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奔哥观天下
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奔哥观天下

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Occasional Trader
4.8 Years
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121 Followers
85 Liked
Posts
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There are too many monsters this year. #mxy $MYX
There are too many monsters this year. #mxy $MYX
Article
Don't just focus on the Federal Reserve; the real crisis trigger is actually Japan!Article by: Bitben Even if you don't trade stocks, don't invest in funds, and don't care about international news, you should have felt something was off in the past few days. The purchasing agents in the circle of friends are lamenting that the yen exchange rate has risen too sharply, the bosses in foreign trade are complaining that orders have suddenly become difficult to negotiate, and even the old man downstairs is discussing why the stock market in the United States has recently dropped like crazy. The source of all this points to Japan. Only because the Bank of Japan took an action: raising interest rates. Many people want to scroll away as soon as they hear the two words 'interest rate hike', thinking it's all boring economic jargon. Don't rush, I'll explain this in plain language. Once you finish reading, you'll understand why this could be the biggest black swan globally by the end of 2025.

Don't just focus on the Federal Reserve; the real crisis trigger is actually Japan!

Article by: Bitben
Even if you don't trade stocks, don't invest in funds, and don't care about international news, you should have felt something was off in the past few days.
The purchasing agents in the circle of friends are lamenting that the yen exchange rate has risen too sharply, the bosses in foreign trade are complaining that orders have suddenly become difficult to negotiate, and even the old man downstairs is discussing why the stock market in the United States has recently dropped like crazy.
The source of all this points to Japan.
Only because the Bank of Japan took an action: raising interest rates.
Many people want to scroll away as soon as they hear the two words 'interest rate hike', thinking it's all boring economic jargon. Don't rush, I'll explain this in plain language. Once you finish reading, you'll understand why this could be the biggest black swan globally by the end of 2025.
Article
The patriarch of technical analysis? What is Simons' computer doing while retail investors draw trend lines?Written by: Bit奔, copyright infringement will be pursued. The purpose of writing this article is to raise the cognitive level of beginners. First, the conclusion: technical analysis is not only a dead end for ordinary retail investors, but also a carefully packaged grave. As for James Simons and his prize-winning fund, it has nothing to do with ordinary retail investors. Many people light up when mentioning Simons, thinking of him as the patriarch of technical analysis. Since the prize-winning fund can achieve terrifying returns for thirty years through pure mathematical models and algorithmic trading, it proves that technical analysis is feasible, showing that one can make big money by focusing solely on price fluctuations without looking at fundamentals or financial reports.

The patriarch of technical analysis? What is Simons' computer doing while retail investors draw trend lines?

Written by: Bit奔, copyright infringement will be pursued.
The purpose of writing this article is to raise the cognitive level of beginners.
First, the conclusion: technical analysis is not only a dead end for ordinary retail investors, but also a carefully packaged grave.
As for James Simons and his prize-winning fund, it has nothing to do with ordinary retail investors.
Many people light up when mentioning Simons, thinking of him as the patriarch of technical analysis.
Since the prize-winning fund can achieve terrifying returns for thirty years through pure mathematical models and algorithmic trading, it proves that technical analysis is feasible, showing that one can make big money by focusing solely on price fluctuations without looking at fundamentals or financial reports.
Article
Lost 80%, not selling, can I break even?Written by/Bit奔, copyright infringement will be pursued Coming to ask if you can break even after losing 80% is like a patient entering the ICU with all organs failing, only to ask the doctor if they can run a marathon. As long as I don't sell, this is just a paper loss; as long as there's enough time, it will eventually go back up one day? A drop of 80% means the risk has been fully released, is it time for a rebound? This is simply a primary school math problem. If your principal is 1 million and you lose 50% becoming 500,000, how much do you need to increase to break even? Do you need to increase by 50%? No, you need to increase by 100%. This is already very difficult.

Lost 80%, not selling, can I break even?

