Crypto_心诚

In the next bull market, which public chain (ETH, SOL, BNB, SUI) do you think can outperform BTC's increase?

Market capitalization comparison:
BTC: Market cap approximately $1.43 trillion
ETH: Market cap approximately $254 billion
BNB: Market cap approximately $89.9 billion
SOL: Market cap approximately $50.5 billion
SUI: Market cap only approximately $3.97 billion

TVL and ecological growth comparison:
ETH TVL $57.9 billion
SOL $7.1 billion (7 days +11.47%)
BNB Chain $5.88 billion
SUI $620 million (7 days +10.86%)

Summary: SUI has greater potential
Because SUI has the smallest market cap, only about 8% of SOL and about 1.5% of ETH, low market cap L1s usually achieve the highest multiple increases in a bull market. The rapid growth of TVL for SUI and SOL indicates that developers/funds are flowing into high-performance chains, while ETH/BNB are more "stable but slow." As an emerging L1, SUI is quickly closing the gap.

Reasons:
① Low market cap + high elasticity (highest multiple potential)
If BTC rises to $150k-$200k (approximately 2-3x), SUI only needs to return to historical highs or higher (analysts predict it could be 3-5x or even higher by 2026), easily surpassing BTC's increase.
② Technical advantages and narrative
Sui uses the Move language (high security, vulnerability-resistant), parallel execution + high TPS (tested over 500+, theoretically tens of thousands), and is seen as the "next generation Solana." It attracts developers in DeFi, gaming, stablecoins, etc., and has clear "high-performance public chain" beta attributes compared to BTC (value storage).
③ Bull market rotation logic
Currently, BTC is highly dominant, and altseason has not fully started (similar to late 2025). In the late stages of historical bull markets, funds flow from BTC to mature L1s (ETH/SOL) to emerging high-growth L1s (SUI similar to SOL in 2021). If 2026 enters altseason or liquidity rotation, chains like SUI, which have a small market cap and strong narratives, will benefit the most.

The next bull market (possibly a continuation in 2026 or a new cycle in 2028) depends on macro factors (Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, regulation), and BTC dominance decline, etc.

$SUI
$SOL
#ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

3.16 BTC, ETH Weekly Review

BTC
The Bitcoin weekly chart has closed with a large bullish candle, recovering the losses from the previous four weeks. During this time, I've been mentioning this level, and from various indicators, there are opportunities for phased investments. Currently, the daily level has reached a critical line for bulls and bears, and the strong resistance at this position is around 73500. As long as this level can be maintained, and the fast and slow lines can stand above the zero axis, it means there is still room for movement. The key areas to watch for a breakout of 73500 are between 78500 and 81000.
Summary: All cycles below the daily level are in the bullish territory, so the key point to watch is the changes in the daily level market. In summary, as long as this position does not break 70800, we still look toward an upward rebound.

ETH
Ethereum's level has also engulfed the losses from the previous four weeks, and this position is still a rebound after an oversold condition. Currently, from the daily level, it has broken through the neckline near 2130, so the next opportunity is the pullback to 2130. From the current market situation, the direction is still upward, and the focus should still be on the daily level to see if it can continue the bullish trend. If the fast and slow lines stand above the zero axis, we can pay attention to the upper range of 2350-2600.
Summary: As long as 2130 is not broken, we still look for a rebound.

#美国PCE数据将公布 #比特币升回7万 $BTC
$ETH

This week (3.16-3.22) major events:

Seven major central banks successively announced interest rate decisions

On Tuesday at 11:30, the Reserve Bank of Australia announced its interest rate decision;

On Wednesday at 21:45, the Bank of Canada announced its interest rate decision;

On Thursday (exact time to be determined), the Bank of Japan announced its interest rate decision;

On Thursday at 16:30, the Swiss National Bank announced its interest rate decision;

On Thursday at 02:00, the Federal Reserve FOMC announced its interest rate decision and economic outlook summary; On Thursday at 02:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell held a monetary policy press conference.

