Bitcoin has a very clear 4 year halving cycles which it followed all previous years.
Top of each cycle comes to November-December. Bottom forms 1-1.3 years after that top.
Bottom consolidation period usually correlates with 0.5-0.75 period of bearish cycles which corresponds with December'22-June'23. Since it doesn't yet look like BTC had final capitulation I believe we should see the bottom in the beginning of 2023 year (March-June). Most probably it will be 10540-12500 zone (see week chart below).
Target for beginning of 2024 year is 25-29k which should start a new bull run towards new all time high in November-December 2025. Sorry, but I will not play in Nostradamus trying to guess it.
Keep that chart in mind not to get too fearful or greedy. I've created it in December 2019 and it helped me to survive through all these years. Hope it will help you as well 🙏
Both short-term $BTC targets were hit - a revisit of the January close and a dip to the Weekly 20-SMA and Tuesday’s NY high at 76574 ✅✅
The CME gap remains open, but BTC is still within a 4H uptrend, so dips into that area can be treated as potential bullish reactions. There’s also a large CME gap above, from Wednesday’s high at 79444 up to 83760. It’s unclear whether it will be fully covered during the current 4H trend, but a partial fill is definitely possible.
I’m taking a vacation until May 7th - heading to China. Wish me luck 😎 Bringing my notebook, but not sure I’ll have time for charts. And even if I do, the +6h time difference might shift updates to earlier hours.
⏰ TG alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 78707, 72333, 70333, 67711, 66937, 64918, 62401
After last review $ETH went up to 2423 and now pulled back to where it started. So far no clear signal that this correction is over. Besides US haven't made any strong impulse on their turn, so waiting.
Nearest potential support zone is around 2023 close with more precise levels at 2297 and 2274. I' d wait for the last one. If there will be another leg down (or it just dump there through the nearest liquidity zones), then next are 2240 and 2200.
Similar to BTC, Ethereum got rejected from Weekly 20sma and almost returned back to Daily 20sma.
Two zones make sense to watch for entries - below at ~2240 and above at ~2380. Obviously price can travel further, but these levels are the nearest liquidity pools that whales gonna hunt in any case.
Chart is squeezing between main dynamic levels. This consolidation may take a while and can be very choppy. The lower levels I've marked can be taken out in case of rejection from 2380-2400 zone. Hard to predict what happens in can ETH grows to LP at ~2470 as there are lots of gaps above and price can pump high without any resistance. But I won't look that far at this stage.
$BTC hit January close at 78700 and next target above it at 79396 (February high) and pulled back below trendline, as expected ✅✅ TG overbought alarm caught the top of that swing👌🏼
For the nearest time I see two possible scenarios. BTC can go for re-test of January close and upper trendline around 78.7k or go down to cover CME big double gap down to ~76k. I can't forecast the sequence of moves, but both areas will be visited for sure.
During correction watch price action around Weekly 20sma (alarm for cross will appear here). Most probably US desired to push price back to 76574 where was Tuesday New York high. The rest is optional for long wicks down to FVG around 75950.
⏰ FREE TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 78707, 72333, 70333, 67711, 66937, 64918, 62401
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📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈
I was right about a choppy day, but didn't expect $BTC to cover all target zones I've marked within it. But so it did - lost LTF support, went for lower liquidity pools and then pump back above weekly 20sma and covered nearest FVG at ~77.7k, almost getting to the next zone ✅✅
Now Weekly 20sma act as support (or may be considered as one). The next upper target above January close (78700) remains valid and might be hit today. But in general I think that after hitting that trendline BTC will come back to re-test at least LTF liquidity pools around 77.3k and 76.8k
⏰ FREE TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 79397, 72333, 70333, 67711, 66937, 64918, 62401
I was right about a choppy day, but didn't expect $BTC to cover all target zones I've marked within it. But so it did - lost LTF support, went for lower liquidity pools and then pump back above weekly 20sma and covered nearest FVG at ~77.7k, almost getting to the next zone ✅✅
Now Weekly 20sma act as support (or may be considered as one). The next upper target above January close (78700) remains valid and might be hit today. But in general I think that after hitting that trendline BTC will come back to re-test at least LTF liquidity pools around 77.3k and 76.8k
⏰ FREE TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 79397, 72333, 70333, 67711, 66937, 64918, 62401
Trend: D ▶️ W 🔽 M 🔽
😱 F&G: 32 < 33 < 29 < 27 < 26
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📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈
$BTC re-test of Weekly 20sma done ✅👍
So far 1-4H uptrend is alive, but feels like a choppy zone to me. Nevertheless one more impulse up is possible and it targets same key levels I mentioned yesterday - FVG at ~77700 and possibly January close at 78700. On the last one price will touch upper trendline of HTF bear flag. So keep an eye on it.
