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Bitcoin has the potential to rise towards $92,630 if it manages to stay above the 200-week moving average, while the risk of a new correction exceeding 10% on the Nasdaq stands out.
Bitcoin (BTC) attracted investor attention by holding above the $60,000 level over the weekend. The BTC price rose 6.5% from its local low of around $59,100, reaching as high as $62,950 intraday on Sunday. This recovery occurred at a time when the Nasdaq Composite index experienced a drop of more than 4% on Friday, recording its sharpest daily loss since April 2025.
Some market analysts believe that if weakness on the Nasdaq continues, the likelihood of venture capital returning to Bitcoin increases. Technical indicators, on the other hand, point to a recovery scenario that could push Bitcoin above $90,000 if it maintains its critical long-term support levels.
200-Week Average Stands Out for Bitcoin
According to experienced market analyst Filbfilb's assessment on June 7th, Bitcoin continues to remain above the 200-week simple moving average (SMA) at approximately $61,880.
This level previously helped create significant bottoms for Bitcoin in 2015, 2018, and 2020. According to the analyst, a brief drop below $60,000 could be considered a "shake-up" if the price remains above long-term support.
In this scenario, the next important technical target for investors is the 50-week moving average, currently at around $92,630. It is noted that if Bitcoin maintains its current support zone, the price has the potential to move towards this level.
Nasdaq Technical Indicators Show New Downside Risk
One of the key factors behind the expected recovery in Bitcoin is the technical outlook for the Nasdaq.
The weekly relative strength index (RSI) of the Nasdaq Composite index has fallen from approximately 74.75 to 62.46. According to historical data, since 2021, every time the weekly RSI indicator has broken below the overbought region of 70, the Nasdaq has retreated to its 20-week moving average.
Currently, the average for the index is around 22,905 points. If a similar movement repeats, it is estimated that the Nasdaq could fall by approximately 10.75% from its current levels. This scenario raises the possibility of a new correction sometime in June or by July.
Market participants are closely watching whether investors will shift to alternative risk assets if this weakness in technology stocks continues.
BTC/Nasdaq Ratio at Historical Lows
The BTC/IXIC ratio, which measures Bitcoin's performance against the Nasdaq, is also giving noteworthy signals.
According to daily RSI data, this ratio has fallen to its lowest oversold region in history. On Saturday, the RSI value dropped to 14.70. This level stands out as the lowest value ever recorded, while the previous record was 14.88 seen in February.
Following a similar signal in February, the Bitcoin price showed a recovery of over 30%. Therefore, some market observers believe that the current outlook may be a harbinger of a new recovery process for Bitcoin.
The oversold appearance in the BTC/IXIC ratio is interpreted as a sign that Bitcoin has become relatively cheap compared to the Nasdaq and that buyers are starting to re-enter the market.
Technical indicators point to the continuation of upward potential if Bitcoin maintains its long-term support levels, while how a possible correction on the Nasdaq will affect market dynamics will be closely monitored in the coming weeks. In particular, whether BTC can remain above its 200-week moving average and whether Nasdaq will retreat towards its 20-week average are among the key indicators for both markets.
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Bitcoin fell to the $62,000 level due to weakening risk appetite focused on AI, spot ETF outflows, and institutional selling.
Bitcoin dropped as low as $62,715 in Asian trading on June 5th, losing 14.5% on a weekly basis. The decline in the cryptocurrency market accelerated following weaker-than-expected results for Broadcom's AI chips, fueling a weakening global risk appetite. Ongoing outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs and Strategy's Bitcoin sale also contributed to the market pressure.
The sell-off in crypto assets was not limited to digital assets. Losses in technology stocks, Asian markets, and some regional currencies contributed to a picture of investors moving away from risky assets. Markets are now focused on the upcoming US non-farm payrolls data.
Details of the main development
The weakening of the global investment narrative, centered around artificial intelligence, triggered sharp sell-offs in the cryptocurrency market. Broadcom's quarterly AI chip outlook failing to meet market expectations halted months of rallying semiconductor stocks.
In addition to Bitcoin, Ethereum was also affected by the selling pressure. ETH fell 4.8% to $1,696, bringing its weekly loss to over 15%. SOL fell 5.4% to $66.51, reaching a loss of 18.5% in the last seven days.
A similar picture emerged in traditional markets. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.9%, extending the index's decline for a third day. South Korea's KOSPI, one of the strongest performing major indices this year, fell 4.7%, while shares of chipmaker SK Hynix lost 8%. The MSCI Asia-Pacific stock index also declined 1.4%.
Risk aversion was also evident in foreign exchange markets. The South Korean won fell to its lowest levels since 2009, while the Indonesian rupiah traded near its all-time lows against the dollar. The Indian rupee, however, diverged from the regional trend following new measures by the Reserve Bank of India to support capital inflows.
Data and additional findings
HYPE, one of the most notable tokens in the crypto market recently, also couldn't escape the sell-off. One of the few major tokens to remain in positive territory on a weekly basis, HYPE fell by 14.8% to $62.14. Thus, it lost much of its recent performance advantage, and its weekly gain dropped to approximately 1.5%.
On the other hand, signs of weakening are also emerging in Bitcoin's structural demand. Spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the US have recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days since mid-May. Approximately $4.4 billion has flowed out of ETFs during this period.