On Thursday at 20:00, the Bank of England announced its interest rate decision and meeting minutes;

On Thursday at 21:15, the European Central Bank announced its interest rate decision.

March 18

The United States will announce February PPI data on March 18;

Others (time to be determined)

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority may release the list of stablecoin licenses as early as next week, with Standard Chartered, HSBC, and OSL expected to be shortlisted.

#比特币升回7万 #美联储降息周期 $BTC

Is it possible to go all in on Bitcoin right now?

Refer to the following two indicators:
① Two-Year MA Multiplier Indicator
When the price drops below the two-year moving average (green), it is a signal to buy at the bottom, and purchasing Bitcoin will yield excess returns.
When the price exceeds the two-year moving average X5 (red line), it is a signal to sell at the top, and selling Bitcoin will result in significant profits.

Currently, the price of Bitcoin has fallen below the green line, indicating that the current price is cost-effective and worth dollar-cost averaging.

② 200-Week Moving Average Heatmap
This indicator uses a color-coded heatmap based on the percentage growth of the 200-week moving average.

Historically, when we see orange and red dots allocated to the price chart, it is a good time to sell Bitcoin due to market overheating. Price points that are purple and close to the 200-week MA have always been a good time to buy.

Summary: Based on the above two indicators for buying at the bottom and selling at the top, the current price presents opportunities for dollar-cost averaging. Therefore, a good dollar-cost averaging strategy can be developed, and the rest can be left to time! In the next section, I will provide a Bitcoin dollar-cost averaging strategy suggestion for reference.

#比特币升回7万 #抄底最佳时机 $BTC

AI shrimp farming is on fire, is 2026 really the year of the Agent?

The year 2026 is indeed referred to by many as the "year of the Agent," and the phenomenon of "AI shrimp farming" is the most vivid folk annotation of this year.

In simple terms, "shrimp farming" refers to deploying and using the open-source AI agent OpenClaw. Netizens humorously call the entire process of "installing → training → feeding prompts → letting it work on its own" as "shrimp farming."

Why has it suddenly become so popular? The core reason is one sentence:
AI has evolved from "being able to chat" to "actually able to work."

Previously, ChatGPT/DeepSeek was "talkative"; when you asked it to do something, it could only respond. Agents like OpenClaw are "hands-on"; if given computer/mobile permissions, they can break down tasks, call tools, operate across software, correct errors in cycles, and work 24 hours without sleep.

Currently, it looks like a stage of the beginning of an era, but it is not yet the ultimate era.
Reasons why:
The technological closed loop has truly run for the first time (perception → planning → execution → memory → reflection)
Open source + big companies driving together, lowering the threshold from extremely high to "a bit competitive but accessible"
Social emotions have been completely ignited (FOMO + productivity fantasies + fear of falling behind)
Policy, capital, giants, developers, and ordinary people are resonating together

Reasons against:
The security risks are extremely high (too much permission, easy to be overridden/induced, data leaks), the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a warning, and many institutions/universities advise against reckless farming.
Stability is still lacking (success rates for complex tasks are not high, tokens burn money quickly, cases of hallucinations + loss of control are frequent)
Currently more in the stage of "showing off skills + productivity toys," true enterprise-level, indispensable deep integration has not yet occurred on a large scale.
There have already been quite a few incidents (misdeleted files, reckless spending, getting hacked, the trend of uninstallation has begun to appear)

In summary:
2026 is the starting point and explosive year of the "Agent era," but it is still 2–4 years away from a mature, reliable, and trustworthy "Agent age."

Now is the "frenzied experimental period" + "infrastructure competition period," just like smartphones in 2010—everyone is rushing to raise the first batch of "shrimp," but what truly changes the world are those companies and individuals who turn shrimp into "reliable employees."

