As the market rebounds from recent lows, Dogecoin (DOGE) is attempting to turn key areas back into support. Some analysts suggest that the cryptocurrency may be replaying its past trends, which could lead to significant volatility in the coming months.

Dogecoin Reemerges in Parabolic Climb

The largest market cap meme coin Dogecoin has been trading between $0.119 and $0.151 over the past month, reaching a one-month high of $0.156 during the rally in early January.

Dogecoin retested the range low over the weekend, bouncing back 5% after finding support in the key $0.119-$0.120 region, close to current levels. The cryptocurrency is currently trying to return to the $0.1250 area to continue its rebound.

In this context, some market observers believe that Dogecoin may be nearing the end of a macro consolidation. The analysis firm Bitcoinsensus noted that Dogecoin also followed a similar upward pattern in previous cycles.

The chart shows that after retreating from previous highs, the cryptocurrency experienced a long consolidation period, followed by a 'parabolic rise to new highs' when market conditions allowed.

As the analysis pointed out, Dogecoin previously broke through long-term accumulation zones that brought 60x and 215x increases, which may indicate that a larger upward trend is imminent if history repeats itself.

Similarly, trader Tardigrade pointed out that Dogecoin's current performance on the weekly chart echoes the breakout in the fourth quarter of 2024, when Dogecoin reached a multi-year high of $0.484.

'The structure, duration, and magnitude of current and previous retracements are very similar,' he wrote on X, where X fell nearly 60% from its local high over 19 weeks.

Based on this, the analyst believes that Dogecoin 'may have completed all retracements and may push towards the next high in the coming weeks.'

Dogecoin price faces a risk of another 50% decline

Despite the bullish outlook, market observation agency TradingShot confirmed that Dogecoin (DOGE) has entered a new round of bear market cycles, and if selling pressure and market volatility continue, it may face a retracement risk of 50%-70%.

According to this post, Dogecoin is currently supported only by the 350-day moving average (MA), which has been effective since the flash crash in October 2025. The post points out, 'Especially the 350-day moving average over one week is crucial, as it played a supportive role in the previous two bear market cycles.'

As the analysis explained, if it falls below this level, meme coins may enter the second phase of the bear market cycle, with a potential target price range of $0.060-$0.035:

Either bottoming near the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level of the upward trend in Dogecoin's historical Fibonacci channel (around $0.0600), or falling to a magnitude of -93.00% (the same as the previous two correction magnitudes), dropping to around $0.03500.

TradingShot also pointed out that based on the sine wave trend, the bottom for Dogecoin may appear in the fourth quarter of 2026. 'According to this prediction, the next bottom should be around October 2026. Therefore, regardless of the trading price of Dogecoin at that time, we will once again turn to long-term buying,' the company summarized.

At the time of writing, Dogecoin's trading price was $0.125, down 1.4% on the weekly chart.