The cryptocurrency market faces a decisive battle today, with Bitcoin gathering strength before the $90,000 threshold. Global investors are holding their breath for the Federal Reserve's policy statement and former President Trump's public speech, as these two events are seen as key variables that could ignite the market.
On January 28th in Beijing time, the volatility of the cryptocurrency market has dropped to an unusually low level, with Bitcoin's price narrowly consolidating around $89,000, while Ethereum barely maintains above the important psychological barrier of $3,000. Beneath the surface calm of the market, a storm driven by macro news is brewing.
Overall Market Situation: Sector Rotation in Low Volume Consolidation
The current total market value of crypto assets is approximately $3.11 trillion, with a slight daily increase of 1%, but the total market transaction volume has significantly contracted to $12.96 billion. Reduced trading volume often indicates that a significant directional choice is imminent.
Performance varies across different sectors. The decentralized finance (DeFi) sector leads the way, with an intraday increase of 3.68%, while Hyperliquid (HYPE) continues to soar by 27.77%. The artificial intelligence (AI) sector rose by 2.19%, and the meme sector also recorded an increase of 2.01%. On the other hand, game finance (GameFi) and decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) lagged behind, falling by 0.86% and 1.91%, respectively.
Funding trends show that the total market value of mainstream stablecoins has decreased by approximately $2.24 billion over the past ten days. This data reflects that available funds in the market are flowing out, weakening potential buying power, which is also one of the inherent reasons for the recent lack of upward price momentum.
In-depth Analysis of Macroeconomic Events: Dual Tests Determine Short-term Trajectory
1. The Federal Reserve's Policy Direction: Tonight's core focus in the market is undoubtedly the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision and policy statement. Although the market fully expects rates to remain unchanged, the wording regarding inflation outlook and future policy paths will become a decisive factor in influencing global risk asset prices. Any hawkish remarks expressing concern over the persistence of inflation could quickly suppress assets like Bitcoin. Conversely, any dovish signals suggesting a possible acceleration in rate cuts could become a catalyst for driving cryptocurrency prices up.
2. Potential Impact of Trump's Speech: Former U.S. President Donald Trump's upcoming speech is also highly anticipated. Its content may involve international trade, tariff policies, and even regulatory frameworks for digital assets, and any unexpected stance could drastically alter market risk sentiment. The combination of these two macro events creates significant uncertainty pressure. In this context, traders generally choose to reduce risk exposure before the situation clarifies, directly leading to the current low volatility in the market.
Industry Dynamics: A sharp drop in computing power and sudden events in the regulatory process. A rare winter storm in the U.S. has caused the total computing power of the Bitcoin network to drop sharply from about 1.16 ZH/s to 690 EH/s, setting a historical record for the decline. This unexpected situation has temporarily reduced the token selling pressure for some high-cost miners, providing short-term relief to the market. On the regulatory front, asset management institution Bitwise analyzed that as the U.S. (Digital Asset Market Clarity Act) encounters obstacles in Congress, the industry is at a critical crossroads. The delay in the legislative process may force the market to shift from a speculative phase reliant on expectations to a new phase that requires substantial use cases and performance support.
Bitcoin Market Technical Analysis: Converging Patterns Await Directional Signals
Technical Pattern: The daily chart of Bitcoin shows a typical symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern. After finding support at $86,300, although it has made two consecutive bullish rebounds, it has still failed to effectively break through the $90,000 mark. The key resistance area above is located at $90,300-$90,600, where there is selling pressure due to previous high points. On the support side, $88,500 forms a recent defense line, and the more critical support level is near $86,300.
Long and Short Game Trading Data: Binance's Bitcoin perpetual contract open interest has increased by about 15,000 contracts, with the long-short ratio maintained at a relatively low level of 1.08. Large holders have increased positions on both sides, indicating that major funds are making two-way layouts within the current volatile range, and market consensus has not yet unified. Observing the 4-hour chart, the current rebound is of a technical nature, with no significant increase in trading volume, showing that buying momentum exists but is insufficient in sustainability. As long as the price cannot stabilize above $90,000, the short-term structure remains tilted towards bearish.