Zone around 76-76.2k may be considered as LTF support which also correlates with yesterday's US POC. BTC shouldn't lose it in order to continue towards above targets. If it does, and doesn't return back above fast, the only reason that may happen, is because market is preparing for liquidity hunt under 75433 and 74639.
⏰ FREE TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 79397, 72333, 70333, 67711, 66937, 64918, 62401
So far 1-4H uptrend is alive, but feels like a choppy zone to me. Nevertheless one more impulse up is possible and it targets same key levels I mentioned yesterday - FVG at ~77700 and possibly January close at 78700. On the last one price will touch upper trendline of HTF bear flag. So keep an eye on it.
Zone around 76-76.2k may be considered as LTF support which also correlates with yesterday's US POC. BTC shouldn't lose it in order to continue towards above targets. If it does, and doesn't return back above fast, the only reason that may happen, is because market is preparing for liquidity hunt under 75433 and 74639.
⏰ FREE TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 79397, 72333, 70333, 67711, 66937, 64918, 62401
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📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈
Strong dynamic SR at Weekly 20sma stopped $BTC growth last week. Last overbought alarm in TG marked the top 🤌
I believe short term correction is over and we should see some bounce today. CME closed Friday at 77735, so US session today will find itself far below where it left last week. If price won't grow within nearest 1.5 hours, there will be a double gap above strongly asking for revisit.
Mid term may expect re-test of Weekly 20sma. After that either price forms double top and drop back to Daily 20sma (~72k) or breakout higher to cover huge CME gap within 79.3-83.8k (for Binance prices). Overall 4H uptrend is still valid. Day only forming uptrend, but I'd rather be cautious and stick to bear flag range for now. Watch Weekly 20sma re-test - volume and PA will show the next step. No need for guessing.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 79397, 72333, 70333, 67711, 66937, 64918, 62401
Similar to BTC, Ethereum got rejected from Weekly 20sma and almost returned back to Daily 20sma.
Two zones make sense to watch for entries - below at ~2240 and above at ~2380. Obviously price can travel further, but these levels are the nearest liquidity pools that whales gonna hunt in any case.
Chart is squeezing between main dynamic levels. This consolidation may take a while and can be very choppy. The lower levels I've marked can be taken out in case of rejection from 2380-2400 zone. Hard to predict what happens in can ETH grows to LP at ~2470 as there are lots of gaps above and price can pump high without any resistance. But I won't look that far at this stage.
Strong dynamic SR at Weekly 20sma stopped $BTC growth last week. Last overbought alarm in TG marked the top 🤌
I believe short term correction is over and we should see some bounce today. CME closed Friday at 77735, so US session today will find itself far below where it left last week. If price won't grow within nearest 1.5 hours, there will be a double gap above strongly asking for revisit.
Mid term may expect re-test of Weekly 20sma. After that either price forms double top and drop back to Daily 20sma (~72k) or breakout higher to cover huge CME gap within 79.3-83.8k (for Binance prices). Overall 4H uptrend is still valid. Day only forming uptrend, but I'd rather be cautious and stick to bear flag range for now. Watch Weekly 20sma re-test - volume and PA will show the next step. No need for guessing.
