Dulcie Surdam CfWM

What happened in Venezuela today isn’t really about Maduro — it’s about China. Here’s the bigger picture:
Venezuela sits on the largest proven crude oil reserves globally, roughly 303 billion barrels.
China is Venezuela’s top customer, buying around 80–85% of its crude exports.
With recent actions in Venezuela, U.S. influence over Venezuelan oil assets is set to rise, and that directly undermines China’s energy access.
And this didn’t start today.
The U.S. has been actively working to cut off China’s access to cheap oil:
In 2025, Washington ramped up pressure on Iran — another country where China is the largest oil buyer.
Maduro’s departure, according to the opposition, was negotiated, not sudden.
The timing is critical: the operation occurred exactly as Chinese officials arrived in Venezuela for talks.
Now attention shifts to China’s response.
From January 2026, China has already restricted silver exports.
That raises the possibility that Venezuelan oil becomes a bargaining chip in broader U.S.–China negotiations.
If talks fail and China retaliates, we could see a repeat of the volatility from Q1 2025.
All eyes on Beijing. 👀
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$XPL

Oil traders are on high alert. Reports just surfaced that the U.S. has captured Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro — and that puts the spotlight on a country holding the largest proven oil reserves in the world (300B+ barrels). Any instability there could seriously disrupt global supply and push prices higher.
This goes beyond headlines — it’s pure economics. Venezuela’s heavy crude is critical for many refineries, with exports tied to major players like the U.S. and China. Uncertainty around production, logistics, and exports could trigger sharp volatility, tighter supply, and higher fuel costs worldwide.
Bottom line: If this development gives the U.S. greater leverage over Venezuela’s oil, it also escalates geopolitical risk. Energy markets are moving fast, volatility is rising, and reactions could be swift. Stay sharp.
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Trump just made a major statement on Venezuela’s oil — saying the U.S. will be “very much involved” in its oil industry going forward. China can still buy Venezuelan crude, but the U.S. is opening access to more global buyers.
This is a big deal. Venezuela holds one of the largest oil reserves on the planet, and increased U.S. involvement could reshape global energy flows, impact oil prices, and intensify the U.S.–China power struggle.
Why markets should care 👇
U.S. entry could stabilize supply — or trigger disruptions if tensions rise
Oil price volatility likely ahead
Ripple effects across energy stocks, commodities, and currencies
Bottom line:
This isn’t just geopolitics — it’s a real market catalyst that could move oil and global trade in a big way. Stay alert. 🚀
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The next 72 hours may reshape the global balance of power.
If Washington manages to steer Venezuela’s political direction—and gain indirect control over the world’s largest proven oil reserves—it would mark a major geopolitical realignment. This wouldn’t be about democracy or humanitarian goals, but about energy dominance and strategic leverage.
Access to Venezuelan crude would sharply reduce U.S. dependence on Middle Eastern supply. In that context, Iran becomes the main pressure point. With heavy crude secured in the Western Hemisphere, the U.S. could better withstand disruptions in Gulf energy infrastructure, lowering the economic cost of any prolonged escalation.
Beyond supply security, this would expand America’s influence over global oil flows and pricing, reinforce the dollar’s role in energy trade, and help preserve the petrodollar system that underpins U.S. financial power.
Energy isn’t just fuel — it’s leverage.
Markets shouldn’t ignore what’s at stake.
👀 Watching closely:
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The Fed has discreetly injected another $19.5B into the U.S. banking system via overnight repo operations.
On the surface?
😌 Markets look stable.
Beneath the surface?
💥 Liquidity is surging, creating strong tailwinds for risk assets.
📊 Market reaction today: $PIEVERSE
$BTC
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You’ve probably seen the narrative spreading fast:
“$6.6T balance sheet = rate cuts coming = crypto to the moon 🚀”
Let’s pause and separate signal from noise.
📅 What’s really happening?
The Fed publishes its H.4.1 balance sheet report every Thursday at 4:30 PM ET.
This is the first release of 2026, so heightened attention is expected.
📊 About the $6.6T ‘magic number’
There is no official Fed threshold that automatically triggers rate cuts.
The balance sheet has been fluctuating roughly between $6.56T and $6.64T.
What it actually implies:
• Above ~$6.6T → liquidity conditions remain relatively comfortable
• Below ~$6.5T → liquidity may be tightening too quickly, increasing pressure to slow QT or adjust policy
That said, rate decisions are still driven primarily by inflation and labor data, not a single balance sheet level.
₿ Does this matter for crypto?
Yes — and this part is important.
Crypto markets are highly sensitive to USD liquidity:
• Higher liquidity → Risk-on environment → BTC tailwind 📈
• Lower liquidity → Risk-off conditions → BTC headwinds 📉
That’s why traders track this report every week.
🔥 Why the hype right now
Markets are eager for any justification to front-run a January rate cut.
If reserves drop sharply, social media will quickly jump to “FED HAS TO CUT,” even if that conclusion is premature.
🧠 Smart trader takeaway
The data matters — but it’s one input, not a guarantee.
Focus on liquidity trends, not viral headlines.
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