On April 13 at 10 AM Eastern Time, the Strait of Hormuz was fully sealed off. According to common sense reasoning, this should be a signal for another downturn in the crypto market—geopolitical crisis escalation, energy supply interruption risks, and rising global risk aversion sentiment. But the actual market trend is completely opposite.
Bitcoin rose instead of falling after the seal was enforced, reaching a peak of $76,063 yesterday, and stabilizing at $74,167 this morning. Ethereum also began to correct from a high of $2,417, and as of the time of writing, Bitcoin is quoted at $74,258, and Ethereum at $2,328. Accompanying this rebound, a total of $434 million was liquidated involving 180,000 traders; the market did not collapse due to the seal order, but instead completed a short squeeze with the blood of short sellers.
The martial law is not a sudden black swan; Trump announced the plan on Sunday, April 12, and the market digested it two days in advance: panic selling on Sunday, continued sorting on Monday, and by Tuesday when martial law officially took effect, the selling pressure had already dissipated. This is textbook-level 【sell the rumor, buy the news】; fear was priced in before the event occurred, and when the time really comes, it became a buying opportunity.
Bitcoin four-hour chart
From the Fibonacci perspective, the current price is right at the crucial 0.382 level, around 74100. After this round from 70455 to 75985, it has now pulled back to around 73873, repeatedly oscillating. It cannot rise to the 0.236 of 74680, nor can it break below the 0.5 of 73220. This is a typical strong horizontal consolidation, with the main force clearly accumulating and rotating here. As long as it doesn't break below the 0.5 position, the overall trend remains bullish.
Looking at the BOLL indicator, the middle band has flattened, and prices are repeatedly moving around the middle band. The BOLL band is starting to narrow, indicating that the market is entering a stage of direction selection. Prices sticking to the middle band indicate a temporary balance of bullish and bearish forces. Meanwhile, the lower band is continuously rising, which means that the support below is gradually strengthening. Therefore, this is not a signal to turn bearish but a buildup waiting for direction.
In terms of MACD, although a high-level dead cross has appeared, the strength of the bears has not increased. The MACD green histogram not only has not expanded but is actually contracting. What does this indicate? It indicates that the current decline is merely a correction, not the main downward segment. As long as there is no 'secondary volume surge downwards', the current MACD shape looks more like a washout action.
The KDJ indicator shows that both K and D values are turning upwards around 50, and the rise of the J value is particularly obvious. This is a standard short-term rebound initiation signal.
In summary from the master: it's not a drop now, but a consolidation after a rise.
Regarding the upcoming trend, the master's view is very clear. If it doesn't break below 73200 at the 0.5 level, continue to watch for a fluctuation upwards. Once it can stabilize at the 0.236 position of 74600, it is very likely to hit the previous high of 75900. If it breaks 75900, the next step is to see if it can create a new high.
Key positions are clearly marked for you: strong support at 73200, short-term support at 73800, resistance at 74600, and strong resistance at 75900.
Maintain the master's style in operation: as long as it doesn't break the 0.5 level on pullbacks, the bullish mindset remains unchanged. If it breaks 74600, you can follow the trend to buy more. If it unfortunately falls below 73200, then retreat in the short term and observe first.
Brothers, remember one thing: fluctuations are not risks; they are the main force screening the position holders. At this position now, it's not about judgment but patience. Those who can't hold on will easily be washed out.
Giving you a hundred percent accurate suggestion is not as good as giving you a correct mindset and trend. Teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish; it's better to learn to earn for a lifetime than to earn for a moment!
Writing time: (2026-04-15, 21:30)
(Written by the master on coins) This is to declare: online publication has delays, and the above suggestions are for reference only. Investment involves risks, and one must be cautious when entering the market!#美军封锁霍尔木兹海峡 $BTC
