Yesterday the market demonstrated a nearly classic market maker model:
liquidity removal from above → aggressive sell-off → return to range.
Now we see the redistribution phase.
📊 $BTC — $68 401
Maximum: 70 108, minimum: 67 249
🧠 What happened structurally
Breaking 70k → removing short stop losses
Sharp drop to 67 249 → stopping out longs
Return to the middle of the range
This is a classic two-sided cleanout.
The price is again within the key range: 67 200 – 70 000
🎯 Where liquidity is now
Above:
69 800 – 70 200
70 500
Below:
67 200
66 800
65 500 (larger range)
🧩 Market maker logic at the moment
After the double liquidity gathering, the task is to choose a side for the impulse.
Currently most likely:
🔴 Scenario 1 — Liquidity accumulation from below (55%)
The price can:
retest 67 200 again
make a spike to 66 800
collect stops
and only then reverse
This makes sense because liquidity is tighter below.
🔵 Scenario 2 — Compression and retest of 70k (35%)
If 68 000 holds and forms a higher low on smaller TFs — the market may slowly return to 69 800.
But without strong volume, a retest of 70k will be vulnerable.
⚡️ Unlikely scenario (10%)
Sharp upward impulse with a short squeeze to 71 500+ For this, aggressive accumulation below 68k is needed.
📊 $ETH — $1 988
Maximum: 2 022, minimum: 1 936
ETH is holding relatively stronger than BTC again.
Key zone: 1 960 – 1 970
As long as it is above — the structure is neutrally bullish within the range.
If ETH holds 1 970
Probable retest:
2 020
2 050
If it loses 1 950
Opening the way to:
1 900
1 860
📈 Probabilistic model for today
BTC:
55% — retest 67k
30% — move to 69.8k
15% — impulse above 70.5k
ETH:
50% — retest 1 960
35% — growth to 2 020
15% — impulse above 2 050
⚙️ Day trading tactics
Mid-range (68 000–68 800) — noise zone.
Working points:
Long — at reaction from 67 200
Short — at weakness around 69 800
🔎 Key conclusion
The market maker has already gathered liquidity from both sides. The next impulse will be directed and stronger than previous moves.
The market is currently compressing before choosing a direction.
#daytrading #BTC