Bitcoin dropped to 61329 around 10 AM on June 4, continuing to lose ground from yesterday's high of 66000, marking a new low for the past 14 days, with a 24-hour drop of 7.11%. Ethereum followed suit, currently priced at 1743, down 7.28% in the last 24 hours, with the recent high of 2147 now just a distant memory.
In the past two days, multiple bearish news triggered a sell-off in the crypto market. The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net outflow of $519 million on June 2, with BlackRock being the main seller, signaling a clear institutional sell-off. Saylor sold 32 Bitcoins for the first time in four years; while the amount isn't significant, the symbolic meaning is huge, sparking a strong emotional reaction in the market.
Meanwhile, U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions are rising again, escalating tensions that push up oil prices and increase demand for safe-haven assets, further suppressing crypto and other risk assets. The probability of the Fed raising interest rates by 25 basis points before the end of the year has risen to 58%, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.69%, putting pressure on the valuation of risk assets.
Looking ahead, the key points to watch are whether the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield can peak and pull back, if the U.S.-Iran situation will cool off, and whether Bitcoin can secure strong support at the $61,000 level. If it breaks this level, the next technical support could see much lower positions.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart
From the 4-hour chart, Daxian feels the market is clearly in a bearish trend, with no signs of stabilization in the short term. Let’s take a closer look.
First, let’s talk about MACD. The DIFF and DEA have been in a death cross moving downward, with longer green bars indicating that the bears are still strong. Although prices have dropped significantly, there is no clear bullish divergence signal from MACD, meaning the downtrend isn't over and further declines are likely.
Looking at the KDJ, all three lines are low, with the J value around 20, indicating an oversold zone. A technical rebound could happen at any moment in the short term, but in a bearish market, being oversold doesn’t mean it’s bottoming out; it’s more likely just a rebound adjustment during the ongoing downtrend.
On the Bollinger Bands side, the opening has widened downward, and prices have been sticking to the lower band, showcasing a typical one-sided downtrend. The middle band has shifted down to around $68,000, posing significant short-term resistance. As long as prices don't reclaim the middle band, the bulls can't turn the tide.
Let’s analyze the Fibonacci retracement. This round dropped from a high of $78,049 to a low of $61,329. The 23.6% resistance is at $65,275, 38.2% resistance at $67,716, 50% resistance at $69,689, and 61.8% resistance at $71,662. The current price is around $62,436, which is very close to the 0% support at $61,329.
Daxian believes that around $61,300 is the last significant defense line. If $61,300 holds, there’s a chance for a short-term rebound to the $65,200 to $67,700 range. However, if $61,300 breaks, the bears will go on a rampage, and we might see the $60,000 whole number level, or even down to around $58,000.
Let’s clarify the operational strategy. Maintain a short position on rebounds below $65,200. $65,275 is the first resistance level. $67,716 is the divide between bulls and bears. $61,329 is the short-term lifeline. If it breaks $61,329, the bear target looks near $60,000.
Currently, all indicators on the 4-hour chart, including moving averages, MACD, and Bollinger Bands, are pointing to bearish sentiment. Daxian suggests that everyone should avoid rushing to catch the bottom at this stage; wait for MACD to show a bullish divergence or a volume spike reclaiming $65,275 before considering the possibility of a trend reversal. The overall rhythm is bearish, focusing on short positions during rebounds.
Instead of giving you a 100% foolproof suggestion, I’d rather provide you with the right mindset and trends. Teaching someone to fish is better than just giving them fish; the recommendation is to make a temporary profit, but learn the mindset to earn for a lifetime!
Drafted on: (2026-05-27, 23:10)
(Written by Daxian Says Coin) Disclaimer: Online publications may have delays; the above suggestions are for reference only. Investing carries risks, proceed with caution! #美伊冲突加密市场大规模清算 $BTC
