Baro2312

$ID showed a clear accumulation phase before being pushed up to 0.0926 (SOS). After that pump, price pulled back quite sharply, but the key point is that selling volume faded, which looks more like a retest / LPS than aggressive distribution. On the H1–H4 timeframes, the structure still leans toward re-accumulation or Phase D. There isn’t enough evidence yet to say this is full distribution. That said, if key support breaks with strong sell volume, the structure can turn bearish very quickly.

Estimated probabilities (subjective):
• Bounce and continuation toward 0.082 → 0.0926: ~45%
• Sideways movement / re-accumulation: ~30%
• Support breakdown and markdown: ~25%

The move to 0.0926 came with strong volume, suggesting real demand stepped in. The pullback that followed lacked heavy selling pressure, which fits a demand test rather than a dump. However, RSI on H1/H4 is cooling into lower levels, showing bullish momentum has weakened. Price is now retesting the major EMA cluster (25–200), which is a critical zone: holding it keeps the structure bullish; losing it shifts the bias bearish. Bollinger Bands are contracting and volume is low after the pump, supporting the idea that the market may be building a base before choosing direction.

Key levels to watch: resistance at 0.082. A clean break above this level with volume increases the chance of revisiting 0.0926. Major support sits at 0.071–0.073; a breakdown on H1/H4 with strong sell volume is a clear warning sign. Below that, 0.064–0.055 would confirm a markdown phase.

If price holds 0.071–0.073 and H1/H4 closes back above EMA25/34 with rising volume while RSI recovers above 45, a bounce toward 0.082 is likely, with potential extension to 0.0926–0.10. If price chops between 0.064–0.082 on low volume, the market is likely re-accumulating and waiting for a real breakout. If H1/H4 closes below 0.071 with strong selling volume, that signals a failed LPS and capital preservation becomes the priority.

Not financial advice. Always manage risk and check liquidity.

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