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ETH率先突破
1. 虽然BTC依旧未有效站稳94000，但ETH已完全突破3220
2.ETH/BTC已经走出了下降趋势，经过充分的调整，这波ETH/BTC有望超过前期0.043的高点，创出新高
3.降息+QE重启预期资金将向高风险资产转移，利好ETH，看好ETH回到4000+
#币圈
1. 虽然BTC依旧未有效站稳94000，但ETH已完全突破3220
2.ETH/BTC已经走出了下降趋势，经过充分的调整，这波ETH/BTC有望超过前期0.043的高点，创出新高
3.降息+QE重启预期资金将向高风险资产转移，利好ETH，看好ETH回到4000+
#币圈
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Dogecoin (DOGE) Struggles at the Critical 'Cloud Bottom', Monthly Support Faces Test!
Famous cryptocurrency analyst Cantonese Cat (@cantonmeow) recently posted a chart on social media platform X, pointing out that Dogecoin (DOGE) is currently at a critical technical level that will determine its long-term fate—near the bottom of the monthly Ichimoku Cloud.
The analyst used the metaphor of 'licking the bottom of its monthly Ichimoku cloud chart' to vividly depict DOGE's fragile state as it hovers above this critical support zone.
Core Analysis: The Death Line on the Monthly Chart
The DOGE/USDT monthly chart provided by the analyst shows (as of December 7):
The analyst used the metaphor of 'licking the bottom of its monthly Ichimoku cloud chart' to vividly depict DOGE's fragile state as it hovers above this critical support zone.
Core Analysis: The Death Line on the Monthly Chart
The DOGE/USDT monthly chart provided by the analyst shows (as of December 7):
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MERL Market Observation: Bearish Forces are Accumulating, Increasing the Possibility of a Drop to $0.2
Recently, the price of MERL has shown significant weakness. A closer look reveals that it has encountered resistance near $0.5 three times in a row, with each rebound reaching a lower height than the previous one, indicating that sellers are gradually taking control, and the buying power in the market is weakening.
This is not an ordinary correction, but more like a pause in a downward trend. Each rebound has become an opportunity for bears to increase their positions, and the market shows that bulls are temporarily struggling to take the initiative.
#币圈
Recently, the price of MERL has shown significant weakness. A closer look reveals that it has encountered resistance near $0.5 three times in a row, with each rebound reaching a lower height than the previous one, indicating that sellers are gradually taking control, and the buying power in the market is weakening.
This is not an ordinary correction, but more like a pause in a downward trend. Each rebound has become an opportunity for bears to increase their positions, and the market shows that bulls are temporarily struggling to take the initiative.
#币圈
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Cryptocurrency Market 'V-shaped' Volatility, Technicals Yield to Macro Judgments, Everything Awaits the Federal Reserve to Move the Pendulum!
Market Review for the Past 24 Hours: Typical Volatility Pattern Before Events
Major Cryptocurrencies Show Divergent Trends: The Market Exhibited a 'V-shaped' Volatility Pattern on December 8. Bitcoin's price quickly rebounded after dropping below $89,000 at 6 AM, breaking through $92,000 in the afternoon, then falling back to around $89,500 at 11 PM, before rebounding above $91,000 in the early hours of the 9th. Currently, the price is consolidating around $90,500, with the direction yet to be determined.
Ethereum Maintains High-Level Consolidation: Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum's trend is more stable. Its price fluctuated within a narrow range of $3,080 to $3,180 throughout the day, with a slight increase of 0.04%, indicating cautious market sentiment ahead of significant events, building strength above key support levels.
Major Cryptocurrencies Show Divergent Trends: The Market Exhibited a 'V-shaped' Volatility Pattern on December 8. Bitcoin's price quickly rebounded after dropping below $89,000 at 6 AM, breaking through $92,000 in the afternoon, then falling back to around $89,500 at 11 PM, before rebounding above $91,000 in the early hours of the 9th. Currently, the price is consolidating around $90,500, with the direction yet to be determined.
Ethereum Maintains High-Level Consolidation: Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum's trend is more stable. Its price fluctuated within a narrow range of $3,080 to $3,180 throughout the day, with a slight increase of 0.04%, indicating cautious market sentiment ahead of significant events, building strength above key support levels.
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The current market situation is quite similar to when it was at 49000, with extremely poor market sentiment and everyone being bearish. Then, MicroStrategy became the largest buyer, aggressively buying at every key point.
Recently, it has been the same; as soon as the price goes up a bit, large holders aggressively sell off, and within 10 minutes, it seems as if a machine is set to push the price back up aggressively.
