Pelin Ay

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Bears Take the Stage in Ethereum
While a Taker Buy/Sell Ratio above 1 seems positive, the price isn't showing the same strength. This indicates that buying in the market isn't pushing the price up, as large sellers are countering incoming purchases. Real money inflows into the spot market remain weak.

Fund Price has been steadily declining since peaking in April. Long appetite in futures markets is decreasing. Leveraged investors are shrinking their positions. The fact that Fund Price and the price are falling together can be considered a signal supporting a downtrend.

Despite the rise in the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio, the price isn't reacting. The current ratio has risen to 1.13. Under normal circumstances, this would be expected to push the price up. However, the price is only showing a limited reaction. This suggests that sell orders are stronger, and whales are using rallies as selling opportunities. This type of divergence is often seen in the continuation of a downtrend rather than an uptrend.

The price is still forming lower peaks. Each reaction remains below the previous peak. Lows are also being pushed down. This structure technically indicates that the downtrend is still being maintained. There doesn't seem to be strong demand on the spot market.

The likelihood of a continued downward trend in #ETH appears higher than the likelihood of a strong and sustained recovery. Especially without an upward reversal in Fund Price and without the price technically breaking the downtrend, current buying risks remaining more of a short-term reaction. A Taker Buy Sell above 1 could be interpreted as a dead cat bounce. #Ethereum $ETH

The Big Drop Today Was Foreshadowed Since February.Analyzing the chart solely by reading the available data reveals reasons that could increase the risk of a decline in the recent period. These reasons are: 1. Miner to Exchange Flow = 7,775 BTC Daily change: +35.97% This data shows the amount of BTC miners are sending to Binance. Exchange inflows have become more frequent, especially towards the end of May and throughout June. Flows that were in negative territory are recovering upwards. A strong jump has occurred again in the latest measurement. The fact that miners, many of whom are at a loss, are sending more BTC to exchanges is the biggest sign that the supply they have to meet in the market is increasing. 2. MPI has risen significantly to -0.15 in recent days. It continues to remain in negative territory, but the important thing is not the level, but the direction. In the chart, MPI has turned upwards rapidly in recent weeks. When MPI rises, miners start moving more coins than their historical averages. Although not yet in the oversold region, the continuous rise from the lows coinciding with the increase in Exchange flows suggests that miner behavior is shifting towards the selling side. 3- The structure has completely changed after the major peak in February. The chart shows a sharp surge in the MPI in February. A very large jump is seen in Exchange Flow. After this movement, the upper envelope band begins to slope downwards. The lower envelope band also moves downwards. The entire channel enters a downtrend. In other words, after the miner selling activity in February, the market structure has become downward sloping, not upward. Today's latest data shows that, although not as strong as this major peak, it is moving in the same direction. 4- On the chart, the Realized Price is $53,388, and the middle line of the Envelope is approaching approximately the same region. In this case, the market is retreating towards the cost base. The profit margin generated during rallies is shrinking. The price approaching the realized price during periods of increased supply from miners usually coincides with periods of weak buying appetite in the market. All this chart data indicates that selling pressure is starting to strengthen again. In particular, the increase in miner-sourced supply and the continued upward trend of the MPI suggest that the data points to a potential deepening of the downward pressure, rather than a softening of the risk. The strongest signal here isn't just the MPI alone; it's the simultaneous increase in Miner to Exchange Flow as the MPI rises. When these two data points are read together, it shows that miners are starting to supply more BTC to the market. The groundwork for this selling pressure has actually been laid since February. Those who noticed this, like me, are quite lucky!

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The Big Drop Today Was Foreshadowed Since February.