Written by/Bit奔, copyright infringement will be pursued
Coming to ask if you can break even after losing 80% is like a patient entering the ICU with all organs failing, only to ask the doctor if they can run a marathon.
As long as I don't sell, this is just a paper loss; as long as there's enough time, it will eventually go back up one day?
A drop of 80% means the risk has been fully released, is it time for a rebound?
This is simply a primary school math problem.
If your principal is 1 million and you lose 50% becoming 500,000, how much do you need to increase to break even?
Do you need to increase by 50%?
No, you need to increase by 100%.
This is already very difficult.
Article
My Insights in 2025: Talking About the Precursors of Losses!That moment when you feel like you are also a stock god and finally understand the way, is actually a precursor to losses, and often leads to significant losses. Many people have had this experience, watching their account balance curve fluctuate like a roller coaster, their heart racing with the ups and downs of the K-line. This is fundamentally not a technical issue; it is completely a test of human nature. A mature trading strategy not only includes entry and exit points but also involves calculating the psychological endurance of the operator. If a strategy during its operation makes you feel the urge to manually close your position or makes you paranoid, then this strategy is not suitable for you.

My Insights in 2025: Talking About the Precursors of Losses!

That moment when you feel like you are also a stock god and finally understand the way, is actually a precursor to losses, and often leads to significant losses.
Many people have had this experience, watching their account balance curve fluctuate like a roller coaster, their heart racing with the ups and downs of the K-line.
This is fundamentally not a technical issue; it is completely a test of human nature.
A mature trading strategy not only includes entry and exit points but also involves calculating the psychological endurance of the operator.
If a strategy during its operation makes you feel the urge to manually close your position or makes you paranoid, then this strategy is not suitable for you.
Article
Why don't rising good news lead to rises and falling bad news lead to falls? The core signal of bull-bear conversion in 2025 is hidden here!Text/Bit transfer, theft must be pursued Today, a brother called 'Heavenly World' asked me in the background. What are the critical conditions for bull-bear conversion? Or what is the standard of judgment? Next, I want to say, I suggest this brother watch it a few more times. We all actually understand a truth: if it rises too much, it will fall, and if it falls too much, it will rise, but this statement is worthless. What is truly valuable is knowing when it tells you through what kind of signal that this train is about to turn around. This is the so-called bull-bear conversion. Now it is 2025-11-29 14:58:16, everyone has a sense of what the global situation is like, in this chaotic background, judging the wind direction is not only for making money but also for survival.

Why don't rising good news lead to rises and falling bad news lead to falls? The core signal of bull-bear conversion in 2025 is hidden here!

Text/Bit transfer, theft must be pursued
Today, a brother called 'Heavenly World' asked me in the background.
What are the critical conditions for bull-bear conversion?
Or what is the standard of judgment?
Next, I want to say, I suggest this brother watch it a few more times.
We all actually understand a truth: if it rises too much, it will fall, and if it falls too much, it will rise, but this statement is worthless.
What is truly valuable is knowing when it tells you through what kind of signal that this train is about to turn around.
This is the so-called bull-bear conversion.
Now it is 2025-11-29 14:58:16, everyone has a sense of what the global situation is like, in this chaotic background, judging the wind direction is not only for making money but also for survival.
Article
Sun Yuchen's Survival Tactics in a Bear Market: What Did He Do from $126,000 to $81,000?Written by/Bitcoin Rush, theft will be investigated. 2025-11-27 13:57:22 Today it finally rebounded! When video chatting with a friend, I heard his cheerful laughter again. Very happy, now ready to spend some time reviewing the operations of some big shots in the industry. There is a type of person in this world who are like sharks in the deep sea; regardless of whether the surface is stormy or calm, they follow only one logic, which is the logic of bloodshed. The topic we are going to discuss today may be much more brutal and much more real than you can imagine. In just the past month, Bitcoin has given us a thrilling roller coaster show, with the price dropping from a high of $126,000 like a kite with a broken string, plummeting to $81,000.

Sun Yuchen's Survival Tactics in a Bear Market: What Did He Do from $126,000 to $81,000?

