Crypto-vibe1

Arca's CIO Highlights Key Risk for MSTR Amid Bitcoin Price Fluctuations

According to Odaily, Arca's Chief Investment Officer Jeff Dorman expressed on the X platform that the primary risk facing MSTR is not being delisted by MSCI or a decline in Bitcoin prices. He noted that being removed from MSCI would have only a minor negative impact on the stock and is irrelevant to Bitcoin. Additionally, with over two years of cash reserves and no forced sale clauses, a drop in Bitcoin prices would not compel MSTR to sell.
Dorman identified the real risk as a scenario where Bitcoin prices rise while MSTR's stock price remains stagnant. If MSTR no longer tracks Bitcoin prices and trades significantly below its market net asset value (mNAV), it would be unable to raise funds through an at-the-market (ATM) offering. In such a situation, MSTR might have to consider selling Bitcoin to buy back shares.
#BTC☀️

U.S. Economic Challenges Predicted for 2026, Analyst Warns

According to ChainCatcher, former Merrill Lynch analyst David Rosenberg has forecasted significant challenges for the U.S. economy in 2026. He anticipates a sharp contraction in the job market, which could weaken the economy and compel the Federal Reserve to implement substantial interest rate cuts.
Rosenberg predicts that the U.S. unemployment rate will soon exceed 5% and may approach 6% by the end of the year. He suggests that the collapse of the labor market and the ensuing recession will force the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates by 125 basis points to 2.25% by the end of 2026, which would involve five cuts of 25 basis points each.

Bitcoin Transfer Between Anonymous Addresses Observed

According to ChainCatcher, Arkham data indicates that at 07:28, a total of 126.24 $BTC was transferred from one anonymous address, starting with bc1qdmepc, to another anonymous address, starting with bc1qwjm7u.
#BTC

Market Signals Point to Diverging Trends Between Bitcoin and Ethereum
According to Odaily, 10x Research has emphasized the significance of the current market environment, noting that while most market participants focus primarily on price movements, only a limited number closely monitor positioning dynamics. A clear divergence is emerging between market expectations and the underlying signals for Bitcoin and Ethereum.
Key indicators—including capital flows, derivatives positioning, volatility metrics, and technical structures—are presenting a mixed picture, with certain signals suggesting improvement while others raise cautionary flags. In its latest weekly market update, 10x Research delivers an in-depth assessment of ETF and options-related capital flows, prevailing volatility conditions, and short-term trend indicators for the coming one to two weeks.
The report underscores that, given current market conditions, remaining on the sidelines carries its own risks, highlighting the importance of proactive risk management and strategic positioning.
#BTC #etf #ETH

Large Transfer of SKY Governance Tokens Observed

According to ChainCatcher, Arkham data reveals that at 04:53 and 04:55, a total of 69,957,800 SKY Governance Tokens were transferred from two anonymous addresses to other anonymous addresses.
At 04:53, 59,682,300 SKY tokens were moved from an anonymous address starting with 0xd687 to another anonymous address starting with 0xC037.
At 04:55, 10,275,600 SKY tokens were transferred from an anonymous address starting with 0x225A to another anonymous address starting with 0xbe3b.
#sky

Stolen Crypto Accounts Fetch $105 on Dark Web, Report Says

A SecureList report cited by PANews finds that stolen cryptocurrency accounts sell for an average of $105 on the dark web, with prices ranging from $60 to $400 based on factors like account age, balance, linked payment methods, and 2FA status. Most accounts are compromised through phishing, with stolen data leaked via email, Telegram bots, or admin panels—Telegram being favored for speed and anonymity. More sophisticated operations use admin panel frameworks for real-time verification and data management. From January to September 2025, 88.5% of phishing attacks focused on stealing account credentials.
@Binance News

Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis has endorsed a proposal by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller that could help end crypto debanking in the United States. The proposal would allow crypto and fintech firms limited access to Federal Reserve “skinny” master accounts, enabling payment services under defined restrictions.

Lummis said the framework could effectively end “Operation Chokepoint 2.0” and support payments innovation through faster, cheaper, and more secure systems. The move signals a broader regulatory shift toward recognizing crypto and fintech as important to the future of finance.

Despite a recent executive order aimed at preventing unlawful debanking, crypto firms continue to report account closures by major banks, highlighting the ongoing need for clearer regulatory access to banking services.
#BTC走势分析

Uniswap Transfers 100 Million UNI to Dead Address
According to ChainCatcher, Arkham data reveals that at 04:33, 100 million UNI tokens were transferred from Uniswap to a dead address.
#UNI

Significant Transfer of WLD Tokens Observed

According to ChainCatcher, data from Arkham indicates that at 23:57, a total of 5,371,000 WLD tokens were transferred from a VestingWallet to an anonymous address beginning with 0x64B9.
@Binance News

Growth in crypto adoption is picking up speed.

0 → 170M in 6.5 years.
170M → 300M in just 1+ year.
The community is growing faster than ever. 💛 @Richard Teng

$BTC Bitcoin’s Fourth Halving – April 2024

Bitcoin’s fourth block reward halving occurred on April 20, 2024, at block height 840,000, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC in line with Bitcoin’s fixed issuance schedule.

As a result, daily issuance dropped from ~900 BTC to 450 BTC, and annual issuance from ~328,500 BTC to 164,250 BTC, lowering Bitcoin’s annual supply inflation to approximately 0.83%—below that of gold and independent of monetary policy decisions.

By the end of 2024, Bitcoin’s circulating supply is estimated at around 19.7 million BTC, with over 93.8% of the total 21 million BTC already mined. The halving also shifts miner revenue toward transaction fees, reinforcing Bitcoin’s long-term transition to a fee-based security model.

