#HighestCPISince2022 Key Takeaways:

98.4% chance of April hold

Cuts pushed further out

Higher-for-longer reinforced

Summary:

Markets are now overwhelmingly pricing in a Federal Reserve pause, with a 98.4% probability of no rate change in April. Expectations for rate cuts have diminished significantly, reinforcing a higher-for-longer policy outlook. Even after the CPI surge, markets view inflation as largely energy-driven. This suggests limited near-term policy reaction from the Fed.