Bitcoin (BTCUSD) just closed last week with a strong rejection on its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has historically been the absolute Resistance during Bear Cycles, and the strongest red 1W candle in 2 months.
But what's even more 'scary' than that is the fact that this rejection took place roughly 220 days after the Bull Cycle Top, which is exactly the amount of time it took BTC to get rejected on its 1D MA200 since the Cycle Top during the 2018 Bear Cycle.
To make the fractals more similar, the 1W RSI on both cases got rejected exactly on the 51.50 level. What happened after that rejection in 2018 was several weeks of sideways movement between the 1D MA200 and the last Low before the eventual final sell-off to the 1.5 Fibonacci extension to form the Bottom.
If the pattern gets repeated in the exact same way, Bitcoin eyes $41250 on the current 1.5 Fib ext and this is why we still believe that $50k is the minimum Target of this Bear Cycle and a solid level to start buying again for the long-term.
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