Analyzing the chart solely by reading the available data reveals reasons that could increase the risk of a decline in the recent period.
These reasons are:
1. Miner to Exchange Flow = 7,775 BTC Daily change: +35.97% This data shows the amount of BTC miners are sending to Binance. Exchange inflows have become more frequent, especially towards the end of May and throughout June. Flows that were in negative territory are recovering upwards. A strong jump has occurred again in the latest measurement. The fact that miners, many of whom are at a loss, are sending more BTC to exchanges is the biggest sign that the supply they have to meet in the market is increasing.
2. MPI has risen significantly to -0.15 in recent days. It continues to remain in negative territory, but the important thing is not the level, but the direction. In the chart, MPI has turned upwards rapidly in recent weeks. When MPI rises, miners start moving more coins than their historical averages. Although not yet in the oversold region, the continuous rise from the lows
coinciding with the increase in Exchange flows
suggests that miner behavior is shifting towards the selling side.
3- The structure has completely changed after the major peak in February. The chart shows a sharp surge in the MPI in February.
A very large jump is seen in Exchange Flow. After this movement, the upper envelope band begins to slope downwards. The lower envelope band also moves downwards. The entire channel enters a downtrend. In other words, after the miner selling activity in February, the market structure has become downward sloping, not upward. Today's latest data shows that, although not as strong as this major peak, it is moving in the same direction.
4- On the chart, the Realized Price is $53,388, and the middle line of the Envelope is approaching approximately the same region. In this case, the market is retreating towards the cost base. The profit margin generated during rallies is shrinking. The price approaching the realized price during periods of increased supply from miners usually coincides with periods of weak buying appetite in the market.
All this chart data indicates that selling pressure is starting to strengthen again. In particular, the increase in miner-sourced supply and the continued upward trend of the MPI suggest that the data points to a potential deepening of the downward pressure, rather than a softening of the risk. The strongest signal here isn't just the MPI alone; it's the simultaneous increase in Miner to Exchange Flow as the MPI rises. When these two data points are read together, it shows that miners are starting to supply more BTC to the market. The groundwork for this selling pressure has actually been laid since February. Those who noticed this, like me, are quite lucky!

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Ethereum dirençten ret yedi ve çok güçsüz görünüyor. 1350$ ' a kadar gerilemesini bekliyorum. Siz bu konuda ne düşünüyorsunuz? $ETH #Ethereum

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Bitcoin failed to stay above $64,800. I had already said that this rise wasn't going to be sustainable. A drop to $59,000 seems certain. But will we see it go below that? Time will tell. If you ask my opinion, we'll see. $BTC #Bitcoin

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Ethereum is maintaining its downtrend structure. A rise to $2100 wouldn't break this pattern. We can only consider an uptrend if we see a weekly close above $2100. As you know, I made an initial spot purchase. It's too early to add more. I don't think the decline is over. $BTC

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🐻I don't think the decline in Bitcoin is over. A rebound up to $72750 is possible. After that, I think the decline will continue.

I made an initial spot purchase. I'm waiting to add more.

However, my opinion will change if there is a weekly close above $72750. Therefore, I will look for a short entry point from the resistance. #Bitcoin #BTC $BTC

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Analysis of Current Miner Costs in the Chart
HUT: $81.0K
RIOT: $78.8K
BITF: 72.9K
WULF: 46.0K
Average Production Cost: Approximately $69.7K
Operational Base Cost: $45.7k
Bitcoin's current price is approximately $64.4k, significantly below the average production cost in the market and the costs of giants like HUT and RIOT. Currently, only WULF appears to be costing less than the BTC price.

In the current situation, the fact that the #Bitcoin price remains below average costs could trigger selling pressure in the market.

Miners have to cover fixed operational expenses such as electricity, equipment depreciation, debt payments, and personnel. When the price falls below the production cost, they start selling not only the BTC they produce daily but also their historical #BTC reserves to maintain cash flow.

The Miner Outflow chart shows that miner outflows to the spot market have remained active recently. This creates an additional supply shock in the market, making it difficult for the price to recover upwards and causing it to face pressure every time it tries to rise.

Miners with costs in the $78k-$81k range cannot produce at a loss for long. If this process continues, they will be forced to shut down old, inefficient equipment. The network difficulty and hashrate will decrease. Historically, this temporary cleanup in hashrate signals a macro bottom formation in the market.

The Operational Floor Cost and the cost of the most efficient miner in the chart act as the ultimate macro support for the price in the worst-case scenario. These phases where the price falls below the average cost indicate a painful consolidation period where the accumulation process begins in the market.

In short, miners are currently experiencing a serious profitability squeeze. Unless the price rises above the $69.7k - $72.9k range and provides relief to miners, miner sales to fund operations will continue to keep selling pressure on the price alive. $BTC

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The USDT.d chart shows a breakout above the descending channel that formed between February and June. Following this breakout, USDT dominance rose from approximately 7.3% to 9%. This movement indicates a significant shift of capital from the market to stablecoins.

