龚有柴GongYouchai

BTC Evening Analysis | May 13

BTC has been grinding in the range of 80K to 82K today. After peaking at 82K last week, it got pushed back down. Currently hovering around 81K, with volatility shrinking to only about 2%, the market is clearly waiting for direction.

The biggest variable today is yesterday's CPI: a year-on-year increase of 3.8% for April, the highest since May last year. Rising energy costs are the main driver, while core CPI at 2.8% remains relatively moderate. As soon as the data dropped, the S&P fell by 0.4%, the Nasdaq by 0.8%, and BTC also dropped from 82K.

The macro environment isn't very friendly to risk assets right now—high inflation means rate cut expectations are being pushed further out. Kevin Warsh just confirmed his position on the Fed board, and the market is interpreting this as more hawkish.

Jane Street's Q1 13F is also noteworthy: they've significantly reduced their BTC ETF positions, cutting IBIT by 71% and FBTC by 60%. However, at the same time, they've increased their holdings in ETH ETFs and mining stocks, which looks more like a rotation of positions rather than an outright bearish stance.

On the technical side, BTC has been stuck below the 200-day EMA for several days now, with the 82K level repeatedly getting knocked back. Support is seen around 78K.

My judgment: cautiously bearish in the short term, leaning more towards a drop.

With inflation just released, the market is still digesting it. The bullish momentum for BTC has been waning after being pushed back by the 82K resistance. Next, it may retrace to the 78-79K range before looking for a rebound opportunity. I'm not pessimistic in the medium term, but in the short term, don't rush to chase longs.

After watching the charts all day, I realized that the best move is actually to do nothing. It might sound like a no-brainer, but very few can actually hold back.

BTC has been ranging all day. Profits stayed the same, but my mindset changed three times. That's the crypto game.

Worked hard to triple my investment, then gave it all back in one go. A lot of stories in the crypto space start differently, but they all end up the same: can't resist the urge to trade.

BTC has been hovering around 80k for almost two weeks, not moving up or down. The most frustrating part isn't the crash, it's the sideways action—crashes can be a dead cat bounce, but sideways action makes you want to make a move yet feel too hesitant to do so.

This market is all about tough love. Prices drop when you expect a bull run and pump when you're bearish. Every noob is just a 'victim' of my three words: 'HODL' or 'sell'. Less FOMO, less anxiety.

Making profits in a bull market isn't a big deal; surviving a bear market is what counts. You might think you're investing, but really, you're just honing your mindset.

Not losing money is more important than making money. Everyone's heard this, but very few take it to heart. Every time I look back, it’s not the ones who went all in that survived the cycles, but those who were willing to admit when to back off.

Most people lose money because they want to trade in every market condition. Day-to-day fluctuations, five-minute candles, a spike from some news—trying to grab every opportunity ends up with nothing earned. Focus less on short-term trading, keep your hands off the trigger, and remember that profits are made by being patient.

BTC has been ranging around 80k for a whole day. Bulls are hesitant to FOMO in, and bears are scared to short. This sideways action is just how it goes—staying still is way tougher than making a move.

In the past 24 hours, there's been quite a bit of buzz in the AI space, so let’s highlight a few key points worth keeping an eye on.

Google dropped a wave of AI updates for Android 17 ahead of the I/O conference, rebranding as Gemini Intelligence, which includes AI-generated desktop widgets, voice input Rambler (helping you ditch filler words and get straight to the point), AI auto-browsing on Chrome, and a new "Googlebook" note-taking platform. The timing is just weeks before a major revamp of Apple Siri, signaling an increasingly intense face-off in edge AI.

Another sign of social platforms going AI is Threads starting to test Meta AI integration, similar to X's Grok. It's only being tested in five limited markets right now, but user feedback has been lukewarm, with the comments section looking pretty rough. The push for AI integration in social media is bringing pressure either way.

