cryptocycle

$BTC is sitting nearly 50% below its October peak.
Fear & Greed just printed 8.
Analysts are throwing out $10K targets.
And yet… retail isn’t gone.
This isn’t just volatility.
This is a cycle stress test.
Let me break down what I’m actually seeing beneath the noise.
The First Thing That Stood Out
While mainstream headlines scream “crypto winter,” something quieter is happening:
Retail flows on exchanges like Coinbase show dip buying.
Spot balances in $BTC and $ETH haven’t collapsed the way they typically do during full-blown capitulation phases.
Now pause there.
In real bear market bottoms (2018, late 2022), retail disappears.
They don’t “buy the dip.”
They uninstall the app.
That hasn’t happened yet.
That doesn’t mean bullish.
But it tells me conviction hasn’t fully broken — and late-cycle corrections often require that final psychological snap.
The $10K Bitcoin Narrative
Bloomberg strategist Mike McGlone recently floated the idea of Bitcoin reverting toward $10,000 if equities roll over.
The macro thesis is straightforward:
US equities stretched on valuation
Volatility compressed
Gold and silver gaining relative strength
Liquidity conditions tightening
If the S&P 500 were to retrace sharply, Bitcoin — still behaving as a high-beta liquidity asset — could mirror that downside.
Is $10K insane?
No.
Is it guaranteed?
Also no.
Bitcoin doesn’t move on doom projections.
It moves on positioning, leverage, and exhaustion.
The Indicator I Care About More Than Headlines
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) for long-term holders is sitting around ~0.36.
Translation:
Long-term holders are still comfortably in profit.
Historically, true macro bottoms form when:
Long-term holder NUPL turns negative
Strong hands go underwater
Seller exhaustion completes
We are not there yet.
And that’s important.
Cycle lows tend to form when even the most convicted wallets feel pain.
MVRV Just Entered Accumulation
According to on-chain data providers like CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has re-entered the historical accumulation zone.
The last time this happened in size? Mid-2022.
And what followed wasn’t an instant rally.
It was another leg down before the real base formed.
Low MVRV = undervaluation.
But undervaluation ≠ immediate reversal.
Sometimes it just means you’re early.
I’ve learned that lesson personally.
40%+ of Supply Underwater
Roughly 43% of circulating supply is currently at a loss.
That matters more than short-term price action.
When nearly half the network is underwater:
Weak hands feel pressure
Forced sellers emerge
Strong hands begin absorbing
But here’s the nuance:
Extreme fear can persist longer than most traders can remain solvent or emotionally stable.
That’s where most accounts get chopped.
What This Actually Feels Like
This doesn’t feel like 2019.
Psychologically, it resembles mid-2022:
Retail still somewhat engaged
Long-term holders still profitable
Macro tightening but not broken
Narratives shifting from hype to fundamentals
Valuations being repriced
That tells me we’re likely in a compression phase, not necessarily the final flush.
What I’m Watching Now
I don’t care about dramatic price targets.
I care about:
Are long-term holders distributing or accumulating?
Is exchange supply declining?
Is leverage getting flushed from the system?
Are funding rates resetting structurally?
Are miners holding or selling into weakness?
On-chain absorption shows up before headlines flip.
That’s where edge lives.
My Positioning (Bias, Not Advice)
I’m not aggressive yet.
I’m:
Selective
Patient
Watching for emotional exhaustion
Looking for structural deleveraging
If NUPL turns negative…
If long-term holders go underwater…
If retail sentiment truly breaks…
That’s when asymmetric opportunity historically appears.
What Most Traders Are Missing
Everyone is debating:
“Is $10K coming?”
“Is the bull market over?”
The better question is:
Are strong hands absorbing supply quietly?
Markets don’t bottom when fear appears.
They bottom when fear exhausts.
We’re close.
But we’re not fully broken yet.
And in every cycle I’ve studied, the final flush always feels unnecessary — almost unfair.
That’s usually the opportunity.
If this breakdown helped you see beyond the headlines, follow for more cycle-based analysis.
I don’t trade narratives.
I track positioning.
#BTC #Bitcoin #CryptoCycle #OnChainAnalysis #Marketstructure

🔥 The Market Is Whispering Again…
Six bars. Six weeks. 42 days.
Back in September–October 2021, SHIB shocked the entire market with an explosive rally that turned a quiet phase into one of crypto’s most iconic moves. During October 2021 alone, SHIB rose more than 800%, eventually reaching its all-time high near the end of the month.
Now traders are looking at a similar timing window — and asking one questio
Could history rhyme again in 2026?

