๐ 2025: Cash Flow Pivot โ Gold Shines, Bitcoin Faces Challenges
๐ The 2025 cycle witnesses a clear divergence between asset classes. Macroeconomic concerns and tariff risks from Mr. Trump prioritize traditional assets, especially gold, while risk assets like Bitcoin face pressure.
๐ Quick comparison:
๐ก Gold (XAU): +12% Q4 | +65% over 12 months
๐ Bitcoin (BTC): โ23% Q4 | โ6.3% over 12 months
โก๏ธ The BTC/XAU ratio has returned to pre-election levels: buying 1 BTC now only requires half the amount of gold compared to before.
๐ฏ๐ต Japan & BOJ โ an important piece:
Japan's economy is under pressure (high public debt, inflation ~3%).
Gold reserves increased by 60% YoY, reaching $120 billion in 2025.
The possibility of BOJ raising interest rates means capital flows continue to favor gold, creating pressure to rotate away from BTC.
๐ฎ Implications for BTC:
The question is not just whether BTC is weakening, but whether gold is too strong.
The 2025 cycle places macroeconomics & capital flows at the center; BTC stands at a pivotal moment as monetary policy changes.
๐คฃ This article is to update perspectives & read for fun. It is not investment adviceโdon't sell all your BTC just because gold is shiny, and don't ignore macroeconomics just because BTC is volatile ๐
#Bitcoin #Gold #Macro #MarketRotation #NotFinancialadvice
๐ The 2025 cycle witnesses a clear divergence between asset classes. Macroeconomic concerns and tariff risks from Mr. Trump prioritize traditional assets, especially gold, while risk assets like Bitcoin face pressure.
๐ Quick comparison:
๐ก Gold (XAU): +12% Q4 | +65% over 12 months
๐ Bitcoin (BTC): โ23% Q4 | โ6.3% over 12 months
โก๏ธ The BTC/XAU ratio has returned to pre-election levels: buying 1 BTC now only requires half the amount of gold compared to before.
๐ฏ๐ต Japan & BOJ โ an important piece:
Japan's economy is under pressure (high public debt, inflation ~3%).
Gold reserves increased by 60% YoY, reaching $120 billion in 2025.
The possibility of BOJ raising interest rates means capital flows continue to favor gold, creating pressure to rotate away from BTC.
๐ฎ Implications for BTC:
The question is not just whether BTC is weakening, but whether gold is too strong.
The 2025 cycle places macroeconomics & capital flows at the center; BTC stands at a pivotal moment as monetary policy changes.
๐คฃ This article is to update perspectives & read for fun. It is not investment adviceโdon't sell all your BTC just because gold is shiny, and don't ignore macroeconomics just because BTC is volatile ๐
#Bitcoin #Gold #Macro #MarketRotation #NotFinancialadvice