#币圈
Recently, it has been the same; as soon as the price goes up a bit, large holders aggressively sell off, and within 10 minutes, it seems as if a machine is set to push the price back up aggressively.
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The most important macro event of this year is just around the corner, the Federal Reserve FOMC meeting (December 9-10). Although the outcome is already known, the real market game is just beginning.
The market currently widely expects a 25bp cut, but in fact, this outcome itself is already difficult to price into the market. How this interest rate meeting determines the trends of risk assets will definitely depend on the degree of internal disagreement and the expectations for next year’s direction.
This internal disagreement may be more intense than expected; the opposition's forced compromise does not equate to a consistent rate cut, at least in my view, there will definitely be a considerable number of votes against the rate cut, which affects market sentiment. Cryptocurrency relies on emotional liquidity, and a disunited rate cut.
#币圈
The market currently widely expects a 25bp cut, but in fact, this outcome itself is already difficult to price into the market. How this interest rate meeting determines the trends of risk assets will definitely depend on the degree of internal disagreement and the expectations for next year’s direction.
This internal disagreement may be more intense than expected; the opposition's forced compromise does not equate to a consistent rate cut, at least in my view, there will definitely be a considerable number of votes against the rate cut, which affects market sentiment. Cryptocurrency relies on emotional liquidity, and a disunited rate cut.
#币圈
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Calm Amidst the Uptrend: Bitcoin Returns to 90,000, Breakthrough or Trap? Where is the Real Battlefield This Week?
The overnight cryptocurrency market generally rose, with Bitcoin increasing by about 1.63% within 24 hours, not only returning to the integer threshold of $90,000 but also briefly touching above $91,000. Ethereum performed even stronger, with a rise of 2.25% during the same period, currently stabilizing above $3,100. Although market sentiment has been boosted, it is more important to remain calm and observe as key macro events approach.
Technical Pattern Analysis
Market Key Point Analysis: The Technical Pattern and Trading Strategy of Bitcoin and Ethereum
Bitcoin: The Game of Resistance and Support
Core Resistance Zone ($92,000 - $95,000) This range has become a key area for whether the rebound can continue or if it signals a trend reversal. There is selling pressure near $92,000, formed by multiple recent highs, while the $95,000 to $100,000 range is seen as an important dividing line for determining the market's long-term direction. Only with significantly increased trading volume and a solid position in this area can market sentiment be expected to turn fully optimistic.
Technical Pattern Analysis
Market Key Point Analysis: The Technical Pattern and Trading Strategy of Bitcoin and Ethereum
Bitcoin: The Game of Resistance and Support
Core Resistance Zone ($92,000 - $95,000) This range has become a key area for whether the rebound can continue or if it signals a trend reversal. There is selling pressure near $92,000, formed by multiple recent highs, while the $95,000 to $100,000 range is seen as an important dividing line for determining the market's long-term direction. Only with significantly increased trading volume and a solid position in this area can market sentiment be expected to turn fully optimistic.
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This morning's surge is encouraging. Bitcoin has risen approximately 1.63% in the past 24 hours, not only reclaiming the 90,000 integer mark but also briefly touching above $91,000. Ethereum has performed even stronger, with a 24-hour increase of 2.25%, maintaining a price above $3,100.
However, amidst the upward trend, we need to maintain a calm observation. The trading volume of this surge has not shown explosive growth, and the market as a whole remains in a "breakthrough observation" state. The current rebound seems more like a technical correction of last week's oversold conditions rather than a complete trend reversal. After failing to challenge $94,000 last week, Bitcoin has actually been in a consolidation range between $88,000 and $89,000, with momentum weakened. Therefore, whether this morning's breakthrough can translate into a sustainable rise still requires further observation.
#币圈
However, amidst the upward trend, we need to maintain a calm observation. The trading volume of this surge has not shown explosive growth, and the market as a whole remains in a "breakthrough observation" state. The current rebound seems more like a technical correction of last week's oversold conditions rather than a complete trend reversal. After failing to challenge $94,000 last week, Bitcoin has actually been in a consolidation range between $88,000 and $89,000, with momentum weakened. Therefore, whether this morning's breakthrough can translate into a sustainable rise still requires further observation.
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Dogecoin has plummeted 67% this year: capital inflow is rising, but strong resistance still threatens the market!
As the leading meme coin by market capitalization, Dogecoin currently has a market cap of approximately $23.28 billion, but its price has recently faced strong downward pressure. Data shows that the asset's annualized decline has reached 67%, and its daily performance is similarly weak, with a further drop of 2.4% in the past 24 hours.
