Crypto_心诚

1.28

January 29 (Thursday) 3:00, the Federal Reserve FOMC will announce the interest rate decision; afterwards at 3:30, Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference. It is highly likely that Powell will maintain the status quo at 2%, looking at the data, and does not expect any changes. Moreover, it has almost been confirmed that there will not be any changes to the interest rate in January.

BTC
The idea shared yesterday was that breaking 88500 would lead to an upward continuation; currently, the market remains primarily fluctuating without a clear direction. Therefore, this position can still only be viewed as a rebound, not a reversal. What to pay attention to next is whether the four-hour level can continue and stand above the zero axis to drive the four-hour rebound. At the same time, attention should be on the one-hour level at this position, where it cannot break below 88600 to move a bit higher. Overall, as long as it doesn't break 88600 during the day, it will still fluctuate upward a bit. Additionally, focus on tonight's interest rate decision, support at 88500-87500, resistance at 89500-90500.

ETH
Ethereum is moving similarly to Bitcoin, also continuing to fluctuate around this position, with oscillations around 3000. Therefore, in the short term, the range to pay attention to is between 2900 and 3060. During the day, also pay attention to the one-hour level's pullback, which cannot break below 2955, support at 2955-2900, resistance at 3055-3125.

#美联储利率决议 $BTC

Gold and silver have firmly held the first and second positions in market value.

When can Bitcoin also take the first position in market value?

#美国伊朗对峙 #美联储利率决议 $BTC

1.27

BTC
The big pancake gave everyone the idea yesterday that it would fluctuate around 88500. After reaching the corresponding resistance yesterday, it pulled back. It has now reached the corresponding resistance. What to pay attention to in the short term is whether the divergence at this position on the four-hour level can continue and stabilize at 88500. If it cannot break through 88500 during the day, it will still fluctuate around the range of 86500 to 88500. Therefore, to summarize, what to watch for during the day is whether the one-hour level can operate above the zero axis, and pay attention to the momentum of the four-hour level returning to the zero axis, with support at 86500-85000 and resistance at 88500-90500.

ETH
Ethereum, after repeatedly testing below 2800, has rebounded once again. Thus, this position needs to be monitored for whether it can form a large-scale bottom in the short term. Meanwhile, this position also needs to pay attention to the one-hour level and the four-hour level's market situation. From the 15-minute perspective, there is a demand for a pullback at this position, and the pullback should pay attention to the 2850 position. If it does not break, there will be a continuation of the trend; if it breaks, it will return once again below 2800. Therefore, to summarize, the current market situation will still be dominated by fluctuations, with support at 2850-2800 and resistance at 2980-3050.

#美联储利率决议 #以太坊巨鲸异动 $BTC
$ETH

#美国加密市场法案延迟

The delay of the U.S. cryptocurrency market bill reflects its reality in a complex political process, but it is not the end of the legislative process.

1. Core Facts and Reasons for the Delay

· Latest Timeline: The key 'Market Structure Bill' has been postponed from its original schedule to late February or March 2026.
· Direct Resistance: The main reason for the delay is the Senate Judiciary Committee leader's opposition to the 'developer exemption' clause in the bill, fearing it could undermine investor protection.
· Political Reality: Congress needs to prioritize more urgent political agendas such as government budgeting, which compresses the space for deliberating complex cryptocurrency legislation.

2. Regulatory Dynamics During the Delay
Despite the slowdown in congressional legislation, regulatory agencies have not ceased their actions:

· Strengthened Agency Coordination: The SEC and CFTC are enhancing cooperation through new initiatives (such as the CFTC's 'Future-Proof' program) to address the legislative vacuum.
· SEC Attitude Shift: SEC's cryptocurrency enforcement actions have significantly decreased by 60% in 2025, and it plans to introduce an 'innovation exemption' policy aimed at providing temporary regulatory flexibility for compliant projects.