On the institutional side, Strategy stands out. The company announced that it sold Bitcoin for the first time since 2022 to finance its preferred stock dividend obligations. Strategy sold 32 BTC in this context. When ETF outflows and institutional sales are considered together, it appears that the key demand sources supporting Bitcoin over the past 18 months are weakening.
Technical indicators are also being closely monitored in the market. The Bitcoin price has reached its 200-week simple moving average again after approximately three years. According to TradingView data, this level is around $61,626. This indicator acted as a strong resistance zone during the 2022 bear market.
Analyst CollinTalksCrypto considers Bitcoin's return to this level a significant turning point, noting that while a short-term price reaction is possible, making a definitive prediction about the direction is difficult.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin's daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) fell to 17.35. This value is among the lowest levels the indicator has seen since 2020. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe stated that the oversold appearance in the RSI and the return to the 200-week moving average are data points that should be closely monitored by the market.
Impact on the Sector
The current situation once again reveals the sensitivity of the crypto market to changes in global risk appetite. Weakening in AI-related stocks, sell-offs in the technology sector, and declines in Asian markets have caused crypto assets to move in a similar direction.
At the same time, the ongoing outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs and Strategy's sale have brought the impact of developments on institutional demand on the market back to the forefront. Therefore, investors are closely monitoring not only developments specific to the cryptocurrency market, but also macroeconomic data and global capital flows.
The next major agenda item for the markets will be the US non-farm payrolls data. This data is expected to influence expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy and be decisive for both technology stocks and crypto assets. Bitcoin, meanwhile, continues to be closely watched in the short term, with its price behavior hovering around the 200-week moving average.
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According to Jim Ferraioli, a director at Charles Schwab, Bitcoin's recent performance is due more to investors shifting towards AI and IPO themes than to Michael Saylor's sell-off.
While Bitcoin has lost more than 16% of its value in the last month, US stock markets have reached new highs. Jim Ferraioli, Director of Digital Assets Research and Strategy at Charles Schwab, stated that the main reason for this divergence is not weakening institutional demand or Michael Saylor's sell-off, but rather Bitcoin losing its role as the market's main "momentum trader." According to Ferraioli, investor interest has recently shifted to alternative areas such as AI companies, commodity markets, and expectations of large IPOs.
Bitcoin's recent performance has fallen short of expectations despite the approval of spot ETFs, billions of dollars in institutional inflows, and increased regulatory clarity in the US. Ferraioli noted that despite these positive developments, investors' focus on new opportunities is increasing pressure on Bitcoin.
Details of the main development
According to Charles Schwab, the main problem facing Bitcoin is not negative news flow, but the diversion of investor capital to different themes.
Ferrairi stated that Bitcoin has been in a bear market since October and that the recent weakness is a result of broader investor behavior. According to him, cryptocurrency investors historically follow the strongest momentum story in the market rather than fundamental valuation criteria.
While in past cycles crypto markets stood out as one of the most attractive speculative areas for investors, recently this role has largely been taken over by the artificial intelligence sector. Companies connected to AI infrastructure, data centers, and advanced computing technologies are exhibiting strong performance, and potential IPOs of companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have begun to attract investor interest.
In addition, expectations surrounding a potential IPO of Elon Musk's SpaceX company are also drawing attention in the markets. The report states that SpaceX's IPO could boost the company's valuation to $1.8 trillion and, along with other major IPOs, could inject over $200 billion in liquidity from the market.
Data and additional findings
Ferraioli notes that the shift in investor behavior is seen not only in traditional markets but also in the crypto ecosystem.
In particular, on decentralized trading platforms like Hyperliquid (HYPE), investors can take positions through synthetic contracts linked to pre-IPO private company shares. This is causing capital that previously flowed into Bitcoin or other digital assets to shift to different investment stories.
Ferraioli also argued that the impact of Strategy's recent sale of 32 BTC on the market was exaggerated. While the sale by Michael Saylor, a longtime Bitcoin advocate, attracted attention, he stated it shouldn't be seen as the primary cause of the current downtrend.
Another piece of data highlighted in the article was BlackRock's $1.26 billion block sale of the IBIT Bitcoin ETF on May 26th. NYDIG Research interpreted this transaction as an investor's desire to quickly exit their Bitcoin position. The research firm noted that the transaction did not stem from the unraveling of a common hedge fund strategy.
According to Ferraioli, many ETF investors have recouped their losses after the sharp price movements of the past year and are using current levels to exit positions rather than make new purchases.
Impact on the Sector
The data shows that despite the increase in institutional adoption of Bitcoin, it is still significantly influenced by individual investor behavior.
Ferrarioli stated that although Bitcoin ETFs have expanded reach, the market is largely driven by retail investors. This group of investors generally trades by following trends rather than long-term valuation models. Therefore, regulatory developments or new financial products alone may not be sufficient to create strong demand.
The crypto sector is also following the Clarity Act regulation in the US, which is expected to create a clearer framework for digital assets. Ferraioli stated that regulatory clarity could support adoption in the long term, but it is not guaranteed to change current investor trends in the short term.
Furthermore, the fact that summer months are historically weaker periods for Bitcoin can contribute to decreased trading volumes and a shift in investor interest to other areas.
According to Charles Schwab's assessment, the key factor determining Bitcoin's current performance is not Michael Saylor's sell-off or regulatory developments, but rather investors directing their capital to different growth and speculation themes. While institutional adoption and regulatory progress continue, the areas to which investor interest shifts remain the determining factor in the short-term direction of the market.
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