Currently, dominance is at 8.31%, and it is retreating after its recent peak.

Key levels:
Resistance: 8.30% - 8.50% region
Support: 7.85%
Stronger support further down: 7.50% - 7.30%

A decline in USDT dominance suggests that investors are exiting stablecoins and moving towards cryptocurrencies, with increased inflows into Bitcoin and altcoins.

If dominance finds support at 7.85% and then moves back towards the 8.3%-8.5% region, it means investors are starting to move back to cash. Therefore, we should carefully monitor this support level.

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WILL XRP INVESTORS END THEIR WAITING PERIOD BY BUYING OR SELLING?
First of all, the Exchange Reserve metric shows the total amount of XRP held in Binance wallets. Since Binance is an exchange heavily populated by institutional investors and whales, a decrease in reserves generally indicates that investors are withdrawing their XRP from the exchange and holding it long-term, while an increase in reserves indicates that they are bringing XRP to the exchange for sale.

Binance reserves have been on a downward trend in recent months. Binance reserves have decreased from approximately 2.8 billion XRP to 2.69 billion XRP. This indicates that investors are withdrawing their XRP from the exchange, the desire to sell has decreased, and whales, in particular, are inclined to hold onto it. Therefore, it can be said that selling pressure is lower than it will be in mid-2025.

As reserves fall, so does the price. This suggests that while institutional investors are accumulating, small investors are inclined to sell. This is because liquidations have decreased on both sides recently. So, since both long and short liquidations have been cleared, it means the spot market is primarily causing the price drop.

The MFI is currently around 43. This shows that the price is neither in the oversold nor overbought zone. In other words, there is neither strong fear nor strong greed in the market right now.

If the selling pressure gives way to buying pressure while reserves are falling, an increase could be seen. Looking at this chart, it seems that a large portion of XRP investors are inclined to wait. Therefore, every sell-off is pushing the price down. I think we are currently experiencing a correction of the decline. For the decline to end, the price needs to break above $1.2 in the short term and above $1.62 in the medium-to-long term. We can only see this when buying increases.
$XRP #xrp #Ripple

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💰 #xagusdt reacted from $60. It's in the range area. I expect the price to rise first to $75 and then to $88. #Silver $XAG

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💰 #XAUUSD has reached its $4100 liquidity level. The price should rise from here. If it doesn't, it will fall to $3500. This would disappoint #GOLD investors. I'm curious about Monday's opening. I predict it will rise.
$XAU

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BNB reacted nicely from the $568 support level I previously indicated. A weekly close above $680 is needed for an upward move. During that time, this range could be a trading opportunity. $BNB

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Link is holding its accumulation zone. The $7.11-$10.11 range is suitable for buying and selling. The direction will be determined by a breakout from this range. Considering the general market trend is downward, there is a 51% chance of a downward breakout. $LINK #LINK #Chainlink

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I've been saying since June 2025 that #Ethereum is facing tough times. The downtrend continues, and unless this trend is broken, altcoins won't be able to breathe easily. We will very likely see $1350. I think anything below $1000 will only be a wick; it won't close the week below that. This will depend on Bitcoin's move below $50K.

I made my first #ETH purchase at $1595. I'm thinking of adding more at $1300. Buying in stages reduces stress. $ETH

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I'm stating that #Bitcoin entered a bear market starting in November 2025. The current situation suggests the decline is still ongoing. The confirmed low of $58,000 will bring it down to $51,750 if broken. I see a drop to this level as highly probable. The target for the Head and Shoulders pattern is around $41,500. Long-term investor support is at $48,500.

So, it might wick below $50,000, but I don't expect it to remain below that level for long.

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🐻 #SUİ continues its downward movement. It seems very clear that this decline will continue down to $0.56. There is a significant liquidity accumulation at this level. However, it is too early to say whether the price will bottom out at this level. We will need to see the #bitcoin price movement first. I will update you accordingly. $SUI

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🐻 #ETH dominance continues to decline. Although dominance seems to be holding onto the mid-range price support, it doesn't look like a very healthy structure. I think the dead cat bounce seen in #Ethereum and #altcoins for the last two days will give way to a decline. $ETH

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📌 #XAUUSD has broken below the $4400 support level. I expect this decline to reach $4100 before the price action reverses upwards. $XAU

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