After closely monitoring the Q1/2026 earnings report from Big Tech along with developments in the alternative credit market, I've noticed two factors converging that could potentially create a real 'Black Swan' event – an unexpected event with systemic impact that's hard to predict.
Risk one: The private credit market
The private credit market has ballooned to over $2.1 trillion. After a boom phase fueled by low interest rates, it's now facing strong capital withdrawal pressure.