#美联储利率决议
#美股七巨头财报
Meeting time: Washington/Eastern Time from January 27, 2026 (Tuesday) to January 28, 2026 (Wednesday).
Decision time: January 28, 2026 (Wednesday) at 14:00.
The chairman Powell will hold a few key press conferences half an hour after the decision is announced (his term will end in May this year).
Interest rate decision conclusion: Highly likely to 'remain unchanged'
Market consensus: The market currently generally expects the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts, maintaining the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%.
Probability distribution: According to the latest forecast, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is as high as 98.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is less than 1%.
Core reasons: * Inflation stickiness: The PCE core inflation rate remains around 2.8%, not reaching the 2% target.
Employment balance: The unemployment rate has fallen to 4.4%. Although hiring is weak, there are no large-scale layoffs, and the Federal Reserve believes it is currently in the 'neutral good ballpark'.
Three major market 'black swan' disturbances
On the eve of the interest rate decision, due to a surge in uncertainty, the market has shown severe volatility:
Gold safe-haven frenzy: Spot gold broke through $5,100/oz historically on January 26. This reflects the market's extreme concern over 'tariff threats' and 'government shutdown' risks.
Dollar plummets: The dollar index fell about 2% in a single week (currently around 96.96), and investors are increasing their holdings of physical assets to hedge risks.
Political noise: The market is highly focused on Trump's upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve chair nomination, which is considered more destructive than the interest rate decision itself.
#美股七巨头财报
Meeting time: Washington/Eastern Time from January 27, 2026 (Tuesday) to January 28, 2026 (Wednesday).
Decision time: January 28, 2026 (Wednesday) at 14:00.
The chairman Powell will hold a few key press conferences half an hour after the decision is announced (his term will end in May this year).
Interest rate decision conclusion: Highly likely to 'remain unchanged'
Market consensus: The market currently generally expects the Federal Reserve to pause rate cuts, maintaining the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75%.
Probability distribution: According to the latest forecast, the probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged is as high as 98.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is less than 1%.
Core reasons: * Inflation stickiness: The PCE core inflation rate remains around 2.8%, not reaching the 2% target.
Employment balance: The unemployment rate has fallen to 4.4%. Although hiring is weak, there are no large-scale layoffs, and the Federal Reserve believes it is currently in the 'neutral good ballpark'.
Three major market 'black swan' disturbances
On the eve of the interest rate decision, due to a surge in uncertainty, the market has shown severe volatility:
Gold safe-haven frenzy: Spot gold broke through $5,100/oz historically on January 26. This reflects the market's extreme concern over 'tariff threats' and 'government shutdown' risks.
Dollar plummets: The dollar index fell about 2% in a single week (currently around 96.96), and investors are increasing their holdings of physical assets to hedge risks.
Political noise: The market is highly focused on Trump's upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve chair nomination, which is considered more destructive than the interest rate decision itself.