๐ Does Bitcoin really follow "mathematical" cycles?
By analyzing Bitcoin's movement on a logarithmic scale during halving cycles, we see a clear repetition in the overall structure of the movement:
Decline โ Accumulation โ Decreased volatility โ Bullish expansion.
But what appears to be a "stable mathematical model" is actually just behavioral similarities between cycles, not an inevitable equation.
๐ What does a 53.72% ratio really mean?
The emergence of ratios like 53.72% (if derived from a bottom/top or Fibonacci/time scale) does not indicate a hidden law, but often reflects:
Repetitive repricing areas after each liquidity cycle
Market interaction with the same psychological levels (fear zones/accumulation zones)
Similar liquidity distribution structures between previous cycles.
In other words:
Itโs a result of market behavior, not a "cause that controls the market."
๐ฅ Halving cycles
Historically, each halving leads to:
A decrease in new Bitcoin supply
The market shifting from selling pressure to a liquidity absorption phase
A delay in the bullish rise compared to the halving event itself
And often the next phase is:
Accumulation + psychological pressure + transfer of ownership from weak hands to strong hands.
๐ Where are we now?
After the 2024 halving, the market usually enters a phase of:
Building a new price base
Prolonged sideways volatility
Redistributing liquidity before the main trend.
Stay tuned
$BTC
By analyzing Bitcoin's movement on a logarithmic scale during halving cycles, we see a clear repetition in the overall structure of the movement:
Decline โ Accumulation โ Decreased volatility โ Bullish expansion.
But what appears to be a "stable mathematical model" is actually just behavioral similarities between cycles, not an inevitable equation.
๐ What does a 53.72% ratio really mean?
The emergence of ratios like 53.72% (if derived from a bottom/top or Fibonacci/time scale) does not indicate a hidden law, but often reflects:
Repetitive repricing areas after each liquidity cycle
Market interaction with the same psychological levels (fear zones/accumulation zones)
Similar liquidity distribution structures between previous cycles.
In other words:
Itโs a result of market behavior, not a "cause that controls the market."
๐ฅ Halving cycles
Historically, each halving leads to:
A decrease in new Bitcoin supply
The market shifting from selling pressure to a liquidity absorption phase
A delay in the bullish rise compared to the halving event itself
And often the next phase is:
Accumulation + psychological pressure + transfer of ownership from weak hands to strong hands.
๐ Where are we now?
After the 2024 halving, the market usually enters a phase of:
Building a new price base
Prolonged sideways volatility
Redistributing liquidity before the main trend.
Stay tuned
$BTC