[Trading Journal] Contract Trading Practice Review Day 2
Today, BTC's drop has started to feel right.
Really.
I've been saying all along:
This rally doesn't feel like a reversal; it feels more like a correction from an oversold condition.
As a result, the market finally started showing signs of fatigue today.
The key point is:
Oil prices have plummeted,
And BTC hasn't rallied.
This is actually a very dangerous signal.
Because it indicates that:
The “geopolitical easing logic” that was previously supporting BTC has begun to fail.
The market no longer has enough funds to push it higher.
Moreover, the gap between BTC and US stocks is becoming increasingly obvious.
US stocks:
Hitting new highs every day.
BTC:
Every time it approaches resistance, it gets hammered down.
This kind of price action fundamentally shows that:
Strength and weakness have already emerged.
So if US stocks make a slight normal correction, and BTC approaches around 72k, I think the probability is actually quite high.
Therefore, my strategy is very simple and straightforward:
Any rebound is a short.
Especially at 78k and 79k.
I've been watching these two levels for several days.
Yesterday, when BTC made its second attempt at 78k, I just laughed.
Because this kind of double top probe is often a money-giving scenario.
First breakout fails,
Second attempt,
Probability is high that it's a bull trap.
Sure enough.
It started to drop right after.
So trading lately really shouldn't be too complicated.
The key is one thing:
Short near resistance,
Long near support.
The rest is up to discipline.
Many people lose money, not because they can't understand the market.
But rather:
They understand, but can't control their hands.
One statement from Trump,
One news from the Middle East,
And the market immediately goes haywire.
Those chasing pumps are the easiest to get wrecked.
Including later if US-Iran talks actually materialize, I think there might even be a last pump.
But during that time, I would actually get even more aggressive on the short side.
Because:
Good news getting priced in is the biggest bad news.
I’m still hanging shorts on oil.
After all, the biggest characteristic of Trump is:
You can never guess how he’ll paint the next candlestick.
Note:
Right now, don't ever mistake a “rebound” for a “reversal.”
A real crash often starts suddenly when everyone begins to feel optimistic again.
What strategies or hot altcoins do you have for today’s market? How's the profit? Share your experiences, and I'll verify them.
#BTC #Bitcoin #ETH #Crypto #Trump #USIranTalks #ContractTrading #Altcoins #Oil
Today, BTC's drop has started to feel right.
Really.
I've been saying all along:
This rally doesn't feel like a reversal; it feels more like a correction from an oversold condition.
As a result, the market finally started showing signs of fatigue today.
The key point is:
Oil prices have plummeted,
And BTC hasn't rallied.
This is actually a very dangerous signal.
Because it indicates that:
The “geopolitical easing logic” that was previously supporting BTC has begun to fail.
The market no longer has enough funds to push it higher.
Moreover, the gap between BTC and US stocks is becoming increasingly obvious.
US stocks:
Hitting new highs every day.
BTC:
Every time it approaches resistance, it gets hammered down.
This kind of price action fundamentally shows that:
Strength and weakness have already emerged.
So if US stocks make a slight normal correction, and BTC approaches around 72k, I think the probability is actually quite high.
Therefore, my strategy is very simple and straightforward:
Any rebound is a short.
Especially at 78k and 79k.
I've been watching these two levels for several days.
Yesterday, when BTC made its second attempt at 78k, I just laughed.
Because this kind of double top probe is often a money-giving scenario.
First breakout fails,
Second attempt,
Probability is high that it's a bull trap.
Sure enough.
It started to drop right after.
So trading lately really shouldn't be too complicated.
The key is one thing:
Short near resistance,
Long near support.
The rest is up to discipline.
Many people lose money, not because they can't understand the market.
But rather:
They understand, but can't control their hands.
One statement from Trump,
One news from the Middle East,
And the market immediately goes haywire.
Those chasing pumps are the easiest to get wrecked.
Including later if US-Iran talks actually materialize, I think there might even be a last pump.
But during that time, I would actually get even more aggressive on the short side.
Because:
Good news getting priced in is the biggest bad news.
I’m still hanging shorts on oil.
After all, the biggest characteristic of Trump is:
You can never guess how he’ll paint the next candlestick.
Note:
Right now, don't ever mistake a “rebound” for a “reversal.”
A real crash often starts suddenly when everyone begins to feel optimistic again.
What strategies or hot altcoins do you have for today’s market? How's the profit? Share your experiences, and I'll verify them.
#BTC #Bitcoin #ETH #Crypto #Trump #USIranTalks #ContractTrading #Altcoins #Oil