In the current market environment, several on-chain indicators are showing noteworthy signals that may indicate a change in the future trend of Dogecoin.
Market sentiment is sluggish, but it may be in a continuous accumulation phase
According to the bubble risk model analysis, the current market sentiment regarding Dogecoin's valuation is low, which typically indicates that the asset is not overvalued. Instead, it may suggest that the market is in an accumulation phase rather than a selling period. This judgment aligns with the phenomenon of increased on-chain activity—Santiment data shows that the number of daily active addresses has significantly risen recently, with the latest reading reaching 73,560, reflecting a gradual warming of investor participation.
In the current market environment, several on-chain indicators are showing noteworthy signals that may indicate a change in the future trend of Dogecoin.
Market sentiment is sluggish, but it may be in a continuous accumulation phase
According to the bubble risk model analysis, the current market sentiment regarding Dogecoin's valuation is low, which typically indicates that the asset is not overvalued. Instead, it may suggest that the market is in an accumulation phase rather than a selling period. This judgment aligns with the phenomenon of increased on-chain activity—Santiment data shows that the number of daily active addresses has significantly risen recently, with the latest reading reaching 73,560, reflecting a gradual warming of investor participation.
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Review and Outlook: A Week of Turmoil in the Crypto Market, Can $94,000 Become the New Starting Point for the Bull Market?
Core Summary: Over the past week, the cryptocurrency market has experienced a complete cycle of 'panic-clearing-recovery'. Bitcoin violently rebounded after dropping to $84,286, ultimately being blocked by the key resistance at $94,000. The market is now in a high-level consolidation, waiting for macro signals such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision to guide the direction.
Weekly Review: The Ups and Downs of Four Stages
Stage One: The Calm Before the Storm. At the beginning of the week, market trading was light, with Bitcoin oscillating in a narrow range of $90,000-$91,500, and market sentiment was cautious, waiting for direction.
Stage Two: Panic Waterfall and Extreme Liquidation. A dramatic turn occurred on Monday. Influenced by the unexpected 'hawkish' remarks from the Bank of Japan's governor, trades relying on yen arbitrage faced pressure, triggering a chain liquidation of high-leverage positions in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin plummeted nearly 8% within 24 hours, hitting a low of $84,286; Ethereum suffered a significant drop of 10%, reaching $2,719. Nearly $1 billion in positions were liquidated across the network, plunging market sentiment into 'extreme fear'.
Weekly Review: The Ups and Downs of Four Stages
Stage One: The Calm Before the Storm. At the beginning of the week, market trading was light, with Bitcoin oscillating in a narrow range of $90,000-$91,500, and market sentiment was cautious, waiting for direction.
Stage Two: Panic Waterfall and Extreme Liquidation. A dramatic turn occurred on Monday. Influenced by the unexpected 'hawkish' remarks from the Bank of Japan's governor, trades relying on yen arbitrage faced pressure, triggering a chain liquidation of high-leverage positions in the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin plummeted nearly 8% within 24 hours, hitting a low of $84,286; Ethereum suffered a significant drop of 10%, reaching $2,719. Nearly $1 billion in positions were liquidated across the network, plunging market sentiment into 'extreme fear'.
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JPMorgan Chase Forecasts BTC to Reach $170,000: Is it Wishful Thinking or Prophecy?
JPMorgan Chase has made another bold prediction, claiming that Bitcoin could reach $170,000 in the next 6 to 12 months. Is this blind optimism or is there substance behind it?
Its core logic is mainly built on the following three pillars:
1. Potential to Compete with Gold: If Bitcoin can continue to solidify its position as "digital gold" and trade in a similar volatility pattern as gold, its market cap reassessment will drive the price directly to $170,000.
2. Selling Pressure Risks Temporarily Alleviated: The market's concern over MicroStrategy selling has not materialized. The company has just raised $1.4 billion in cash, with no pressure on its spending budget for the next two years.
3. The Key "Do or Die" Battle in January: The MSCI index will decide in January whether to exclude MicroStrategy.
Risk: If excluded, MicroStrategy's market cap could instantly evaporate by about $2.8 billion, triggering a chain decline.
Opportunity: If successfully retained, both stocks and Bitcoin are expected to see a strong rebound.
⚠️
"The MSCI decision in January" is the real barometer in the short term, and it is advised to closely monitor market reactions at this juncture.
