward $87K, with further upside targets at $94.5K and $102K.
Losing $76K would weaken the structure and increase the probability of a pullback toward $74.3K, and possibly as low as $71.9K.
$80K — breakout confirmation
$76K — critical support
$87K — initial upside target
#btc #Write2Earn #TRUMP $STO
比特币升级抗量子算法，对整个比特币社区而言，几乎是一场真正意义上的生死考验。
从最基础的交易手续费来看，抗量子算法的升级成本远比多数人想象得更高。
当前比特币主要使用的是 ECDSA 与 Schnorr 签名体系，而主流抗量子签名方案，无论是 Dilithium、Falcon 还是 SPHINCS+，签名体积通常都会比现有方案大数倍，甚至十倍以上。这意味着同样一个区块，能够容纳的交易数量会大幅下降，链上空间将变得更加稀缺。
最直接的结果就是，手续费暴涨。按照理论测算，升级完成后，比特币单笔交易手续费保守估计会上升三倍以上，区块交易速度保守会延迟3～6倍，现实情况下接近六倍并不夸张。而比特币作为 PoW 公链，不像智能合约链那样能够通过更灵活的结构优化来缓冲成本，所以这种上涨几乎是硬性的。
如果再遇到类似符文那种链上交易量激增的情况，手续费竞争会变得极其残酷。在极端行情下，一笔普通比特币转账手续费甚至可能突破10 万美元。这意味着，比特币 Layer1 将彻底脱离普通用户，真正变成只属于机构、国家和大型资本的清算层。普通人只能被迫迁移到闪电网络、二层协议，甚至中心化托管体系之中。而这还不是最棘手的问题。
真正的核心挑战，在于那些沉默地址。包括，永久失联的钱包、丢失私钥的地址、已故持有者的资产、无法完成迁移的早期地址、以及最敏感的、中本聪地址。这些地址所涉及的比特币总量，大约在 500 万到 600 万枚之间。
一旦进入量子时代，这些没有完成抗量子迁移的资产，理论上都可能成为被攻击和盗取的目标。于是整个社区必须面对一个极其残酷的问题，这些币，到底还算不算合法产权？
$BTC $ETH $LDO #btc #eth
从最基础的交易手续费来看，抗量子算法的升级成本远比多数人想象得更高。
当前比特币主要使用的是 ECDSA 与 Schnorr 签名体系，而主流抗量子签名方案，无论是 Dilithium、Falcon 还是 SPHINCS+，签名体积通常都会比现有方案大数倍，甚至十倍以上。这意味着同样一个区块，能够容纳的交易数量会大幅下降，链上空间将变得更加稀缺。
最直接的结果就是，手续费暴涨。按照理论测算，升级完成后，比特币单笔交易手续费保守估计会上升三倍以上，区块交易速度保守会延迟3～6倍，现实情况下接近六倍并不夸张。而比特币作为 PoW 公链，不像智能合约链那样能够通过更灵活的结构优化来缓冲成本，所以这种上涨几乎是硬性的。
如果再遇到类似符文那种链上交易量激增的情况，手续费竞争会变得极其残酷。在极端行情下，一笔普通比特币转账手续费甚至可能突破10 万美元。这意味着，比特币 Layer1 将彻底脱离普通用户，真正变成只属于机构、国家和大型资本的清算层。普通人只能被迫迁移到闪电网络、二层协议，甚至中心化托管体系之中。而这还不是最棘手的问题。
真正的核心挑战，在于那些沉默地址。包括，永久失联的钱包、丢失私钥的地址、已故持有者的资产、无法完成迁移的早期地址、以及最敏感的、中本聪地址。这些地址所涉及的比特币总量，大约在 500 万到 600 万枚之间。
一旦进入量子时代，这些没有完成抗量子迁移的资产，理论上都可能成为被攻击和盗取的目标。于是整个社区必须面对一个极其残酷的问题，这些币，到底还算不算合法产权？
$BTC $ETH $LDO #btc #eth
剑纸苍穹:
好可怕
🚀 ¡EL SÁBADO NO ES PARA HODLEAR ABURRIDO! 🛡️📉
"¿Te vas a quedar mirando cómo se mueve de lado o vas a ir a donde está el dinero real hoy? 📡
☕ El mercado lateral es para los impacientes, la volatilidad es para los que facturamos. 🛡️🔥
Lo que está pasando AHORA (12:00 PM):
🦾 $FET : Mientras Bitcoin descansa, la IA sigue acumulando fuerza. Si rompe la resistencia de la mañana, ¡nos vamos al siguiente nivel! 🤖🚀
🐸 $PEPE : El volumen de las memecoins está explotando. Es adrenalina pura y liquidez inmediata. ¡Ojo a los movimientos bruscos! 🌊💸
🟠 $BTC : Sigue atrapado en los $78,200. Pero recuerda: ¡el precio en Bs no se detiene! Mira los cashtags abajo para ver el valor real en tiempo real. 🧭💎🇻🇪
💡 El Consejo de CryptoVoz: No dejes tu capital durmiendo. Usa el mercado lateral para hacer Scalping en las monedas con volumen. ¡Ese es el secreto de los profesionales este fin de semana! 🛡️🧠
👇 HAZ CLIC en los cashtags ($BTC , $FET , $PEPE ) abajo para ver los gráficos y dinos: ¿En qué bando estás hoy, IA o Memes? 👇
#Cryptovoz #btc #fet #pepe #EarnMoney
"¿Te vas a quedar mirando cómo se mueve de lado o vas a ir a donde está el dinero real hoy? 📡
☕ El mercado lateral es para los impacientes, la volatilidad es para los que facturamos. 🛡️🔥
Lo que está pasando AHORA (12:00 PM):
🦾 $FET : Mientras Bitcoin descansa, la IA sigue acumulando fuerza. Si rompe la resistencia de la mañana, ¡nos vamos al siguiente nivel! 🤖🚀
🐸 $PEPE : El volumen de las memecoins está explotando. Es adrenalina pura y liquidez inmediata. ¡Ojo a los movimientos bruscos! 🌊💸
🟠 $BTC : Sigue atrapado en los $78,200. Pero recuerda: ¡el precio en Bs no se detiene! Mira los cashtags abajo para ver el valor real en tiempo real. 🧭💎🇻🇪
💡 El Consejo de CryptoVoz: No dejes tu capital durmiendo. Usa el mercado lateral para hacer Scalping en las monedas con volumen. ¡Ese es el secreto de los profesionales este fin de semana! 🛡️🧠
👇 HAZ CLIC en los cashtags ($BTC , $FET , $PEPE ) abajo para ver los gráficos y dinos: ¿En qué bando estás hoy, IA o Memes? 👇
#Cryptovoz #btc #fet #pepe #EarnMoney
$BTC FROM 60K BASE TO 80K BREAKOUT?