No promises. No guarantees. But the setup is interesting enough that the market is talking about it.
📊 Why People Are Watching This Pattern
Here’s the logic many traders are discussing:
A long bearish period often drains all excitement from the market.SHIB has gone through extended downside pressure — something that historically resets expectations.In 2021, the first week of the cycle was near the bottom — then momentum exploded.
Crypto doesn’t move in straight lines.

It moves when most people stop believing.
🧠 The Bigger Picture (Beyond SHIB)
This isn’t just about one meme coin.
The overall crypto market has shown long-term expansion cycles, even after deep corrections. Analysts have pointed out that total market capitalization has repeatedly recovered to new highs over time.
And let’s be honest — when major assets like Bitcoin recover, liquidity eventually flows into higher-risk plays again.
That’s when unexpected moves happen.
⚡ Two Realistic Scenarios From Here
1️⃣ The Explosive Scenario (High Volatility)
Momentum returns suddenlyVolume spikesSHIB enters a fast bullish phase like past cycles
These moves usually start quietly… then accelerate faster than expected.
2️⃣ The Slow Builder (Healthy Trend)
Gradual higher highsHigher lowsLong-term growth instead of a vertical pump
Less hype — but often more sustainable.
❌ The Least Likely Scenario
A permanent downtrend forever.
Crypto markets evolve, capital rotates, and narratives shift. Even after painful periods, recovery phases tend to appear somewhere in the cycle — though timing is always uncertain.
💭 Market Psychology (The Part Most Ignore)
The hardest moment for investors is usually:
Right beforr things start changing.
When charts look terrible… when confidence is low… that’s often where new trends quietly begin.
Long bear markets don’t just destroy prices — they build stronger holders.
The market doesn’t reward impatience.

It rewards survival.
Maybe SHIB repeats history.

Maybe it writes a completely different story.
But one thing crypto has proven again and again:
The unexpected is always possible.

#SHIB #ShibaInu #CryptoCycle #AltcoinSeason #BullRun

Thị trường crypto không di chuyển một cách ngẫu nhiên, như nhiều người giả định.
Mỗi chu kỳ — mỗi sự chuyển động của tính thanh khoản từ tài sản này sang tài sản khác — mang theo một logic sâu sắc hơn được hình thành bởi tâm lý con người, phân bổ vốn và môi trường vĩ mô toàn cầu.
Câu hỏi thực sự không phải là tại sao tính thanh khoản lại di chuyển,
mà là ai điều khiển nó — và nó thực sự diễn ra như thế nào.
Đầu tiên: Tính Thanh Khoản Luân Chuyển Trong Thị Trường Như Thế Nào?
Sự luân chuyển thanh khoản thường theo một cấu trúc dễ nhận biết:
1️⃣ Tập trung vào Lãnh đạo
Các chu kỳ thường bắt đầu với Bitcoin.

🚨🌍 2026 Feels Quiet… Too Quiet 🇺🇸🇪🇺🇯🇵
No crash.
No euphoria.
Just… calm.
And in crypto, calm is never neutral. It’s pressure building beneath the surface. 🪙🔥
📉 Inflation is “cooling” across 🇺🇸 and 🇪🇺. CPI hovers near 2%. Media says we’re stable. Rate-cut dreams are back.
But history whispers something different.
Before 2008 🇺🇸 — “Everything is fine.”
Before the dot-com collapse 🇺🇸 — “Growth is unstoppable.”
Before every liquidity break — silence.
💧 Liquidity is the only real driver.
• Rates remain elevated 📊
• Global debt keeps rising 🌍
• Money printing slowed, not stopped 💵
• Energy & housing remain sticky 🏠⚡
That’s not stability.
That’s tension.
Cycles reset every 6–8 years. 2008. 2020. 2024–25 tightening.
So what triggers the next move? 👀
Smart money isn’t loud right now.
Funds are positioning quietly.
Infrastructure is being accumulated.
Capital flows are shifting east 🇨🇳🇸🇬
The next shock might not begin with a crash.
It could start with a melt-up.
A violent liquidity expansion.
A brutal repricing upward. 🚀🪙
If everything is stable…
Why are central banks cautious?
Why is debt at records?
Why is gold strong? 🥇
Why won’t Bitcoin fade? ₿
Markets whisper before they scream.
Right now… they’re whispering. 🌊
#CPI #CryptoCycle #Liquidity #Bitcoin #MarketRebound $BTC