3. Key Milestones Outlook for 2026
2026 remains a critical year for U.S. cryptocurrency policy; in addition to the Market Structure Bill, attention should also be paid to:

· January: The SEC's 'innovation exemption' policy may be announced.
· July 18: Deadline for the release of implementation details related to the passed 'GENIUS Stablecoin Act'.
· November 3: U.S. midterm elections, the results of which may alter Congress's support landscape for cryptocurrency legislation.

In summary, the bill's delay temporarily leaves the industry without the clarity it anticipated, but it also provides regulatory agencies with space to explore rules through practice.

If you want to learn more about the aforementioned 'innovation exemption' or the 'GENIUS Stablecoin Act', I can further interpret for you.

$BTC

Grayscale's submission of the BNB ETF application, if ultimately approved, will significantly impact BNB, but the process faces enormous challenges.

Main potential impacts:

① Introduction of massive new capital: Provides a compliant channel for traditional institutional investors who cannot directly hold cryptocurrencies, potentially bringing in a large influx of new funds.
② Enhanced mainstream recognition: Gaining product endorsement from mainstream institutions like Grayscale can significantly enhance BNB's market position and public perception.
③ Consolidation of market position: As the fifth-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, the ETF will further reinforce its leading position as a 'core asset of the exchange ecosystem.'

Core challenges and risks:

① Severe regulatory obstacles: BNB is highly bound to Binance, and the SEC is likely to strictly question, or even reject the application, due to its 'platform token' nature and ongoing scrutiny of Binance.
② Submission does not equal approval: Submitting the S-1 form is only the first step in a lengthy approval process, with the final outcome and timing being highly uncertain.
③ Market reactions may be overdrawn: The current optimistic market sentiment may have partially overdrawn this good news, and delays or obstacles in approval could lead to price corrections.

In summary, this application is a key attempt for BNB to move towards mainstream finance. The short-term impact leans towards sentiment, while the long-term substantive impact entirely depends on whether it can overcome the SEC's regulatory hurdles.

#bnb $BNB

#韩国丢失遭扣押比特币

The incident of the South Korean prosecution losing a huge amount of seized Bitcoin is a landmark case that exposes serious flaws in the management of digital assets by public institutions.

1. Core Facts of the Incident

· Incident Agency: Gwangju District Prosecutors' Office in South Korea.
· Incident Time: Discovered during a routine inspection in January 2026, assets may have been stolen as early as mid-2025.
· Loss Amount: Approximately 70 billion won (about 48 million USD).
· Direct Cause: Staff accidentally accessed a phishing website during the inspection, leading to the leakage of private keys stored on a USB device, resulting in asset transfer.

2. Key Issues and Impacts

· Low-level Security Mistake: Storing highly sensitive Bitcoin private keys on a portable USB device violates the most basic principles of key security management.
· Agency's Capability in Question: As a law enforcement agency, its cybersecurity awareness and asset custody capabilities are severely questioned by the public.
· Difficulty in Asset Recovery: The irreversibility of blockchain transactions makes the possibility of recovering assets extremely low.
· Triggering Regulatory Pressure: This incident occurs against the backdrop of the South Korean Supreme Court recently expanding the authority to seize crypto assets, which will inevitably compel the government to implement stricter standards for the seizure and custody of digital assets.

In summary, this incident is far from a simple hacker attack; it reveals the systemic unpreparedness of traditional authoritative institutions in dealing with new types of digital assets and may become a cautionary tale for governments worldwide in managing crypto assets.

$BTC

#Scroll联创X账户被盗

Regarding the Scroll co-founder X account theft incident, the core issue is a targeted social engineering attack, not an ordinary account hacking. Here are the specific details and key points:

1. Basic Situation of the Incident

· Account involved: Scroll co-founder Ye Chen (Kenneth Shen) verified X account @shenhaichen.
· Current Status: The account has been stolen, and Scroll's official team has issued a warning and is actively working on recovery.
· User Warning: Do not click on any links posted by this account or interact with its private messages.

