Market shake-up! Trump's "Art of the Deal" backfires, how should we view the situation in Iran? What impact does it have on our wallets? Four key points👇
1️⃣ The King gets bitten: Trump's exaggerated push for "winning big" has backfired, intensifying domestic political pressure on the other side, and directly pushing the fragile US-Iran negotiations into a deep freeze.
2️⃣ Iran gets tough: The US misjudged Iran’s previous "soft" stance. Currently, all factions in Iran are speaking with one voice, unifying internally and making no concessions on key issues like nuclear negotiations.
3️⃣ Situation forecasting: Negotiation difficulties are at a hellish level, but a full-scale war is unlikely. The Strait blockade evolves into a game of chicken, with Iran continuously raising Trump's political costs through marginal conflicts, seeing who blinks first.
4️⃣ Market impact: The blockade creates a real energy shortfall, leading to oil prices staying high in the short term, causing market fluctuations; however, as long as war is avoided, the worst-case scenario can be sidestepped. If the US ultimately compromises and lifts the blockade, the medium to long-term outlook remains positive📈.
💡 Conclusion: Be cautious of the short-term volatility brought by high oil prices, but there's no need to be overly pessimistic about the macro situation.
#宏观经济 #中东局势 #crudeoil
1️⃣ The King gets bitten: Trump's exaggerated push for "winning big" has backfired, intensifying domestic political pressure on the other side, and directly pushing the fragile US-Iran negotiations into a deep freeze.
2️⃣ Iran gets tough: The US misjudged Iran’s previous "soft" stance. Currently, all factions in Iran are speaking with one voice, unifying internally and making no concessions on key issues like nuclear negotiations.
3️⃣ Situation forecasting: Negotiation difficulties are at a hellish level, but a full-scale war is unlikely. The Strait blockade evolves into a game of chicken, with Iran continuously raising Trump's political costs through marginal conflicts, seeing who blinks first.
4️⃣ Market impact: The blockade creates a real energy shortfall, leading to oil prices staying high in the short term, causing market fluctuations; however, as long as war is avoided, the worst-case scenario can be sidestepped. If the US ultimately compromises and lifts the blockade, the medium to long-term outlook remains positive📈.
💡 Conclusion: Be cautious of the short-term volatility brought by high oil prices, but there's no need to be overly pessimistic about the macro situation.
#宏观经济 #中东局势 #crudeoil