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$BTC Oh s*** 😡 Inflation just surged to 4.2%, the highest level since 2023 🚨 US CPI hit 4.2% year over year in May, up from 3.8% last month. The entire spike is driven by energy prices from the Iran conflict, something the Fed cannot fix by raising rates. The number the Fed actually watches is Core CPI, which strips out food and energy. Core CPI came in at 0.2% MOM against an expectation of 0.3% and a previous reading of 0.4%. Underlying inflation is cooling faster than markets were pricing in. This gives the Fed breathing room. The headline number is hot because of oil. Oil prices are a geopolitical problem, not a monetary policy problem. Two scenarios from here. If the Iran ceasefire holds and oil corrects, the next CPI print could come in below 4%, opening the door for a rate cut. If the conflict continues and oil spikes further, headline CPI could hit 4.5% or higher, forcing the Fed to hike in December. Core CPI at 0.2% just changed the conversation. Whether it matters depends entirely on what happens with oil in the next 30 days #USCPISurgesToThreeYearHighOf4.2% #OilVolatilityReturnsToPreIranWarLevels $ETH $TRUMP