2. Analysis of the Attack Method

· Identity Masquerading: The hacker disguised the stolen account as an "X official employee."
· Scam Method: Sending fake "copyright violation notices" containing malicious links to founders, executives, and investors in the crypto field, threatening that not clicking the link will result in account restrictions, which is highly deceptive and coercive.
· Nature of the Incident: This is part of a series of targeted multi-platform social engineering attacks on the crypto industry from 2025 to early 2026.

3. Impact and Insights

· Targeted: This attack precisely exploits the credibility of key industry figures, making it easy to deceive insiders.
· Industry Risk: The incident highlights that social media accounts in the crypto industry have become high-risk attack vectors, and both project teams and investors need to include executive account security in their risk management strategies.
· General Protection: Regardless of who sends suspicious links or requests, it is essential to verify through multiple official channels.

In summary, this incident is a professionally executed targeted phishing attack that the entire crypto community needs to be vigilant about.

If you would like to learn more about Scroll's follow-up security measures or common social engineering attack methods in the crypto field, I can provide further insights.

$BTC

#美股七巨头财报

The core characteristics of the financial reports of the "Seven Giants" in the US stock market for 2025 are a surge in capital expenditures directed towards AI infrastructure development. The market has reacted differently to each company's strategy; for example, Meta's massive investment led to a decline in its stock price, while Amazon and Google were recognized for their strong growth in cloud services.

For 2026, analysts generally hold an optimistic outlook. Predictions indicate that the overall profit growth rate for the "Seven Giants" is expected to be around 24%, significantly higher than the expected growth rate of 12.5% for other components of the S&P 500 index. Among these, Amazon and Alphabet (Google) are viewed by multiple institutions as having the greatest growth potential over the next five years.

However, the high growth expectations are accompanied by sustained high levels of investment. The major giants have clearly stated that capital expenditures will continue to increase in 2026 to support the construction of AI data centers and other projects. This means that profit growth will largely depend on whether these massive investments can be converted into future revenues and efficiency improvements.

$BTC

Weekly Outlook: The Federal Reserve Meeting Approaches! Silver Enters the 'Three-Digit' Era, Will Trump Add Fuel to the Fire?

#美国加密市场法案延迟 $ETH
$BTC

1.26

January 26
The Senate Agriculture Committee has postponed the hearing on the cryptocurrency market structure bill to January 27;

The SEC and CFTC will hold a joint event on cryptocurrency regulatory coordination on January 27;

January 29
The Federal Reserve FOMC will announce the new interest rate decision on January 29;

January 30
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the U.S. December PPI data on January 30;

This week is both a data week and a news week, with three consecutive pieces of bad news:
1. Trump threatens to impose a 100% tariff on Canada. This may trigger a countermeasure from Canada and China.
2. China and the U.S. plan to jointly intervene in the Japanese exchange rate. This could cause panic among carry traders.
3. The probability of a government shutdown on January 31 has risen to 78%, and the market is concerned about another October-like situation.

BTC
Originally, the weekend was stable, but suddenly Trump had significant emotional fluctuations, leading to the morning's situation; if we set aside the news and return to the technical side, the Bitcoin daily level has returned to the lower edge around 85000 of the previous range, and this position is also the defensive position of this wave of fluctuations. If 85000 is broken, it could lead to a decline towards below 78000. From a broader weekly perspective, the risk has not yet been resolved, so in the short term, we need to pay attention to whether this position at the four-hour level can form a divergence after completing the segment, which could lead to a rebound. At the same time, we need to observe whether the range from 85000 to 88500 can fluctuate and break upwards. Therefore, to summarize, the support at 85000 cannot be broken, and for this wave of market to continue to strengthen, it needs to stabilize above the 90000 threshold, with support at 85000-84500 and resistance at 88500-90000.