#龙虾 $龙虾

March 19
02:00 Federal Reserve announces interest rate decision

02:30 Powell holds monetary policy press conference;

20:30 Initial unemployment claims in the U.S. for the week ending March 14;

#降息预期 $BTC

$HYPE as the leader of DEX has completed its mission in the current bear market stage, rising from $21 to $38, an increase of 85%, outpacing 99% of tokens.

ASTR, with its strong background, pales in comparison, currently hovering around 0.7, and is now experiencing narrow fluctuations between 0.68 and 0.75. Various levels of candlesticks have almost been repaired, and this position can be used with a small stop loss to seek upward space. The stop loss should be placed at 0.68; if it breaks and retraces, exit. The upper level focuses on whether 0.75 can break through. If it breaks through, pay attention to the resistance range of 0.82-0.91.

#hype and #aster the core difference lies in:
① HYPE is a “single-chain performance monster” (fully transparent on-chain + ultra-fast), HYPE is more like a CEX-level trading machine.
② ASTR is a “multi-chain privacy + functional innovator” (hidden orders to prevent front-running + soon to have its own L1), ASTR focuses more on user privacy and cross-chain flexibility.

#DEX

March 9

The Iran conflict has entered its second week, continuing to affect the global situation;

SharpLink will hold its 2025 earnings call on March 9;

March 11

The United States will release the February CPI data on March 11;

March 13

The United States will release the January PCE data on March 13;

#亚洲股市暴跌 #伊朗新领袖 $BTC

The probability of the Federal Reserve not cutting interest rates in March has directly reached 99.5%

High interest rates have been suppressed for so long, the panic, selling pressure, and high leverage have mostly cleared away

It has been fluctuating for more than a month now, it's time to release, when the bad news is all out, it becomes good news, patiently holding low-priced chips, patiently investing regularly

Victory belongs to us

#BTC $BTC

#美以袭击伊朗

Will international wars cause BTC to drop to 38000?

Historical and recent real cases show a consistent pattern:

Short-term: Risk assets are sold off broadly, and BTC often follows the stock market, dropping under leverage liquidation. On the day/week the Russia-Ukraine conflict started in 2022, it dropped sharply by 10–15%, and similar flash crashes of 7–10% occurred during the Iran-related conflicts in 2025–2026.

Mid-term (weeks to months): Two possible paths
① If the war escalates quickly, oil prices skyrocket, inflation expectations spiral out of control, and liquidity tightens → BTC may continue to follow risk assets downward, with declines expanding to 30–60%, which has historical precedents (for example, the overall bear market in 2022 dropped from over 60,000 to 16,000).
② If the war is seen as "locally controllable" or stimulates safe-haven demand (sanctions, capital controls, currency devaluation expectations) → BTC may instead rebound, even rising by 30–50% or more. After the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in 2022, BTC rose by about 37% in a month; many conflicts have shown "war premiums" early on.

To drop to 38k, several conditions need to occur simultaneously:

1. The scale of the war is very large (multiple countries directly involved, severe disruption to supply chains/energy)

2. The Federal Reserve/global central banks are forced to tighten significantly in response to rampant inflation

3. The stock market and risk assets experience a collapse similar to that of 2022

4. Crypto leverage is not rapidly unwound (current contract holdings and liquidation data have not yet reached extreme panic levels)

However, if it is only a "localized hot war" (for example, the current Middle East conflict expands but does not affect the Taiwan Strait/European front), historically, BTC more often experiences a V-shaped or W-shaped rebound after short-term panic, rather than a one-way plunge to 38,000.

In short: International wars are likely to hit BTC hard first (potentially quite severely), but whether it really drops to 38k in the long term depends on how large and how long the war lasts, and how global liquidity reacts**. Currently, the probability of falling below 50k is higher than directly plunging to 38k.

What do you think the current level of war risk is? We can discuss specific scenarios further.

