OpenAI vs Anthropic, which IPO should you go for?
Most folks are defaulting to OpenAI because of its hype.
But after doing my own research, the answer is -- go for Anthropic.
Let me show you the data.
👇
2/7 — First off, timing.
If you can't get in on the IPO, chatting about it is pointless.
The market is currently betting that Anthropic could kick off its IPO process as early as Q4 this year.
OpenAI's internal timeline isn't unified; reports suggest the CFO is cautious, likely pushing it to 2027.
Polymarket gives Anthropic a 67.5% chance of going public first.
Being ahead in timing means a lot of capital will likely wait for Anthropic.
3/7 — Revenue Growth Rate.
Anthropic's run-rate by the end of 2025 is about $9 billion; by April 2026, it’s projected to surpass $30 billion, with external predictions suggesting it could hit $50 billion by the end of June.
OpenAI's ARR is around $24 billion, but recently it was reported that they haven't met their own targets.
One has upward expectations, while the other hasn't delivered on its goals yet.
4/7 — Valuation.
Many think OpenAI is more valuable, but the market has shifted.
In the latest funding round, rumors suggest Anthropic's valuation is hovering around $900 billion.
OpenAI's last reported valuation was $852 billion.
At least right now, market sentiment is leaning towards Anthropic.
5/7 — Three Issues with OpenAI.
Before you jump into the IPO, consider these:
① Musk's legal troubles aren't over yet.
② Reports indicate the CFO is cautious about the IPO timing.
③ They've committed to $600 billion in computing expenses, which brings heavy cash burn pressure.
These factors will directly impact IPO pricing and risk of falling below par.
6/7 — Anthropic's Strength.
Both Amazon and Google have invested, and at a strategic level.
Enterprise adoption has just surpassed OpenAI (34.4% vs 32.3%).
They’ve just secured a computing partnership with SpaceX.
In highly regulated sectors like finance and law, Claude has a clear advantage; many enterprises are already treating it as their default choice.
This isn't a company that's propped up by hype.
7/7 — Conclusion.
When it comes to IPOs, the three most critical factors are:
When is it launching, is the growth rate still there, and are there any major risks before the IPO?
Right now, it looks like Anthropic checks all these boxes better.
Save this for later.
Pass it on to those gearing up for AI IPOs.
☺️
(Investing comes with risks, DYOR)
Most folks are defaulting to OpenAI because of its hype.
But after doing my own research, the answer is -- go for Anthropic.
Let me show you the data.
👇
2/7 — First off, timing.
If you can't get in on the IPO, chatting about it is pointless.
The market is currently betting that Anthropic could kick off its IPO process as early as Q4 this year.
OpenAI's internal timeline isn't unified; reports suggest the CFO is cautious, likely pushing it to 2027.
Polymarket gives Anthropic a 67.5% chance of going public first.
Being ahead in timing means a lot of capital will likely wait for Anthropic.
3/7 — Revenue Growth Rate.
Anthropic's run-rate by the end of 2025 is about $9 billion; by April 2026, it’s projected to surpass $30 billion, with external predictions suggesting it could hit $50 billion by the end of June.
OpenAI's ARR is around $24 billion, but recently it was reported that they haven't met their own targets.
One has upward expectations, while the other hasn't delivered on its goals yet.
4/7 — Valuation.
Many think OpenAI is more valuable, but the market has shifted.
In the latest funding round, rumors suggest Anthropic's valuation is hovering around $900 billion.
OpenAI's last reported valuation was $852 billion.
At least right now, market sentiment is leaning towards Anthropic.
5/7 — Three Issues with OpenAI.
Before you jump into the IPO, consider these:
① Musk's legal troubles aren't over yet.
② Reports indicate the CFO is cautious about the IPO timing.
③ They've committed to $600 billion in computing expenses, which brings heavy cash burn pressure.
These factors will directly impact IPO pricing and risk of falling below par.
6/7 — Anthropic's Strength.
Both Amazon and Google have invested, and at a strategic level.
Enterprise adoption has just surpassed OpenAI (34.4% vs 32.3%).
They’ve just secured a computing partnership with SpaceX.
In highly regulated sectors like finance and law, Claude has a clear advantage; many enterprises are already treating it as their default choice.
This isn't a company that's propped up by hype.
7/7 — Conclusion.
When it comes to IPOs, the three most critical factors are:
When is it launching, is the growth rate still there, and are there any major risks before the IPO?
Right now, it looks like Anthropic checks all these boxes better.
Save this for later.
Pass it on to those gearing up for AI IPOs.
☺️
(Investing comes with risks, DYOR)