ETH
Ethereum has also returned to the previous buying level around 2800, and it has repeatedly tested around 2800. The range at this position is between 2600 and 2800, which is the previous support. Currently, its trend also needs to consider Bitcoin. Similarly, we need to pay attention to whether this position at the four-hour level can form a divergence. During the day, it is likely to fluctuate between 2820 and 2900, with support at 2820-2720 and resistance at 2900-2968.

#美股七巨头财报 #以太坊巨鲸异动 #美国加密市场法案延迟 $BTC $ETH

Every financial product has its cycles of boom and bust, and 2021 marks a super cycle point for Bitcoin.

Putting aside personal emotions and thoughts, when compared to the four stages of financial bubbles, Bitcoin is indeed in a very awkward position, rebounding from 85000 to 97800, which is equivalent to the bull trap mentioned in the image.

Therefore, anyone telling you that the crypto super cycle is coming soon should not be listened to; prioritizing cash flow is key!

#ETH走势分析 $BTC

1.22

BTC
Yesterday, as mentioned to everyone, after the opening of the US stock market, there is a high probability of a rebound after a significant drop. According to expectations, a rebound after a significant drop has occurred. Currently, Bitcoin is oscillating in the range of 88500 to 90500. The next thing to watch is whether the one-hour and four-hour levels can form a structure and whether it can stabilize at the position of 90600. If it stabilizes, we can see continuation above. If it does not stabilize, it will continue to oscillate around the lower range. In summary, there will be a rebound during the day, but attention should be paid to the strength of the rebound. After the rebound, it will continue to move down and oscillate. Support is at 89500-88500, resistance is at 90500-91500.

ETH
Ethereum is also oscillating in this range as we expected. After reaching the corresponding resistance, it has pulled back. Currently, Ethereum needs to pay attention to the oscillation range between 2900 and 3065. Next, focus on whether this range can oscillate to form a bottom. At the same time, pay attention to the structure of the one-hour and four-hour levels. As long as the position of 2900 does not break, there is an opportunity for it in the short term. Also, pay attention to the daily level that cannot break below the zero axis. To continue this wave of market, it needs to stabilize at the position of 3065. Support is at 2980-2900, resistance is at 3065-3120.

#特朗普对欧洲加征关税 $BTC
$ETH

Will the altcoin market explode comprehensively in 2026? #山寨季何时到来？

Summary: Structural differentiation rather than a comprehensive explosion

The core basis is as follows:

1. Funds will "flow selectively": Global liquidity may improve, but institutional funds (through ETFs, etc.) and smart money will be highly concentrated in protocols with real income and high product-market fit (such as leading perpetual DEXs and prediction markets), rather than purely speculative narratives.

2. Market structure has changed: The dominant forces in the market have shifted from retail investors to institutions, leading to the market being more dependent on positions, fees, and liquidity, among other microstructures. This suppresses the momentum for a comprehensive surge, while major liquidity is still absorbed by Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.

3. Key "triggers" are needed: A comprehensive market requires one or more conditions: mainstream institutions expanding their investment scope to a wider range of altcoins, sustained increases in leading assets like BTC/ETH generating widespread wealth effects, or significant regulatory progress (such as the passage of key legislation) attracting retail investors back en masse.

4. Specific sector opportunities are clear: Opportunities will exist in sectors interacting with the real world: stablecoin payments (growth pillars under regulatory frameworks), prediction markets (infrastructure evolving towards the mainstream), and certain leading public chain ecosystems (such as Solana).

In conclusion, in 2026, one should abandon the fantasy of a "comprehensive altcoin season" and instead seek targets with robust business models, clear cash flows, and practical value. The market's reward mechanism is shifting from "narrative creation" to "value discovery."

#预测 #加密市场观察 $BTC
$ETH

What tracks and sectors can be focused on in cryptocurrency in 2026?

1. The consumer-level integration of AI and cryptocurrency

· Core opportunities: AI applications that generate actual cash flow, such as DeFi interfaces operated by natural language and AI wealth advisors with asset management capabilities.
· Key basis: AI agents will become mainstream economic participants, driving demand for 'Know Your Agent' (KYA) identity protocols and high-frequency, low-value payment settlement layers (such as the x402 protocol), with a significant amount of on-chain interactions expected to be completed by AI.

