Good evening, I am Lao Wan.
The weekend has arrived, and the market has started to show a 'health maintenance' trend, with narrow fluctuations, neither up nor down. Don't worry, I'll explain the current situation of BTC and ETH in simple terms, data speaks, no hype, no negativity.
First, let's look at Bitcoin (BTC)
Let's state the conclusion first: a short-term correction is expected, but over the weekend, it is highly likely to oscillate within a range, so don't chase the highs.
From the 4-hour perspective, the Bollinger Bands have changed from 'opening up' to 'closing down', and the price has been pressed down by the upper band. Currently, the position at 71800 is a short-term support level (middle band), with the defensive line below at 70500 (lower band). Looking at MACD, although the golden cross is still present, the two lines are about to stick together, and the bars are losing strength, indicating that the bulls are starting to weaken. Both KDJ and RSI have turned down from high levels, which makes it very clear—the 4-hour level correction trend has emerged.
Switching to the 1-hour chart makes it clearer. 73482 has become the ceiling (upper band), and the MACD is diverging downwards after a death cross, with the bears in control. However, the KDJ’s J value is already negative, indicating that the drop has been too steep and is somewhat oversold, which may bounce back at any time, but don’t rush to catch the bottom, as the RSI is still in a weak zone, indicating that the downward pressure is not over.
In summary: The weekend is likely to see a downward consolidation looking for support. The strong pressure zone above is at 73200-73500, with the first support below at 71800-72000. If it breaks, then it will test 70500.
In terms of operations (applicable to both spot and futures): Since liquidity is poor over the weekend, let’s go high on shorts and low on longs, without any grand expectations.
Long position opportunity: Wait for a pullback to the 70800-71800 range before considering entry, with a stop loss of 500 points and a target of 72000-73000.
Short position opportunity: If it rebounds to the 74000-73500 area, you can short one hand, with a stop loss of 500 points and a target of 73000-72000.
Remember, don't expect a one-way market over the weekend, take the profit and run, there's no shame in that.
Let’s take another look at Ethereum (ETH)
Conclusion: Follow the lead, the pullback pressure is greater, focus on the 2200 level.
Ethereum's 4-hour level has a similar script. The Bollinger Bands are narrowing and flattening, with the middle line at 2213 being crucial in the short term. The MACD has a golden cross but is losing momentum, and the bears are starting to show up. Both KDJ and RSI have turned down from high levels, with the pullback pressure being even more obvious than BTC.
On the 1-hour chart, 2261 has become the short-term ceiling (upper band), with support at the lower band at 2215. The MACD shows a death cross with increased volume, and the bears are in control. Similarly, the KDJ’s J value is also negative, indicating a short-term need for a rebound, but it’s just a rebound, not a reversal.
In summary: The strong pressure above is at 2260-2265, the first support is at 2215-2220, and the last line of defense is at 2200. Over the weekend, first look for a pullback, wait for the 1-hour level to stabilize after being oversold, then consider a short-term long position.
In terms of operations:
Mainly short positions: Look for short opportunities in the rebound zone of 2285-2255, with a stop loss of 30 points and a target down to 2235-2185.
Supportive long positions: If it drops to the 2185-2215 range first, you can take a short-term long position, with a stop loss of 30 points and a target of 2235-2285.
Finally, a word of caution: Weekend market liquidity is low, making it easy for small funds to manipulate. Whether it's BTC or ETH, only act at the boundary of the range, hold your hands in the middle position. Wishing everyone a pleasant weekend and may your accounts prosper!
——Old Wan