⏰ TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 79397, 72333, 70333, 67711, 66937, 64918, 62401
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📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈
I warned about stop hunting volatility that won't change market structure (4h uptrend) ✅ Everything happens as I said. $BTC dipped to my nearest key zone on the downside and pumped back and hit nearest two upper target levels 🤌
This move taking place now is breakout of Daily range high. Next target is Weekly 20sma around 77800. Above it January close at 78706, That will be a strong resistance level. So either it will stop BTC or let it pump higher into volume gap that can be skipped fast up to 80-81k
⏰ FREE TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 79397, 72333, 70333, 67711, 66937, 64918, 62401
I warned about stop hunting volatility that won't change market structure (4h uptrend) ✅ Everything happens as I said. $BTC dipped to my nearest key zone on the downside and pumped back and hit nearest two upper target levels 🤌
This move taking place now is breakout of Daily range high. Next target is Weekly 20sma around 77800. Above it January close at 78706, That will be a strong resistance level. So either it will stop BTC or let it pump higher into volume gap that can be skipped fast up to 80-81k
⏰ FREE TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 79397, 72333, 70333, 67711, 66937, 64918, 62401
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📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈
$BTC held above ~74500 for some time, but now making a dip below it towards developing Year VWAP at ~73954 which correlates with yesterday's US POC. Either bounce from that zone and make another impulse up, or break down and cover inefficiency zones left behind (which are marked as key levels below).
Short term my indicators show high chances for some stop hunting volatility that most probably won't lead to any market structure change. 4H uptrend is still valid, so I consider lower target zones as good ones for buys. Although situation and potential volatility doesn't favor high leverage.
⏰ FREE TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 79397, 76009, 72333, 70333, 67711, 66937, 64918, 62401
$BTC held above ~74500 for some time, but now making a dip below it towards developing Year VWAP at ~73954 which correlates with yesterday's US POC. Either bounce from that zone and make another impulse up, or break down and cover inefficiency zones left behind (which are marked as key levels below).
Short term my indicators show high chances for some stop hunting volatility that most probably won't lead to any market structure change. 4H uptrend is still valid, so I consider lower target zones as good ones for buys. Although situation and potential volatility doesn't favor high leverage.
⏰ FREE TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 79397, 76009, 72333, 70333, 67711, 66937, 64918, 62401
I was right about BTC's bullish momentum and 76k as potential target ✅
Now that momentum starts to fade away on lower timeframes and Daily, but Weekly chart still leaves a chance to push price higher. But this time I am not so sure - $BTC got to find acceptance back above ~74500 in order to make that last pump towards 76.5k and maybe Weekly 20sma (now at ~77666, but next week will be lower).
On the downside, nearest liquidity pool around 72333. If things get bearish and price falls lower, that will confirm the top and reversal into correction, where next major zone will be CME gap that correlates with DAily 20sma (now around 69730).
⏰ FREE TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 79397, 76009, 72333, 70333, 67711, 66937, 64918, 62401
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Told you, $BTC bullish momentum hasn't faded away 👌🏼 The move I expected is in progress. First FVG closed, second coming. Will alarm for 76k get triggered today? 🤑
$BTC has covered all the target zones from yesterday’s review. Note that the CME gap was filled overnight, but it won’t be considered “closed” unless the US session pushes price back into it. That doesn’t have to happen today, but sooner or later price is likely to revisit lower levels.
At the same time, bullish momentum hasn’t faded yet, so there’s still fuel for further upside. Two small FVGs at 75.1k and 75.5k are the nearest targets for wicks, and the most “liquidational” move would likely push BTC above 76k (March high).
Ethereum bounced from Daily 20sma and wiped out liquidity pool above ~2205. Same zone acted as support on pullback and later let price drop below flipping into resistance. Same zone left FVG in between sessions.
If market make another bullish impulse, most probably we will see 2230 / 2249 on that move. If 2200 SR push $ETH lower, then nearest zones to watch PA are 2150 / 2121.
#Ethereum done two waves up, but last one signaled bearish divergence at RSI. So, while it remains short term bullish, worth watching for rejection in order to enter short scalp.
Seems like $BTC has good chances to close upper CME gap first. That is 72858-74330 zone. At least my indicators tell me that bullish move started on Tuesday is not over yet.
I'm removing sell orders from 72.1k zone for now, but consider it important to watch PA there as it is capable to stop the price.
What I wrote about 68500–69900 zone remains valid - inevitable revisit in the future. The only question is sequence of moves - push higher first or dip back to trendline and the zone.
Price seems to be moving back inside the bear flag range, which means the breakdown scenario is either canceled or postponed. I won’t remind about it unless BTC drops back below 69k.