On the security front, Google released a pretty solid report: real-world AI-assisted zero-day vulnerability attacks have been discovered, with cybercriminals weaponizing AI code. They even uncovered malware called PromptSpy that autonomously controls Android devices via Gemini. This isn’t a "coming soon" threat; it’s already happening.

Also worth noting are the venture capital numbers—PitchBook data shows that AI funding reached $255.5 billion in Q1, surpassing the total for all of 2025. OpenAI, Anthropic, and xAI together accounted for 67%, indicating a highly concentrated capital structure.

Several trends are converging: acceleration of edge AI, advancement of social AI, escalation of AI security offense and defense, and extreme capital concentration. Each direction is changing rapidly, and no one can afford to stay still.

Yesterday, the US April CPI dropped, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, slightly above the expected 3.7%, marking the highest since May 2023. Energy was the main driver, with gasoline up 28.4% year-on-year, and the ripple effects of the US-Iran conflict are still spreading.

After the data release, BTC briefly dipped below 80k but quickly bounced back to around 80.5k. At the same time, Trump mentioned that the "ceasefire agreement is hanging by a thread," and there are no signs of oil prices cooling off in the short term.

What's even more noteworthy is that the Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as a member of the Federal Reserve Board, paving the way for a potential succession of Powell. The sentiment in the interest rate market has shifted — the discussion has moved from when to cut rates to whether there will be any rate hikes this year, which is quite a significant change.

BTC is indeed facing considerable short-term pressure: inflation isn't easing, energy prices aren't cooling, and there's no hope for rate cuts. However, the support below 80k indicates that there's capital ready to hold the line. Today we also have PPI data, which might cause some volatility.

BTC has been hanging around the $80,000 mark all day, still lingering near $80,900. This level is strong yet precarious.

On the macro side, there are two key points to keep an eye on today. First, rising energy prices are ramping up inflation expectations, with CME interest rate futures indicating that the market believes the odds of rate hikes this year have surpassed those of rate cuts, which puts pressure on BTC. Second, the upcoming high-level meeting between China and the U.S. this week has the market hoping for an extension of the trade truce; if they can signal stability, it would be a positive for risk assets.

On the data front, Strategy bought another 535 BTC yesterday, now holding a total of 818,869 BTC at an average cost of $75,540. The BTC ETF saw a net inflow of $27.25 million yesterday, marking the first positive number since May; the amount is small but has reversed the outflow trend from previous days.

Technically, BTC has repeatedly confirmed support around $80,000, with the $82,000-$83,000 range serving as short-term resistance. If we can ride the wave of improving macro sentiment upwards, the next target is $85,000. Conversely, if macro pressures intensify, $75,000 is the first line of defense.

My outlook is slightly bullish, but the upside is limited. The fact that BTC can hold above $80,000 in the current environment indicates the market is digesting bearish news. If stability can be projected, capital may flow back in. The odds of moving upwards are a bit higher, but don’t expect a violent pump—slow grinding will be the theme for this week.

It's past seven, those who need to eat dinner are eating, while the traders are still glued to their screens. Tomorrow's Wednesday, let's hope the market shows some action.

The hour after the daily close is the most chill. No matter if you made a profit or took a loss today, shutting off the candlestick charts means it's your time. The market is always there, but life isn't.

Pizza Day is coming up. 16 years ago, 10,000 BTC bought two pizzas, and today that's worth 750 million bucks. Back then, it seemed crazy, but now it’s legendary. Time is the real whale.

This round of market action is different from before: it's a slow grind up and a quick drop down. Just when you think we've broken out, you wake up to find it back down again.

After hanging around the crypto scene for a while, you'll realize that making money isn't really about being smart. The savvy traders jump in and out repeatedly, while the patient ones just sit back and wait for the right opportunity to come.

The market at 2 o'clock is just like the people at 2 o'clock—both are sleepy. But you can't bear to miss out, always feeling that the next second could bring a big move.

Saw someone flexing their hundredx gains again today. Hold up, just wait for the next bear market to check back in; most folks' profiles haven't been updated in six months. This game is full of legends, but what we're really missing are the ones who can HODL long-term.