Chillin' and summarizing three situations for shorting. The first scenario is quite common: when the hourly and 15-minute charts show a spike upwards, in the past, you could mindlessly short on such spikes with a success rate hitting around 90%. But lately, the whales have switched things up; they’ve figured out the spike-and-short trick, and often these huge spikes continue to rise. So, when you see a spike over 50 points, you can short with a light position, but if it doesn't drop, just cut your losses.
The second scenario is shorting with a -2 fee rate. The likelihood of successfully shorting these coins is still pretty high, as long as you can withstand the initial high fees. You can rake in profits from the shorts, but the downside is that the drop you can capitalize on might be similar to the fees you pay. Overall, you’ve got about an 80% chance of covering the losses from the fees.
The third scenario boasts a 100% success rate for shorting, characterized by the futures price being significantly lower than the spot price. The condition is that the difference between the futures and the spot price exceeds 30%. The success rate can hit 100% because this price gap results from the whales dumping huge short positions. When the whales start shorting, it’s a sign they’re either preparing to or are already unloading.