2. Stablecoins and RWA (Real World Assets)

· Core opportunities: Using compliant stablecoins as a payment layer, and introducing traditional assets like US Treasury bonds and credit to the blockchain through tokenization or perpetual contracts.
· Key basis: The implementation of the U.S. 'GENIUS Act' provides regulatory certainty, leading to a surge in the use of stablecoins for B2B payments. RWA is transitioning from experimentation to commercialization, with tokenization of U.S. Treasury bonds and other cash instruments being the current dominant use case.

3. Infrastructure for the practical use of Bitcoin

· Core opportunities: Extending the basic functions and security of Bitcoin through protocols and tools, rather than merely issuing new assets on top of it.
· Key basis: Institutional interest in Bitcoin is shifting from merely ETF exposure to its practical value as a secure settlement layer. VC investment logic is shifting towards building infrastructure that enhances Bitcoin's utility.

4. On-chain investment platforms for retail investors

· Core opportunities: Simplifying the complexity of Web3 and integrating functions such as investment and payment into a one-stop 'financial super app'.
· Key basis: The market needs user-friendly and compliant platforms to accommodate large-scale users. These platforms aim to bridge the gap between on-chain and off-chain, allowing users to utilize cryptocurrency services without needing to understand complex concepts like private keys, which is key to achieving mass adoption.

Conclusion:
In summary, the opportunities in 2026 lie in finding bridge projects that connect cryptocurrency with the real world, solve efficiency problems, and comply with regulatory trends. The market will place greater emphasis on actual revenue, user base, and clear compliance paths, rather than just narratives!

#加密市场观察 #比特币2026年价格预测

$BTC
$ETH

Let's talk about a topic most concerned by retail investors: Will there still be a bull market for cryptocurrencies in 2026?

From the dual perspectives of Wall Street and Silicon Valley, the foundation for a structural bull market in the cryptocurrency market in 2026 remains solid, but the market logic has shifted from retail speculation to institution-led value reassessment.

The core bases are as follows:

1. Institutional capital becoming the new engine: Traditional financial giants like BlackRock and Fidelity continue to enter through compliant channels such as spot ETFs. 21Shares predicts that by 2026, the assets under management of cryptocurrency ETFs will exceed $400 billion. This wave of "patient capital" will smooth volatility and support a long bull market.

2. Regulatory framework becoming clearer: Key legislations such as the U.S. "GENIUS Act" are expected to be implemented in 2026, providing clear rules for stablecoins and market structure. Regulation is shifting from "whether to regulate" to "how to regulate," reducing uncertainty for institutional entry.

3. Bitcoin gaining sovereign and corporate recognition: Following actions in the U.S., institutions like Fidelity predict that by 2026, more countries will incorporate Bitcoin into their reserve assets. Meanwhile, over 100 publicly listed companies have added it to their balance sheets, viewing it as a strategic asset rather than a speculative one.

4. New narratives create real utility: Market growth points are shifting to areas that can generate cash flow: AI-agent economies (such as the x402 protocol) will drive high-frequency on-chain payments; RWA (real-world assets) will lead to large-scale tokenization of U.S. Treasuries, stocks, etc.; interest-bearing stablecoins and compliant DeFi will attract traditional funds.

Risks:
Market consensus is "slow bull" and "structural differentiation." The broad-based "altcoin season" may no longer exist, with capital highly concentrated in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and top projects with actual income and moats. Additionally, shifts in macroeconomic policy and geopolitical risks remain potential variables.

In summary, 2026 will be a year of differentiation for cryptocurrencies, supporting the long-term development of the cryptocurrency market ahead, while also marking a dividing line for the realization of altcoin value!

For reference only, not investment advice

#Strategy增持比特币

#比特币2026年价格预测
$BTC
$ETH

#黄金白银价格创新高

Why are other financial markets rising except for the cryptocurrency market?