#币圈
JPMorgan Chase has made another bold prediction, claiming that Bitcoin could reach $170,000 in the next 6 to 12 months. Is this blind optimism or is there substance behind it?
Its core logic is mainly built on the following three pillars:
1. Potential to Compete with Gold: If Bitcoin can continue to solidify its position as "digital gold" and trade in a similar volatility pattern as gold, its market cap reassessment will drive the price directly to $170,000.
2. Selling Pressure Risks Temporarily Alleviated: The market's concern over MicroStrategy selling has not materialized. The company has just raised $1.4 billion in cash, with no pressure on its spending budget for the next two years.
3. The Key "Do or Die" Battle in January: The MSCI index will decide in January whether to exclude MicroStrategy.
Risk: If excluded, MicroStrategy's market cap could instantly evaporate by about $2.8 billion, triggering a chain decline.
Opportunity: If successfully retained, both stocks and Bitcoin are expected to see a strong rebound.
⚠️
"The MSCI decision in January" is the real barometer in the short term, and it is advised to closely monitor market reactions at this juncture.
#币圈
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Is Dogecoin poised for a surge after the pullback? Technical breakthroughs + improving fundamentals, with multiple analysts pointing to a potential increase of up to 37%?
On Thursday, Dogecoin (DOGE) experienced a price drop as the market weakened, but several key indicators show that its upward structure remains solid. Many well-known analysts even believe that DOGE is building strength and may see an increase of up to 26%—37%.
The short-term pullback aligns with the market rhythm, and futures speculative sentiment is cooling simultaneously.
As the spot price falls, the derivatives heat of Dogecoin also shows signs of cooling. In the past 24 hours, the open interest of DOGE futures has decreased by 3.53%, indicating a withdrawal of short-term speculative funds.
This slight pullback is not unexpected, as its trend is consistent with the adjustments in the entire cryptocurrency market: during the same period, Bitcoin fell by 1.37%, Ethereum fell by 1.16%, and overall risk appetite has declined, putting pressure on Dogecoin's short-term price.
The short-term pullback aligns with the market rhythm, and futures speculative sentiment is cooling simultaneously.
As the spot price falls, the derivatives heat of Dogecoin also shows signs of cooling. In the past 24 hours, the open interest of DOGE futures has decreased by 3.53%, indicating a withdrawal of short-term speculative funds.
This slight pullback is not unexpected, as its trend is consistent with the adjustments in the entire cryptocurrency market: during the same period, Bitcoin fell by 1.37%, Ethereum fell by 1.16%, and overall risk appetite has declined, putting pressure on Dogecoin's short-term price.
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It's already Friday, and the macro market this week is still stagnant, with everyone waiting to see how the Federal Reserve will play its cards in December. The market appears calm on the surface, but there are undercurrents everywhere. Whether it's U.S. stocks or Bitcoin, they are all grinding away in a narrow channel.
Including some data from yesterday, it didn't hold much significance. It can't even stir up a ripple; the market is basically focused on the next interest rate cut, whether it will be 25bp or if there will be a surprise or a shock.
#币圈
Including some data from yesterday, it didn't hold much significance. It can't even stir up a ripple; the market is basically focused on the next interest rate cut, whether it will be 25bp or if there will be a surprise or a shock.
#币圈
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December 5 Cryptocurrency Market Analysis: High-Level Consolidation, Waiting for Direction!
1. Morning overview: The market digests gains, showing a technical correction.
After a strong rebound in the previous two days, the cryptocurrency market entered a high-level consolidation phase. Major currencies in Asia experienced a technical correction, but the overall structure remains stable, with market sentiment shifting from exuberance to caution.
Bitcoin: The price received support after briefly dipping below $91,000, reaching a low of below $90,850, and then quickly rebounding to around $92,300, with the daily decline narrowing to about 1.2%, indicating strong buying at lower levels.
Ethereum: The trend was correlated; it briefly fell below $3,100 in the early session but quickly stabilized above the support zone of $3,050-$3,080, preventing panic selling.
After a strong rebound in the previous two days, the cryptocurrency market entered a high-level consolidation phase. Major currencies in Asia experienced a technical correction, but the overall structure remains stable, with market sentiment shifting from exuberance to caution.
Bitcoin: The price received support after briefly dipping below $91,000, reaching a low of below $90,850, and then quickly rebounding to around $92,300, with the daily decline narrowing to about 1.2%, indicating strong buying at lower levels.
Ethereum: The trend was correlated; it briefly fell below $3,100 in the early session but quickly stabilized above the support zone of $3,050-$3,080, preventing panic selling.
