The pressure of China's national debt to repay principal and interest is increasing, when will it collapse?

By the end of 2025, China's total social debt has reached approximately 52.68 trillion yuan. Converted to per capita, it is about 375,000 yuan.

First, let's look at the fiscal revenue and expenditure gap.

In 2025, the national general public budget revenue is expected to be 21,604.5 billion, and expenditure 28,739.5 billion.

So the deficit for that year is:
28,739.5 − 21,604.5 = 7,135 billion

This deficit accounts for the proportion of revenue:
7,135 ÷ 21,604.5 ≈ 33% (which is 1/3 of the revenue)

At the same time, it also accounts for 5% of the expected GDP for 2025 (140 trillion).

This 7.14 trillion gap will basically have to be filled by issuing government bonds.

Next, let's look at the stock of government bonds and interest pressure.

According to the central bank's official website data, the balance of government bonds is expected to reach 95.44 trillion by the end of 2025.

If estimated at an average interest rate of 3.5%, the interest expenditure on government bonds for that year will be:
95.44 trillion × 3.5% = 3.34 trillion

This interest scale accounts for the proportion of fiscal revenue:
3.34 trillion ÷ 21.6 trillion ≈ 15.5%

In other words, for every 6 yuan of fiscal revenue, nearly 1 yuan is used for interest payments.

More critically, it accounts for the proportion of the new deficit for that year (7.14 trillion):
3.34 trillion ÷ 7.14 trillion ≈ 46.8%

In other words, nearly half of the borrowed money that year is actually consumed by interest.

Finally, let's look at the dynamic circulation of debt.
By the end of 2024, the balance of government bonds is 81.58 trillion, and it is expected to increase to 95.44 trillion in 2025, a net increase of:
95.44 − 81.58 = 13.86 trillion

However, the total issuance of government bonds for the entire year of 2025 is 26.3 trillion. The flow of this needs to be broken down:

· Used to repay maturing principal (borrowing new to repay old): 26.3 − 13.86 = 12.44 trillion
· Used to pay interest for the year: 3.44 trillion
· After deducting the repayment of principal and interest, the actual amount available for new spending is:
26.3 − 12.44 − 3.44 = 10.42 trillion

It can be seen that a considerable part of the huge government bonds issued each year is used to "extend the life" of existing debt.

In addition, we need to pay attention to the broader debt.
Currently, private debt outside of China's national debt (households + enterprises) is about 370 trillion.

Including government bonds, the total debt scale approaches 470 trillion. This does not include some hidden debts that are not included in the official statistics.