"This downward trend has not yet ended" should be the overall consensus in the market regarding BTC. Before clear multiple signals appear, any price surge can only be viewed as a "bounce."

According to on-chain data, the average cost for current short-term holders (STH) is $89,000. Since the drop on January 14, BTC has not yet made an attempt towards this target. This also indirectly reflects the weakness of the market.

(Figure 1: Average cost at different holding times)

Clearly, it is quite difficult to break through here (to let STH break even) in the short term. Among this group, the cost of holding ultra-short-term chips of 10k-1m is closest to the current BTC price — $72,000; currently holding a total of 598,000 BTC.

This will be the first major resistance on the way of this rebound!

From past data, whenever the 'bear market sentiment' dominates, BTC's downward retracement is almost always centered around this line. In simpler terms, it means that the rebound can exceed this line, but as positions are unwound and selling pressure increases, it will drop back down.

(Figure 2: Holdings of different coin-holding groups)

At the same time, just above it, around $78,000, is exactly the average turnover cost for long-term holders (LTH) holding for 1-2 years, currently holding a total of 2,557,000 BTC; this scale is much larger than the aforementioned group holding 10,000-1,000,000.

Although this also includes many long-term positions bought by institutions a year ago. But without a doubt, the resistance at $78,000 is definitely greater than at $72,000.

For those who have already heavily invested and are looking to average down their costs during this correction, should they consider reducing their positions moderately when approaching sensitive levels? This requires careful consideration.

However, for those who are currently only lightly establishing long-term positions, I personally believe they can ignore such short-term fluctuations and wait for the opportunity to increase their positions. Patience is your most important chip for betting on the future.

(To avoid unnecessary misunderstandings, it needs to be emphasized: the data I share does not necessarily mean it will 'rebound to' or 'will not reach.' It is just an additional reference from a different perspective on the trading level, apart from K-lines. If it does not reach, it can only be said that the market is weaker than we imagined, and we should be better prepared for the subsequent responses.)