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The pancake rebounded at 94,000 during the night but encountered resistance and fell back, forming short-term pressure. The core of the intraday trend lies in the support at 90,000. If the four-hour level can stabilize above this line, the current bullish structure will continue. If the price breaks below 90,000, attention should be paid to the support zone at 86,000. The small-scale rebound cycle has not yet ended. It is expected that after market consolidation, if it can effectively break through the resistance at 94,000, there will be a prospect for further attacks on the target area of 97,000-98,000.
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Dogecoin performs a "V-shaped reversal," does technical support withstand the test?
The technical support strength of Dogecoin has been validated again. Yesterday, the price once dipped to $0.13443, and as it approached the key support level, it suddenly surged, resulting in a "V-shaped rebound"—today it soared to a maximum of $0.152, with an intraday increase of over 13%, successfully achieving "escape from the tiger's mouth."
This trend confirms the warning from analyst Kevin. On November 22, he reminded investors: "$0.138 is the lifeline for DOGE! The closing price in the next 3 days to 1 week must not fall below this level." Kevin believes the effectiveness of Dogecoin's support level is closely related to Bitcoin's major trend and the flow of stablecoin funds.
This trend confirms the warning from analyst Kevin. On November 22, he reminded investors: "$0.138 is the lifeline for DOGE! The closing price in the next 3 days to 1 week must not fall below this level." Kevin believes the effectiveness of Dogecoin's support level is closely related to Bitcoin's major trend and the flow of stablecoin funds.
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The current battle around the critical area of $91,000 to $95,000 is unfolding. Coinglass data reveals the dangers of this chess game: a breakout above $95,000 would subject bears to nearly $600 million in liquidation hits; a drop below $91,000 could ignite a long liquidation bomb of nearly $1 billion. Notably, the potential intensity of long liquidations below far exceeds that of short liquidations above, adding a subtle uncertainty to the current high-stakes game. Therefore, based on the current data, the risk of going long outweighs the risk of going short; do not blindly chase longs!
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According to SoSoValue data, on December 3rd, Eastern Time, the total net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $14.8983 million. After a continuous net inflow for 5 days, it turned into a net outflow. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest single-day net inflow yesterday was Blackrock ETF IBIT, with a single-day net inflow of $42.2432 million. Currently, the historical total net inflow of IBIT has reached $62.663 billion.
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Market Commentary for December 4th: Sentiment Reversal, Key Level Breakthrough, Bulls Fully Control the Situation
On December 4th, Beijing time, the cryptocurrency market continued its strong attack based on the previous day's surge, completely suppressing the bears. Bitcoin and Ethereum both staged a short squeeze.
Bitcoin successfully broke through the important level of $93,000 in the morning, peaking at $94,127 during the day, with a 24-hour increase of 3.00%. Ethereum's performance was even more impressive, not only breaking through the $3,200 resistance level but currently reported at $3,215, with an intraday increase of up to 6.82%. Market sentiment has quickly warmed from the extreme panic of the previous day, with greed taking the lead again.
Bitcoin successfully broke through the important level of $93,000 in the morning, peaking at $94,127 during the day, with a 24-hour increase of 3.00%. Ethereum's performance was even more impressive, not only breaking through the $3,200 resistance level but currently reported at $3,215, with an intraday increase of up to 6.82%. Market sentiment has quickly warmed from the extreme panic of the previous day, with greed taking the lead again.
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Bitcoin returns above 93,000, briefly surpassing 94,000 during the session, reaching a two-week high. Ethereum performed even stronger, breaking through 3,200 USD, as the market realized a strong 'V-shaped' reversal from the low on December 1 (Bitcoin around 84,000), indicating a release of demand for a technical oversold rebound.
Capital movements: Significant inflow of funds into cryptocurrency ETFs: Last week, global cryptocurrency funds recorded a net inflow of 1.1 billion USD, reaching a seven-week high, reversing the previous trend of outflows over four consecutive weeks. Among them, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of 461 million and 308 million USD, respectively, as institutional funds re-entered the market, providing crucial buying support and serving as the most direct signal of market confidence recovery.)
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Capital movements: Significant inflow of funds into cryptocurrency ETFs: Last week, global cryptocurrency funds recorded a net inflow of 1.1 billion USD, reaching a seven-week high, reversing the previous trend of outflows over four consecutive weeks. Among them, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of 461 million and 308 million USD, respectively, as institutional funds re-entered the market, providing crucial buying support and serving as the most direct signal of market confidence recovery.)
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