$BTC

Market Sentiment

1. Today's Cryptocurrency Greed Index: 11 (Extreme Fear);

2. CNN Fear & Greed Index: 43 (Fear)

3. Today's CBOE Volatility Index (VIX): 20.00 (Mild Unease, up 5.00% from yesterday)

$BTC
#伊朗证实哈梅内伊已死

Market Hotspots

1. The U.S. has launched a large-scale strike against Iran, killing the supreme leader, which has triggered retaliation. The impact analysis indicates that Middle Eastern geopolitical risks are supporting oil prices and safe-haven demand for precious metals. The focus is on the duration of the conflict and the potential long-term disruption of the Strait of Hormuz;

2. On the previous trading day, the three major U.S. stock indices fell together, affected by rising PPI inflation, a credit crisis, and the dangers of the U.S.-Iran war;

3. The U.S. dollar index strengthened alongside fluctuations in non-U.S. currencies. The impact analysis indicates an intertwining of declining risk appetite and inflows into safe-haven assets, with the focus on signals from the Federal Reserve's policy;

4. The rise in the VIX index reflects an increase in market panic, with the impact analysis indicating adjustments in leveraged positions and heightened uncertainty, focusing on upcoming economic data and geopolitical developments;

#伊朗证实哈梅内伊已死 #美以袭击伊朗 $BTC

Major Events This Week

Whole Week
Iran Situation Escalates, Global Markets Focus on the Middle East

March 6
US February Non-Farm Payroll Data to be Released on March 6
21:30, the US will announce February Unemployment Rate, February Seasonally Adjusted Non-Farm Employment, and January Retail Sales Month-on-Month Data

Tuesday 22:55, FOMC Permanent Voting Member and New York Fed President Williams will give a speech;

Wednesday 00:55, 2026 FOMC Voting Member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will give a speech;

Thursday 03:00, the Federal Reserve will release the Beige Book on Economic Conditions.

#伊朗证实哈梅内伊已死 #美以袭击伊朗 $BTC

#黄金 #BTC
As a digital gold, why does Bitcoin's trend run counter to that of gold?

1. Differences in liquidity and "ATM attributes" (the core reason)

Gold: Low holding costs (storage fees, insurance), liquidity tends to improve during crises (institutions, central banks, and central bank reserves buy directly). During a crisis, people do not sell gold but rather buy more.

Bitcoin: 24/7 trading, high leverage, extremely high liquidity → has become the world's first "immediately convertible" high-risk asset.

2. Completely different risk attributes (high β vs low β)

Gold: Low volatility, counter-cyclical, recognized by central banks, consensus built over thousands of years → a true safe-haven asset (purchased during risk-off periods).

Bitcoin: High volatility, often correlated with Nasdaq/tech stocks at 0.6-0.8 → a high beta risk asset (similar to growth stocks).

3. Differences in holder structure and behavior

Gold holders: Sovereign funds, central banks, families preserving long-term wealth, long-term ETF holders → tend to increase positions during crises.

Bitcoin holders: Many leveraged players, short-term speculators, crypto-native funds → tend to quickly close positions, stop losses, and deleverage during panic.

4. Misalignment of time dimensions and narratives

Short-term (days to months): Gold excels at addressing "sudden, episodic, reversible" crises (such as localized wars, tariff threats).

Long-term (years to decades): Bitcoin is more suitable for hedging against "slow variables, systemic trust collapse" (sustained monetary overexpansion, long-term decline in fiat currency credit, deep stages of global de-dollarization).

5. The real choices of institutions and sovereign funds

In 2025, the central bank purchased 863 tons of gold, and accelerated further at the beginning of 2026; no sovereign fund or major central bank has included Bitcoin in their reserves.

When it really comes to needing "life-saving money," institutions still choose gold → this is more convincing than any theory.

Summary: Bitcoin, as a completely digital asset (without physical form, no intrinsic industrial use, primarily supported by consensus and network effects), is theoretically referred to by many as "digital gold," but resembles digital Nasdaq more—high risk appetite, extremely strong liquidity, narrative-driven, and highly cyclical.