Written by/Bitcoin Rush, theft will be investigated.
2025-11-27 13:57:22
Today it finally rebounded! When video chatting with a friend, I heard his cheerful laughter again.
Very happy, now ready to spend some time reviewing the operations of some big shots in the industry.
There is a type of person in this world who are like sharks in the deep sea; regardless of whether the surface is stormy or calm, they follow only one logic, which is the logic of bloodshed.
The topic we are going to discuss today may be much more brutal and much more real than you can imagine.
In just the past month, Bitcoin has given us a thrilling roller coaster show, with the price dropping from a high of $126,000 like a kite with a broken string, plummeting to $81,000.
Article
2026 new opportunities: RWA + professional exchanges + AI robots, where are the opportunities?Written by: Bit Ben, theft will be pursued. The crypto market has evaporated over $1 trillion in a month and a half, with 400,000 people liquidating nearly $2 billion, and retail investors are all cutting losses to exit. But just yesterday, Coinbase Ventures just threw out the investment directional indicator for 2026, highlighting four key areas: RWA perpetual contracts, professional trading terminals, next-generation DeFi, and AI robots. On one side is panic selling, and on the other side are giants placing precise bets. What opportunities are hidden behind this wave of signals? 2026 new opportunities: RWA + professional exchanges + AI robots, where are the opportunities? Someone has pooled hundreds of thousands to enter the market, and now their account has shrunk to almost half, lacking even the courage to flip pages to check their balance.

2026 new opportunities: RWA + professional exchanges + AI robots, where are the opportunities?

Written by: Bit Ben, theft will be pursued.
The crypto market has evaporated over $1 trillion in a month and a half, with 400,000 people liquidating nearly $2 billion, and retail investors are all cutting losses to exit.
But just yesterday, Coinbase Ventures just threw out the investment directional indicator for 2026, highlighting four key areas: RWA perpetual contracts, professional trading terminals, next-generation DeFi, and AI robots.
On one side is panic selling, and on the other side are giants placing precise bets. What opportunities are hidden behind this wave of signals?
2026 new opportunities: RWA + professional exchanges + AI robots, where are the opportunities?
Someone has pooled hundreds of thousands to enter the market, and now their account has shrunk to almost half, lacking even the courage to flip pages to check their balance.
Article
Why can't many people survive a bear market?In the cryptocurrency world, there is fundamentally no wealth creation. Essentially, it's also a transfer of wealth. Those big shots who made tens or hundreds of times their investment, every penny in their pockets comes from countless small investors who couldn't hold on and lost money. Many people always think that a bear market is just a decline; Bitcoin dropped from 126,000 to 88,000, and I just need to hold on and play dead, right? This idea is too naive. A real bear market, it's a slow death, a dull knife cutting flesh. It dropped by half; you think it's an opportunity and add to your position. It dropped by half again; you grit your teeth, feel like it's at the bottom, and add to your position.

Why can't many people survive a bear market?

In the cryptocurrency world, there is fundamentally no wealth creation.
Essentially, it's also a transfer of wealth.
Those big shots who made tens or hundreds of times their investment, every penny in their pockets comes from countless small investors who couldn't hold on and lost money.
Many people always think that a bear market is just a decline; Bitcoin dropped from 126,000 to 88,000, and I just need to hold on and play dead, right?
This idea is too naive.
A real bear market, it's a slow death, a dull knife cutting flesh.
It dropped by half; you think it's an opportunity and add to your position.
It dropped by half again; you grit your teeth, feel like it's at the bottom, and add to your position.
Does it affect him to rise from 3 yuan to 30,000 yuan?
Does it affect him to rise from 3 yuan to 30,000 yuan?
如花如梦
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Bullish
The cryptocurrency space is too restless now, and there are not many people who know what this symbol represents!!! $ATOM $LPT
How to say?
How to say?
如花如梦
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Bullish
The cryptocurrency space is too restless now, and there are not many people who know what this symbol represents!!! $ATOM $LPT
Too one-sided.
Too one-sided.
如花如梦
·
--
Bullish
The cryptocurrency space is too restless now, and there are not many people who know what this symbol represents!!! $ATOM $LPT
Article
484 days have passed, has Trump's Bitcoin reserve commitment been fulfilled?Text/Bitcoin Rush, Theft Must Be Pursued Trump's first formal commitment to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve was on July 28, 2024, at the Bitcoin 2024 conference held in Nashville, Tennessee. In this speech, Trump explicitly stated: "If I can return to the White House, I will classify Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for the United States and ensure that the government retains 100% of the Bitcoin it owns, never to sell it." He also added: "This afternoon, I will outline my plan to ensure that America becomes the cryptocurrency capital of the world and a Bitcoin superpower, and we will get it done."