⏰ FREE TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 79397, 75999, 67900, 66937, 64918, 62401
$BTC pumped between the US and Asia sessions - and surprisingly, Tokyo didn’t fade it. Price is now far above where the market left off yesterday, which makes the 68500–69900 zone an inevitable revisit in the future. The only question is whether we see another push higher first.
I was busy in the evening and didn’t take any trades - neither longs nor shorts. Now I’m waiting for bullish momentum to show signs of breakdown before considering shorts or selling. BTC can still move higher and cover upper CME gap, although I believe the local top is near.
Price seems to be moving back inside the bear flag range, which means the breakdown scenario is either canceled or postponed. I won’t remind about it unless BTC drops back below 69k.
⏰ FREE TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 79397, 75999, 67900, 66937, 64918, 62401
As forecasted NY pushed $BTC a bit higher and then let it collapse back to target zone around 68.6k ✅
Upper CME gap not completely closed yet and hides big LP just above 70.6k which will attract price while not that far. On downside another CME gap 67.4–67.9k, but liquidity compared to upper is only under ~66180 and more under ~65510, so range for future volatility is pretty wide.
→ Watching 69.5k–69.7k for rejection and potential shorts (but careful as may breakout to 70.6k fast) → Watching 67.4k-67.7k on pullbacks for possible longs
On the higher timeframe, BTC remains in a downtrend. Anything below 76k doesn’t change the broader picture. A confirmed bear flag breakdown opens the path toward 54–56k, and potentially 44–48k. That lower zone, in my view, is where it makes sense to aggressively accumulate spot, even if just for a bounce back to 56–60k.
⏰ FREE TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 79397, 75999, 69700, 67900, 66937, 64918, 62401
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📉 Bitcoin Daily 📈
London is closed today for Easter Monday, while NY is open as usual - main volatility expected in ~1.5 hours.
The CME gap at 67.4–67.9k remains open, as well as the one BTC tapped today (Binance: 69872–70531). Both technically require a US session close to be filled.
Another key level is Thursday’s US close, aligning with February close at 66937 - sooner or later price is likely to revisit it.
$BTC has already swept all major upside liquidity zones marked on Friday. NY may push it slightly higher on open, but odds favor a drop afterward.
→ Watching 70.5k–71.3k for rejection and potential shorts → Watching 68.6k–67.6k on pullbacks for possible longs
On the higher timeframe, BTC remains in a downtrend. Anything below 76k doesn’t change the broader picture. A confirmed bear flag breakdown opens the path toward 54–56k, and potentially 44–48k.
That lower zone, in my view, is where it makes sense to aggressively accumulate spot, even if just for a bounce back to 56–60k.
⏰ Free TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 79397, 75999, 64918, 62401
#Ethereum wicked above last week's high and now making a backwards move to week's open at 2109 and probably Daily 20sma at ~2090. These are the nearest zones to watch price action.
Bigger liquidity pool is above at ~2205. Comparable in size below is only at ~2005. So upper one is closer and theoretically easier to touch.
The red zone that correlates with upper LP is strong resistance, which held range top till 17/03 breakout, which couldn't sustain price above. Therefore in case of another breakout we may count on similar impulse towards 2283 or higher. Will that bullish impulse or pullback happen first, impossible to predict.
London is closed today for Easter Monday, while NY is open as usual - main volatility expected in ~1.5 hours.
The CME gap at 67.4–67.9k remains open, as well as the one BTC tapped today (Binance: 69872–70531). Both technically require a US session close to be filled.
Another key level is Thursday’s US close, aligning with February close at 66937 - sooner or later price is likely to revisit it.
$BTC has already swept all major upside liquidity zones marked on Friday. NY may push it slightly higher on open, but odds favor a drop afterward.
→ Watching 70.5k–71.3k for rejection and potential shorts → Watching 68.6k–67.6k on pullbacks for possible longs
On the higher timeframe, BTC remains in a downtrend. Anything below 76k doesn’t change the broader picture. A confirmed bear flag breakdown opens the path toward 54–56k, and potentially 44–48k.
That lower zone, in my view, is where it makes sense to aggressively accumulate spot, even if just for a bounce back to 56–60k.
⏰ Free TG #Bitcoin alarms set for: D/W/M20sma, dev Y VWAP VAL/VAL2, 79397, 75999, 64918, 62401