There are three realistic scenarios:

1. Limited ceasefire (low probability)

A temporary pause could be reached, but without Hezbollah’s participation, it would likely be unstable.

2. No agreement, continued escalation (most likely)

Talks stall while fighting continues, with outcomes shaped by military developments.

3. Strategic repositioning

Even without a deal, the talks could redefine red lines and future engagement dynamics.$BTC

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