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Market analysts tracking the macroeconomy will find bitcoin BTC$62,322.18 in a particularly intriguing spot right now, characterized by conflicting sets of inflation signals. Compounding the uncertainty is the latest flare-up in the conflict with Iran and its effect on oil prices.
Early this week, we noted how inflation breakevens — the bond market’s expectations for the cost of living over the next year and beyond — have come off sharply, weakening the case for Fed interest-rate increases. That’s a tailwind for BTC.
But U.S. consumers are not in sync with markets, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey released Tuesday.
They now expect inflation to rise to 3.7% over the next 12 months, up from 3.5% in May and the highest reading since September 2023. Looking forward for the next three years, expectations climbed to 3.3%, the most since June 2022.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has said that the central bank remains committed to bringing inflation down to 2%, disappointing anyone who expects it to tolerate higher inflation or give in to White House pressure for rate cuts.
Will the Fed focus on the breakevens, which are already at or below 2% at the short end, or on rising consumer concerns?
The Fed itself tends to trust breakevens because they reflect institutional capital allocation, while consumer surveys frequently lag behind and can be heavily influenced by volatile everyday costs like energy and food. Hence, the argument that falling breakevens are bullish for bitcoin still holds.
But the central bank may not entirely ignore Main Street sentiment, which can become self-reinforcing, especially if catalysts like energy prices remain volatile.
And guess what? The U.S.-Iran ceasefire has collapsed. The two sides exchanged airstrikes early today, triggering a roughly 5% jump in oil benchmarks. Bitcoin has fallen back to $62,000 and may drop further if the panic spreads to Wall Street later today.
Analysts are also watching the minutes from the Fed’s June meeting, due later today.
“Wednesday’s Fed minutes are the pin. With longs this crowded and funding this rich, a hawkish read is exactly the spark that flushes leverage, and the Strategy authorization hangs over every rally. We respect the bounce, we do not trust it, and we keep size honest into the minutes,” analysts at Marex said in an email.
Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today's activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today . For a comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk's "Crypto Week Ahead."
What’s trending
Bitcoin under pressure as Trump says Iran ceasefire is over (CoinDesk): Bitcoin and the broader crypto market came under pressure after the U.S. and Iran exchanged air strikes, sending the dollar higher, and President Donald Trump said the ceasefire is over.Dow futures drop 700 points, oil surges after Trump declares Iran ceasefire ‘over’ (CNBC): Stock futures moved sharply amid renewed hostilities in the Middle East. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 705 points, or 1.3%. Oil prices were up more than 6%.Crypto exchange Kraken is trying to become a bank in Europe (CoinDesk): Kraken, the crypto exchange planning to go public in the U.S., is pursuing a full banking license in Europe, with a focus on Lithuania to secure it, according to a person familiar with the plans.BlackRock-backed Securitize slides 40% after SPAC debut despite tokenization boom (CoinDesk): Securitize (SECZ), the BlackRock-backed tokenization specialist that went public last week, is off to a rough start despite arriving as one of the few pure-play bets on one of Wall Street's hottest crypto trends. The firm's shares tumbled roughly 25% on Tuesday.$BTX $BTC $SOL #isar #USStrikesIranRevokesOilWaiver #BitcoinTradesLower #JapanBondYieldsRise #TemasekPortfolioValueHitsRecord

$BTC Cơ chế hữu ích hôm nay là sự khác biệt giữa một lần quét (sweep) và một lần phá (break). BTC đã được Binance gắn mốc ở 61.855 USD sau khi mở cửa phiên UTC gần 63.256 USD, trong khi đáy 24 giờ nằm ngay dưới vùng tròn 62K. Một lần quét có nghĩa là giá đi xuyên qua một đáy đã biết, rồi nhanh chóng được chấp nhận quay trở lại phía trên nó. Một lần phá có nghĩa là các nến tiếp theo tiếp tục đóng cửa dưới mức đó và các nhịp hồi thất bại tại đó.
Vì sao điều này quan trọng hôm nay: tin tức Iran/dầu tạo ra các bóng nến (wick) nhanh. Bài học là đừng thờ phụng cái bóng nến, mà hãy theo dõi sự chấp nhận sau khi nó xuất hiện.
Quy tắc: mức độ quan trọng ít hơn nơi mà các nến tiếp theo chấp nhận.

$BTC $ETH The easy read is: U.S.-Iran escalation hit crypto, so Bitcoin failed as a macro hedge. My read is different. BTC is down 2.38% in 24h near $61,946, ETH is down 2.41% near $1,739, but SOL is down 5.54% and XRP is down 4.01%. That is not a clean hedge debate. It is leverage being cut from higher-beta coins first.
The level I care about is the $61,743 BTC 24h low. If price keeps accepting below it, the headline becomes a trend problem. If BTC holds above it while alts stay heavy, the message is narrower: collateral survived, beta got repriced.
Keepable read: geopolitical shocks usually hit leverage before they rewrite the BTC thesis.
#USLaunchesNewStrikesAgainstIran #BitcoinTradesLower #OilRises5%OnUSIranTensions