$BTC
$XAU

#美以袭击伊朗 Why is the cryptocurrency market so volatile?

Today's relationship explosion caused the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies to drop from about $2.24 trillion to around $2.17 trillion, evaporating $70-128 billion in a short time.

① Risk aversion dominates: Cryptocurrencies are seen as high-risk assets (similar to tech stocks), rather than a safe-haven asset like "digital gold." Investors prioritize reducing holdings in volatile varieties in times of uncertainty, turning to cash or traditional safe-haven assets.

② Weekend amplification effect: U.S. stocks and oil markets are closed, and 24/7 cryptocurrency trading becomes the only liquid outlet, with panic selling occurring without a buffer.

③ Weakness in the leveraged market: High-leverage positions are rapidly liquidated, creating a chain reaction.

④ Long-term trend of Bitcoin adds to the situation: It has been declining for several consecutive months, and this is an additional blow.

This time, Bitcoin has not demonstrated safe-haven properties (in contrast to gold), but has instead followed risk assets downwards, which is also a point of repeated discussion in the market recently.

#美以袭击伊朗 #Anthropic美国政府争议 $NVDAon

2.28 BTC Evening Analysis

A few days ago, I mentioned to everyone that the support at 62900 would lead to a rebound, and it reached 69700 before retreating. It is now back around 62900. At this level, we can see that the market is still very weak. Coupled with macroeconomic news and global turmoil, this has brought a lot of uncertainty to the financial markets. Currently, this position at 62900 is the defensive position for this market segment. If this level is breached, it is highly likely that 60000 may not hold, and it will likely move towards around 55500. Therefore, the market has been primarily consolidating in the past few days, and there will be a lot of news next week. So, in the short term, patience in waiting for opportunities will still be mainly focused on consolidation.
Support 62900-60000
Resistance 65100-66300

#BTC $BTC

At this moment, an explosion occurred in Tehran, the capital of Iran.

Israel fired the first shot, launching a preemptive strike against Iran.

If you want to fight, then fight, why does my account have to shrink?

#Anthropic美国政府争议 #特朗普发表国情咨文 $BTC

2.26 ETH Market Analysis

The idea provided for Ethereum yesterday was that as long as it doesn't break 1800, we would look for a rebound. Yesterday, there was also a large bullish candle that reached the equilibrium. Currently, we still need to pay attention to the 12-hour level at this position, whether it can show strength after the divergence. At the same time, we need to observe if the fast and slow lines on the 4-hour level can stay above the zero axis. The most important resistance above is at 2130, which is the upper boundary of the range. As long as it can stabilize at this position, it can open up space above. Currently, we need to pay attention to the adjustment at this position on the 1-hour level, so in summary, the main focus for intraday will be on pullbacks, with key support near 2000. As long as it doesn't break 2000, it will still have a second rebound.
Support:2000-1920
Resistance:2130-2250

#V神卖币 #ETH走势分析 $ETH
$AAPLon

2.26 BTC Market Analysis

In the past few days, the thought process has been that as long as we do not break 63000, we will look for a rebound. According to our expectations, a rebound has occurred. Yesterday, I also shared my thoughts on paying attention to the rebound after a divergence on the 12-hour chart. Currently, the divergence has formed, so we can see that the overall direction has not fully rebounded. Today, we need to pay attention to a very important level at the one-hour level. At the moment, after breaking through 66400, a corresponding resistance has formed at the previous resistance of 69800, leading to a pullback. Therefore, we need to keep an eye on 66400 today; as long as it does not break below this level, there is still room for movement. In summary, today will see fluctuations and pullbacks. As long as the key levels are not broken, there will still be a rebound, with support at 66400-64300 and resistance at 69700-71600.

#比特币2026年价格预测 $BTC
$NVDAon

WEB 4.0 Illustrated Edition

#WEB4