signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has historically made a Cycle Top within 8 - 11 months after the price made a convincing 1M candle closing above the previous All Time High (ATH) Resistance. At the same time, it has made a Cycle Bottom within 21 - 23 months after that same break-out occurred.
While that technical evidence is enough alone, here comes the 1M RSI to further confirm that model. Those same Cycle bottoms have occurred at or 1 month before the 1M RSI hit its Lower Lows trend-line (Fibonacci Channel bottom) as shown by the green circles.
Based on the above, an October 2026 Cycle bottom is very likely to occur and with the 1M MA100 (green trend-line) posing as the next Cycle Support, this can take place within a $45000 - 40000 Zone.
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is quite possibly having the last rally before it starts the 2nd and final Phase of the Bear Cycle. Technically this Super Cycles chart shows that once the price breaks below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), the Bear Cycle remains valid until it recovers it.
For now it is in effect and if we assume a -6% deceleration on the %rate of each Bear Cycle total decline from the previous, then the current one (2026) could bottom after a -72% drop, giving us $35000. We've shown in previous analyses why 45-40k is the most likely Buy Zone candidate and this is why it is a solid idea for long-term investors to start accumulating at $50000. Right now, we expect this 2nd and part of the Bear Cycle to deliver that final crash to breach 50k.
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Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is staging a strong rally this month, following the first green month (March) after 5 straight red. So is this the bottom? Not quite based on the Halving Cycle's Theory.
On this chart you can see that since the July 2016 Halving, every Bull Cycle Top was priced on the 0.382 Time Fibonacci level (red circle) between Halving dates. Similarly the Bear Cycle Bottoms were priced on the 0.618 Time Fib (green circle).
Right now the market found Support exactly on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) with the previous Bear Cycle bottoming just above the 1M MA100 (green trend-line). The last Cycle Top was priced exactly on the 0.382 Fib and the next 0.618 is on October 2026 based on the expected April 2028 Halving.
So based on this highly effective model, the current 2026 Bear Cycle should bottom this October, which is consistent with the majority of analyses and models we've used. Technically is should test the 1M MA100 as well, so (again consistent with our past analyses) this should be closer to $40000.
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