484 days have passed, has Trump's Bitcoin reserve commitment been fulfilled?

Text/Bitcoin Rush, Theft Must Be Pursued
Trump's first formal commitment to establish a Bitcoin strategic reserve was on July 28, 2024, at the Bitcoin 2024 conference held in Nashville, Tennessee.
In this speech, Trump explicitly stated: "If I can return to the White House, I will classify Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset for the United States and ensure that the government retains 100% of the Bitcoin it owns, never to sell it."
He also added: "This afternoon, I will outline my plan to ensure that America becomes the cryptocurrency capital of the world and a Bitcoin superpower, and we will get it done."
Article
After Harvard University chased the rise, Bitcoin fell by 30%. Will there be a chase and kill next?Written by Bitben, theft will be pursued. According to the SEC Form 13F disclosed in mid-November 2025, Harvard University's endowment fund increased its holdings in the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT) by 257% in the third quarter of 2025, rising from 1.9 million shares in the second quarter to 6.8136 million shares, with a market value of $443 million. This position accounts for 20.97% of the total U.S. listed equity holdings reported by Harvard, surpassing tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and NVIDIA, and even exceeding the gold ETF (SPDR Gold Shares ETF, GLD), becoming the largest holding of the Harvard endowment fund.

After Harvard University chased the rise, Bitcoin fell by 30%. Will there be a chase and kill next?

Written by Bitben, theft will be pursued.
According to the SEC Form 13F disclosed in mid-November 2025, Harvard University's endowment fund increased its holdings in the BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust (iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT) by 257% in the third quarter of 2025, rising from 1.9 million shares in the second quarter to 6.8136 million shares, with a market value of $443 million.
This position accounts for 20.97% of the total U.S. listed equity holdings reported by Harvard, surpassing tech giants like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and NVIDIA, and even exceeding the gold ETF (SPDR Gold Shares ETF, GLD), becoming the largest holding of the Harvard endowment fund.
Article
Can interest rate cuts save Bitcoin? Unveiling the global liquidity black hole of 2025: Where has the money gone?Text by: Bitcoin Runner, theft will be pursued This round of Bitcoin's crash has been more severe than anyone else's, plummeting directly from last month's high of $126,000 to around $83,000 today, a drop of over $40,000. Many people's fortunes have turned to nothing overnight. Everyone is puzzled. The Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates three times this year, which is commonly referred to as quantitative easing. Logically, with more money, it should flow into assets. But why hasn't the cryptocurrency market risen? Instead, it seems to have been drained like blood. This matter is not that simple. Behind this is actually the unprecedented internal injury of American financial hegemony. As ordinary investors, if we don't see this situation clearly, we can only be harvested like leeks.

Can interest rate cuts save Bitcoin? Unveiling the global liquidity black hole of 2025: Where has the money gone?

Text by: Bitcoin Runner, theft will be pursued
This round of Bitcoin's crash has been more severe than anyone else's, plummeting directly from last month's high of $126,000 to around $83,000 today, a drop of over $40,000. Many people's fortunes have turned to nothing overnight.
Everyone is puzzled. The Federal Reserve has already cut interest rates three times this year, which is commonly referred to as quantitative easing. Logically, with more money, it should flow into assets. But why hasn't the cryptocurrency market risen? Instead, it seems to have been drained like blood.
This matter is not that simple. Behind this is actually the unprecedented internal injury of American financial hegemony. As ordinary investors, if we don't see this situation clearly, we can only be harvested like leeks.
Article
Is V's technical faith worth 2.6 trillion? Does the Ethereum Foundation's continuous selling count as robbery?Written by: Bit Ben, theft will be pursued. Many people looked at today's slightly red candlestick in the market, thinking the ambulance had finally arrived, but reality is often much colder than we imagine. Today is November 20th, and just now, BTC finally stopped the nine consecutive reds that had kept countless people awake at night, barely bouncing up a little bit. But this does not mean the danger is lifted. On the contrary, Wall Street's sickle may be brewing its final blow, and the weakest patient lying on the operating table is precisely the former king of all chains, Ethereum. Speaking of the past 9 days, for many, it has been a long and torturous experience.

Is V's technical faith worth 2.6 trillion? Does the Ethereum Foundation's continuous selling count as robbery?