Ethereum Market Analysis: The Battle at the $3,000 Mark
Technical Pattern: The Ethereum trend is highly correlated with Bitcoin but slightly weaker. On the daily level, after reclaiming the key moving average at $2,900, it has shown a weak rebound, with the $3,000 round number forming significant resistance. The important resistance band above is in the $3,050-$3,080 area, while the support interval below is between $2,950-$2,920. The current price is caught in a narrow range, waiting for external forces to break the deadlock.
Whale Movements and Derivative Risk Chain Analysis Show a Notable Phenomenon: Despite the weak price performance, a certain whale address has been continuously buying over the past five days, accumulating more than 70,000 ETH, worth around $200 million. This may indicate that some large investors view the current adjustment as a long-term allocation opportunity. However, the derivatives market harbors significant risks. If the Ethereum price falls to around $2,872, it could trigger forced liquidations of long positions amounting to approximately $1.368 billion. This potential chain liquidation risk makes any price rebound appear fragile.
Specific Trading Plan: Steady defense, waiting for opportunities
Bitcoin Trading Strategy
Short-term Trading (Intraday):
Consider lightly entering long positions in the range of $88,500-$88,800 with a stop loss set below $88,000, targeting $89,800-$90,500.
If the price rebounds to the $89,800-$90,300 area and meets resistance, consider lightly entering short positions with a stop loss set above $90,800, targeting $88,000-$87,500.
Medium-term Layout (3-7 days):
Long Opportunity: Wait for the price to significantly break above $90,600 and stabilize, then enter positions upon a pullback to $90,000 for confirmation, targeting $92,000-$93,000.
Short Opportunity: If the price breaks below $87,600 and the daily line closes below it, wait for a rebound near $88,000 to build positions under pressure, targeting $86,300-$85,000.
Ethereum Trading Strategy
Short-term Trading (Intraday):
Consider lightly entering long positions in the range of $2,900-$2,920 with a stop loss set below $2,880, targeting $2,980-$3,000.
If the price rebounds to the $2,980-$3,000 area and meets resistance, consider lightly entering short positions with a stop loss set above $3,030, targeting $2,920-$2,900.
Medium-term Layout:
Long Opportunity: Wait for the price to break out significantly above $3,050 and stabilize, then enter positions upon a pullback to $3,000 for confirmation, targeting $3,150-$3,200.
Short Opportunity: If the price breaks below $2,850, wait for a rebound near $2,900 to build positions under pressure, targeting $2,780-$2,700.
Position Allocation Recommendation: Control the total holding ratio at 30%-50% to avoid excessive aggression. Individual currency holdings should not exceed 8% of total funds, and leverage for short-term trading should be controlled within 20 times to cope with potential severe price fluctuations following macro events.
Risk Warning: The primary risk in the current market comes from the unpredictability of macro event outcomes. Any policy signals that exceed market expectations could trigger severe volatility, and traders must strictly adhere to stop-loss discipline to avoid emotional trading. The options market may also amplify short-term volatility. On January 30, a large number of Bitcoin options contracts will expire, and it is possible that large funds may create 'bull traps' or 'bear traps' before this, requiring short-term participants to exercise caution.
Looking at a longer cycle, the dual trends of 'deeper institutional participation' and 'improved regulatory frameworks' in the crypto market for 2026 have become clear. The executive order on crypto assets promoted during Trump's administration has paved the way for traditional institutional funds to enter; Bitcoin's property as a 'digital value store' continues to gain recognition; and Ethereum's staking economic system and ongoing technological upgrades have established a solid fundamental basis.
Historical experience shows that market opportunities often arise during panic. Currently, the market sentiment index is in the 'fear' zone at 29, which may provide a medium to long-term layout window for rational investors.