宏观链瞰者 _ MacroCryptoInsight

Market shake-up! Trump's "Art of the Deal" backfires, how should we view the situation in Iran? What impact does it have on our wallets? Four key points👇
1️⃣ The King gets bitten: Trump's exaggerated push for "winning big" has backfired, intensifying domestic political pressure on the other side, and directly pushing the fragile US-Iran negotiations into a deep freeze.
2️⃣ Iran gets tough: The US misjudged Iran’s previous "soft" stance. Currently, all factions in Iran are speaking with one voice, unifying internally and making no concessions on key issues like nuclear negotiations.
3️⃣ Situation forecasting: Negotiation difficulties are at a hellish level, but a full-scale war is unlikely. The Strait blockade evolves into a game of chicken, with Iran continuously raising Trump's political costs through marginal conflicts, seeing who blinks first.
4️⃣ Market impact: The blockade creates a real energy shortfall, leading to oil prices staying high in the short term, causing market fluctuations; however, as long as war is avoided, the worst-case scenario can be sidestepped. If the US ultimately compromises and lifts the blockade, the medium to long-term outlook remains positive📈.
💡 Conclusion: Be cautious of the short-term volatility brought by high oil prices, but there's no need to be overly pessimistic about the macro situation.
#宏观经济 #中东局势 #crudeoil

Overview of the Federal Reserve's October FOMC Decision

✅ Rate cut of 25 basis points as expected, bringing the rate range to 3.75%-4.00%, with balance sheet reduction stopping from December 1.

📊 Economic Status: Moderate expansion in activity, slowing job growth, slight increase in unemployment rate but still low, inflation rising compared to the beginning of the year and remaining high.

🗳️ Rare two-sided divergence! 2 votes against: Schmid advocates for maintaining the interest rate, Milan calls for a 50 basis point rate cut.

⚠️ Powell pours cold water: Significant internal divergence, a rate cut in December is by no means a sure thing, missing data may pause adjustments, and statements are more hawkish than expected.

#美联储政策 #FOMC #BTC #ETH

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✨Tonight, the Federal Reserve is set to cut interest rates by 25 basis points!

Let's briefly review historical data to see how major asset classes perform during rate cut cycles:

📈 U.S. Stocks: S&P 500 averages a 15% increase (especially in technology/consumer sectors)
⚜️ Gold: Increases by 10-20%, benefiting from safe-haven demand and low interest rates
📋 Bonds: 10-year U.S. Treasury yield decreases, prices rise; the longer the duration, the more attractive
⛽️ Commodities: Oil/Copper depend on demand; if there's a soft landing, prices rise, if hard landing, they fall
💵 U.S. Dollar: DXY usually drops by 5-10%, which is favorable for emerging markets
🎁 Bitcoin: Historically, it has doubled during all three rate cut cycles; the king of risk assets

🌊 Rate cuts = liquidity injection; risk assets often surge first!

‼️ But don't go All In; keep an eye on employment data to guard against a hard landing!

#美联储降息预期 #FOMC前瞻

🚀 Figma, the AI-powered design collaboration tool, saw its stock price soar 256% on its first day of trading in the US on 7/31, with a market value skyrocketing to $57.3 billion!

💥 Projected revenue for 2024 is $749 million, reaching $228 million in Q1 2025, a year-over-year surge of 48% and 46%, respectively, showing strong growth momentum!

📈 The market is optimistic with projections for PS to reach 55x and 40x in 2025/26, leading the future trends of AI + design!

🌟 Figma founder Dylan holds over 2.3 million $AGLD tokens (worth $1.76 million), making up the largest holding in his address, along with ETH, PEOPLE, and LOOT NFTs, showcasing impressive on-chain assets!

💰 #Figma #AI #AGLD #ETH

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