①Impact of macro policies and economic expectations: The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to continue with interest rate cuts, and a low-interest-rate environment reduces borrowing costs for businesses, making assets like stocks more attractive. At the same time, under the pressure of the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, the ruling party tends to favor loose policies to gain votes, providing liquidity and profit support for the stock market, gold, and other assets.

②Increased demand for safe-haven assets: Trump's announcement of increased tariffs on European countries is seen as a signal of escalating geopolitical tensions and trade wars, triggering risk-averse sentiment in the market. Investors flocked to traditional safe-haven assets, leading to record highs in gold prices, while cryptocurrencies, as risk assets, faced sell-offs.

③Strong corporate earnings performance: Corporate earnings are an important foundation for the rise of the stock market. The third-quarter earnings of S&P 500 constituent companies grew by about 8% year-on-year, maintaining growth for nine consecutive quarters, with earnings growth expected to rise to 13.8% in 2026. Such earning power gives investors reason to continue holding or even increasing their positions.

④Structural issues within the cryptocurrency market: On one hand, the cryptocurrency market heavily relies on leveraged trading, and when prices fluctuate sharply, high leverage can accelerate losses and trigger forced liquidation mechanisms, creating a vicious cycle of "decline - liquidation - further decline." On the other hand, tightening global regulations exacerbate the vulnerabilities of the crypto market, causing some institutional funds to cautiously withdraw, while ordinary investors also reduce their holdings due to rising compliance costs and other reasons, leading to tightening market liquidity.

$PAXG
$XAU
#美联储降息预期升温

#特朗普对欧洲加征关税

What impact does Trump's tariffs on Europe have on the cryptocurrency market?

Trump's tariffs on Europe have had a negative impact on the cryptocurrency market, leading to a drop in cryptocurrency prices and interrupting the market's rebound rhythm.

Trump announced that starting from February 1, he will impose a 10% tariff on goods imported from 8 European countries, including Denmark and Norway, and plans to raise the tariff to 25% on June 1. As a result, on January 19, the crypto market faced a sell-off, with Bitcoin's price falling more than 3%, dropping below $92,000, and Ethereum's price falling by 2.95% to around $3,200, while other tokens such as Binance Coin, Ripple, and Solana all fell by more than 2%. CoinGlass data shows that over $680 million in cryptocurrency positions were liquidated in the past 24 hours, with about $600 million coming from long positions.

This tariff incident triggered a risk-averse sentiment in the market, with investors flocking to traditional safe-haven assets, such as gold prices hitting an all-time high, while cryptocurrencies, as risk assets, faced sell-offs. At the same time, institutional support for cryptocurrencies has also wavered, with little capital inflow into U.S. spot ETFs, further affecting the trend of the cryptocurrency market.

$PAXG
$XAU

#黄金白银价格创新高

The main driving factors for the increase are macroeconomic and safe-haven demand:

① Expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve: The market expects the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in 2026, and the low-interest-rate environment reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold.
② Geopolitical risks: Tensions in various parts of the world have boosted the safe-haven demand for gold.
③ Concerns about the U.S. dollar's credibility: Discussions about the dominance of the U.S. dollar have prompted some funds to shift towards gold.
④ Central banks continue to buy gold: Central banks in various countries (such as Poland and Brazil) have provided solid support for gold prices by purchasing gold.

Potential risks: The market faces short-term technical selling pressure such as “index rebalancing”; excessively high prices may also attract policy attention. Additionally, increased margin requirements for trading may exacerbate short-term volatility.

In summary, while the long-term logic for the rise in precious metals remains unchanged, short-term risks are accumulating. When making decisions, more emphasis should be placed on individual investment goals and risk tolerance rather than simply chasing prices.

$XAU

Can gold stop rising? It's making me uncomfortable. Can the next one be digital gold?

#黄金白银价格创新高 $BTC
$ETH