BTC showing strong recovery from the $60K support zone with bullish momentum building on higher timeframe. Price is pushing toward key resistance near $78K–$80K, and volume is gradually increasing. If this level breaks with confirmation, a continuation rally is likely.
Targets:
➡️ 80,000
➡️ 85,500
➡️ 92,000
#btc #CanTheDeFiIndustryRecoverQuicklyFromAaveExploit? #KelpDAOExploitFreeze
BTC showing strong recovery from the $60K support zone with bullish momentum building on higher timeframe. Price is pushing toward key resistance near $78K–$80K, and volume is gradually increasing. If this level breaks with confirmation, a continuation rally is likely.
Targets:
➡️ 80,000
➡️ 85,500
➡️ 92,000
#btc #CanTheDeFiIndustryRecoverQuicklyFromAaveExploit? #KelpDAOExploitFreeze
#btc Bitcoin upcoming week may stay volatile but slightly bullish after strong April recovery. BTC is trading around the upper $77K–$79K zone and testing the major $80K resistance area. A clean breakout above $80K could open moves toward $83K–$85K, while failure there may trigger pullback toward $75K support. Recent reports note improving sentiment, ETF inflows, and corporate buying support, which helps upside momentum.
感觉国内的封禁是一件有趣的是，大约五六年前，当时做了一篇地理知识科普的短视频。
有一个短视频问题里详细写了中日的岛礁问题，以及日本战后琉球岛归属问题。当时那个短视频疯狂在各大平台传播，两三天上千万的流量。甚至被拉到某些地缘政治问题专家群里，后来民间发生了对日不友好事件，然后那个视频流量肉眼可见的断崖式下降。
中日外交事件发生后，（外交的反击有开始围绕当年我那短视频里的内容进行反击，实际上短视频发出之前已经有专家私下讨论，当年还问我有什么建议）很多自媒体又开始拿出当年的那个视频反复发送，时间对于封禁而言真是一件有趣的事情。
所以我认为国内始终会有一天敲开稳定币的大门，目前美国稳定币存量独占鳌头，总有一天我们会可控的跟进，目前美元稳定币在全球市场占有率在98%以上，我们跟着下注20%～30%RMB的稳定币，并不是一件过分的事情。
$BTC $ETH $LDO #btc #eth #ldo
有一个短视频问题里详细写了中日的岛礁问题，以及日本战后琉球岛归属问题。当时那个短视频疯狂在各大平台传播，两三天上千万的流量。甚至被拉到某些地缘政治问题专家群里，后来民间发生了对日不友好事件，然后那个视频流量肉眼可见的断崖式下降。
中日外交事件发生后，（外交的反击有开始围绕当年我那短视频里的内容进行反击，实际上短视频发出之前已经有专家私下讨论，当年还问我有什么建议）很多自媒体又开始拿出当年的那个视频反复发送，时间对于封禁而言真是一件有趣的事情。
所以我认为国内始终会有一天敲开稳定币的大门，目前美国稳定币存量独占鳌头，总有一天我们会可控的跟进，目前美元稳定币在全球市场占有率在98%以上，我们跟着下注20%～30%RMB的稳定币，并不是一件过分的事情。
$BTC $ETH $LDO #btc #eth #ldo
Дно уже прошли ?
Ключевая ончейн-метрика по BTC, на которую я ориентируюсь - Bitcoin Percentage of Supply in Profit and Loss. Она показывает, какой процент от всех монет BTC в обращении находится в состоянии нереализованной прибыли на текущий момент.
Почему это важно ?
Метрика не даёт точек входа/выхода сама по себе, но показывает в какой фазе цикла находится рынок, что критически важно для управления позицией и риском.
На дне рынка происходит пересечение и мы его до сих пор не увидели !
#btc $BTC
Ключевая ончейн-метрика по BTC, на которую я ориентируюсь - Bitcoin Percentage of Supply in Profit and Loss. Она показывает, какой процент от всех монет BTC в обращении находится в состоянии нереализованной прибыли на текущий момент.
Почему это важно ?
Метрика не даёт точек входа/выхода сама по себе, но показывает в какой фазе цикла находится рынок, что критически важно для управления позицией и риском.
На дне рынка происходит пересечение и мы его до сих пор не увидели !
#btc $BTC
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