This halving is irreversible, transparent, and enforced by network consensus, further cementing Bitcoin’s predictable and mathematically defined monetary policy ahead of the next halving expected around 2028.
#BTC

Grayscale’s Bitcoin Holdings Decline Amid ETF Approval

Grayscale’s Bitcoin (BTC) holdings have declined following the approval of a Bitcoin ETF, driven by outflows from GBTC as investors take profits or rebalance portfolios, adding short-term supply pressure on BTC. In contrast, Grayscale’s Ethereum (ETH) holdings remain relatively stable, reflecting stronger investor confidence supported by ETF expectations, staking yields, and lower selling urgency. Currently, BTC appears to be in a distribution and rotation phase, while ETH is in a holding and positioning phase, with Grayscale viewing ETH as the next asymmetric opportunity.
#BTC #etf #ETH

Binance Announcement Summary: FXS → FRAX

Binance will support the Frax Share (FXS) mainnet swap and rebranding to Frax (FRAX). All technical processes will be handled by Binance.

Key Points

Token Swap: 1 FXS = 1 FRAX

Ticker Change: FXS will be rebranded as FRAX

Spot Trading

Jan 13, 2026, 03:00 UTC: All FXS spot pairs (e.g., FXS/USDT) removed; open orders canceled

Jan 15, 2026, 08:00 UTC: FRAX/USDT trading opens

Deposits & Withdrawals

Jan 13, 2026, 03:30 UTC: FXS deposits/withdrawals suspended

Jan 15, 2026, 07:00 UTC: FRAX deposits open

FXS withdrawals will no longer be supported after completion

Futures & Margin

FXS futures contracts will be settled and delisted starting Jan 6, 2026

Margin, Loans, Simple Earn, Pay, Convert, Gift Cards, and other services will progressively cease FXS support before the swap

Users are advised to close positions, cancel orders, and update bots or portfolios ahead of the deadlines to avoid losses.
#FXS

$BTC ETFs See $825M Outflows as U.S. Investors Lead Selling

Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded $825.7 million in net outflows over five consecutive sessions, including $175.3 million on Christmas Eve, according to Farside Investors. The selling has been led by U.S. institutions, reflected in a persistently negative Coinbase Premium Index, while Asian markets show stronger buying interest.

Analysts attribute the weakness to year-end tax-loss harvesting and quarterly options expiry, viewing the pressure as seasonal rather than structural. Ether ETFs have also seen muted flows, with both BTC and ETH ETFs posting negative 30-day netflows.

Market participants expect ETF flows to stabilize and potentially turn positive after the holidays, as tax and derivatives-related pressures fade—setting the stage for renewed institutional demand in early 2026.
#BTC #ETH

Crypto News Today — Short Brief

Global crypto derivatives hit a record $85.7T in 2025, averaging $265B daily, highlighting rapid institutionalization, per CoinGlass.

Binance led the market, handling $25.09T in volume—nearly 30% of global derivatives trading—cementing its role as the main liquidity hub.

Market concentration remains high, with the top exchanges controlling over 62% of total volume.

Institutional activity surged, driven by spot ETFs, options, and regulated futures, boosting venues like CME, which strengthened its dominance in Bitcoin futures.

Systemic risk increased: open interest swung sharply, peaking at $235.9B before major deleveraging events.

2025 liquidations totaled ~$150B, with a severe October sell-off exposing leverage and cross-market contagion risks.

Outlook 2026: Crypto derivatives are larger and more mature—but rising leverage and tighter market linkages mean higher stakes and greater fragility going forward.
#etf #BTC

Crypto Sentiment Remains in Extreme Fear Despite Bitcoin Near $90K

Crypto market sentiment has stayed in “extreme fear” for 14 consecutive days, with the Fear & Greed Index at 20/100 on Dec. 26—one of its longest such stretches, and weaker than during the FTX collapse in 2022. This comes even as Bitcoin trades around $88,650, roughly five times higher than FTX-era levels and only ~30% below its all-time high.

Macro uncertainty continues to weigh on confidence, including U.S.–China tariff concerns and fears the Federal Reserve may pause rate cuts in early 2026. Retail participation is fading, with on-chain data showing sharp declines in search interest and social activity.

In contrast, institutional and traditional finance investors remain active. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $25 billion in net inflows in 2025, highlighting a clear divergence between professional capital and retail sentiment.

Historically, prolonged extreme fear has often been a contrarian signal, though analysts warn macro risks and low year-end liquidity could keep volatility elevated in the near term.
#BTC #ETFs

Ethereum Supply Increases by 18,614 ETH Over Past Week

According to BlockBeats, data from Ultrasound.money indicates that Ethereum's net supply has increased by 18,614 ETH over the past seven days. The total supply of Ethereum now stands at 121,318,655 ETH, with a current annual growth rate of 0.8%.
#ETH

$BTC Whale Increases $SOL Holdings Amid Market Activity

According to BlockBeats, on-chain analyst Ai Yi has reported that a prominent Bitcoin insider whale has recently increased their holdings by acquiring 207,316.32 SOL, valued at $25.498 million. Additionally, the whale has placed a limit buy order for 2,683.68 SOL within the price range of $122.74 to $123.01.

The current value of the SOL position stands at $63.06 million, while the total portfolio value is $754 million. The portfolio has experienced an unrealized loss of $43.32 million, primarily due to a $37.33 million loss in $ETH Ethereum holdings.
#BTC #ETH #sol

PAXG Transfer from Null Address to Paxos Reported

According to ChainCatcher, Arkham data indicates that at 02:09, a total of 3,227.41 PAXG was transferred from a Null Address to Paxos.
#PAXG