Written by: Bit Ben, theft will be pursued.
Many people looked at today's slightly red candlestick in the market, thinking the ambulance had finally arrived, but reality is often much colder than we imagine.
Today is November 20th, and just now, BTC finally stopped the nine consecutive reds that had kept countless people awake at night, barely bouncing up a little bit.
But this does not mean the danger is lifted. On the contrary, Wall Street's sickle may be brewing its final blow, and the weakest patient lying on the operating table is precisely the former king of all chains, Ethereum.
Speaking of the past 9 days, for many, it has been a long and torturous experience.
Article
Wall Street AI takes over trading rights, BTC has fallen for 9 days, your opposing side is not human!Article by: Bi Te Ben, piracy will be pursued On November 19, I opened the software in the morning and was disheartened. Bitcoin has dropped again. This is already the ninth consecutive day. Since Singles' Day (I don't even want to mention Double 11, it's all tears), this K-line has been behaving strangely, going down steadily step by step. I also went around various communities and found a very interesting phenomenon. A few days ago, everyone was looking for reasons. Some said there was bad news, some said a certain exchange was hacked. Today is the ninth day, and everyone is silent.

Wall Street AI takes over trading rights, BTC has fallen for 9 days, your opposing side is not human!

Article by: Bi Te Ben, piracy will be pursued
On November 19, I opened the software in the morning and was disheartened.
Bitcoin has dropped again.
This is already the ninth consecutive day.
Since Singles' Day (I don't even want to mention Double 11, it's all tears), this K-line has been behaving strangely, going down steadily step by step.
I also went around various communities and found a very interesting phenomenon.
A few days ago, everyone was looking for reasons. Some said there was bad news, some said a certain exchange was hacked.
Today is the ninth day, and everyone is silent.
Article
Bitcoin has fallen for 8 consecutive days? Behind the drop below $90,000, is it institutional funds stepping on each other?Written by: Bitben, theft will be pursued. I still remember yesterday, a few friends confidently posted on social media saying that Bitcoin wouldn't drop below $90,000 and Ethereum wouldn't drop below $3,000. At that moment, I felt something was off. Sure enough, on November 18, Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped again. That's not the main point; the main point is that this is the eighth consecutive day. It started on Tuesday, November 11, with an ugly bearish candle, followed by another, and today is the eighth. Fortunately, I spent quite a bit during the Double 11 shopping festival, so I'm grateful. $90,000 was relatively far yesterday, it fluctuated between $92,000 and $96,000 throughout the day.

Bitcoin has fallen for 8 consecutive days? Behind the drop below $90,000, is it institutional funds stepping on each other?

Written by: Bitben, theft will be pursued.
I still remember yesterday, a few friends confidently posted on social media saying that Bitcoin wouldn't drop below $90,000 and Ethereum wouldn't drop below $3,000.
At that moment, I felt something was off.
Sure enough, on November 18, Bitcoin and Ethereum dropped again.
That's not the main point; the main point is that this is the eighth consecutive day. It started on Tuesday, November 11, with an ugly bearish candle, followed by another, and today is the eighth.
Fortunately, I spent quite a bit during the Double 11 shopping festival, so I'm grateful.
$90,000 was relatively far yesterday, it fluctuated between $92,000 and $96,000 throughout the day.
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Bearish
$CFX Look at the picture I sent, behind cfx is the extreme distrust of capital. In the Hong Kong stock market, it plummeted 66% that day. If you don't understand, you can check the background of Xingtai Chain Group, which specializes in cheating. No wonder there are people in the circle every day flaunting pictures to short cfx and make a fortune. This is simply an insult to us spot holders!!!$CFX {spot}(CFXUSDT) The reputation of our people is being ruined by these individuals, hold strong!#美联储重启降息步伐
$CFX Look at the picture I sent, behind cfx is the extreme distrust of capital. In the Hong Kong stock market, it plummeted 66% that day. If you don't understand, you can check the background of Xingtai Chain Group, which specializes in cheating. No wonder there are people in the circle every day flaunting pictures to short cfx and make a fortune. This is simply an insult to us spot holders!!!$CFX
The reputation of our people is being ruined by these individuals, hold strong!#美联储重启降息步伐
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