April 9 BTC Trend Judgment and Trading Strategy🚀
BTC is oscillating between 70500-72800, down about 53% from the ATH of 126k in October 2025. It is building a base in the 66k-75k range.
Market Situation:
① ETF fund flows are strong, with a net inflow of $471 million on April 6, totaling over $53 billion in inflows, as institutions continue to accumulate.
② On-chain: exchange reserves are decreasing, long-term holders are stable, and whales are accumulating noticeably (Figure 1).
③ Trading volume is recovering, but geopolitical events suppress short-term sentiment.
Personal Macro + Technical Forecast (DYOR):
Short-term (April-May):
Likely to oscillate in the 66k-75k range.
Catalysts: Ceasefire implementation + oil price decline + April CPI data.
Medium-term (Q2-Q3):
Bullish main trend, target 90k-100k+.
Reason: Continuous ETF inflows, institutional rotation, and patterns in the second half of the halving cycle.
Maximum Downside 📉 Risk:
Geopolitical escalation leading to a spike in oil prices → drop below 65k, but strong support near 60k.
Upside 📈 Catalysts:
DXY weakening + oil price decline → rapid rebound.
K-line Technical Analysis:
Weekly: The overall strategy remains unchanged, still focusing on wide-range oscillations, with the oscillation range between 62900~74600. Patience is needed to wait for the MACD golden cross; after the golden cross, watch for the fast and slow lines to oscillate and rebound around the zero axis before monitoring the weekly level for a potential downward move.
Daily: From a technical perspective, this position has not yet adjusted properly and will continue to oscillate with slight upward movement. The current oscillation range is between 69900~72700, and it is also facing resistance from the daily downtrend line.
4H: As long as it does not fall below 69900, a rebound is still expected. The upper resistance to watch is 72700; can it hold this position? If it holds, it will move towards 74600.
1H, 15min: Attention should be paid to these two smaller levels of resistance. As long as it does not hold above 72700, watch for a pullback towards the 69900 position, because currently, even if there is a rebound at the 1-hour level, it is likely to form a divergence risk.
In summary: The weekly level is mainly focused on wide-ranging oscillations. Currently, the daily level has not yet adjusted properly, and attention should be paid to the small-level pullback support at 69900.
🌞 If anyone has better insights, feel free to communicate and correct in the comments!
$BTC
#币安人生
BTC is oscillating between 70500-72800, down about 53% from the ATH of 126k in October 2025. It is building a base in the 66k-75k range.
Market Situation:
① ETF fund flows are strong, with a net inflow of $471 million on April 6, totaling over $53 billion in inflows, as institutions continue to accumulate.
② On-chain: exchange reserves are decreasing, long-term holders are stable, and whales are accumulating noticeably (Figure 1).
③ Trading volume is recovering, but geopolitical events suppress short-term sentiment.
Personal Macro + Technical Forecast (DYOR):
Short-term (April-May):
Likely to oscillate in the 66k-75k range.
Catalysts: Ceasefire implementation + oil price decline + April CPI data.
Medium-term (Q2-Q3):
Bullish main trend, target 90k-100k+.
Reason: Continuous ETF inflows, institutional rotation, and patterns in the second half of the halving cycle.
Maximum Downside 📉 Risk:
Geopolitical escalation leading to a spike in oil prices → drop below 65k, but strong support near 60k.
Upside 📈 Catalysts:
DXY weakening + oil price decline → rapid rebound.
K-line Technical Analysis:
Weekly: The overall strategy remains unchanged, still focusing on wide-range oscillations, with the oscillation range between 62900~74600. Patience is needed to wait for the MACD golden cross; after the golden cross, watch for the fast and slow lines to oscillate and rebound around the zero axis before monitoring the weekly level for a potential downward move.
Daily: From a technical perspective, this position has not yet adjusted properly and will continue to oscillate with slight upward movement. The current oscillation range is between 69900~72700, and it is also facing resistance from the daily downtrend line.
4H: As long as it does not fall below 69900, a rebound is still expected. The upper resistance to watch is 72700; can it hold this position? If it holds, it will move towards 74600.
1H, 15min: Attention should be paid to these two smaller levels of resistance. As long as it does not hold above 72700, watch for a pullback towards the 69900 position, because currently, even if there is a rebound at the 1-hour level, it is likely to form a divergence risk.
In summary: The weekly level is mainly focused on wide-ranging oscillations. Currently, the daily level has not yet adjusted properly, and attention should be paid to the small-level pullback support at 69900.
🌞 If anyone has better insights, feel free to communicate and correct in the comments!
$BTC
#币安人生